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NL Rookie of the Year race: How MLB season so far has impacted odds

We discuss the NL Rookie of the Year race after the first two months of the 2023 regular season.

Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks celebrates with teammates after a walk-off two RBI single during the ninth inning of the MLB game against the Colorado Rockies at Chase Field on June 01, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks defeated the Rockies 5-4. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Hard as it is to believe, we’re now two full months through the 2023 MLB season. The sample size is a bit bigger now, meaning we can say with a bit more confidence which breakouts are for real and which slow starts may not be much of a fluke after all. The landscape among National League rookies has shifted quite a bit over the past few weeks — Francisco Alvarez has caught fire for the New York Mets, Casey Schmitt and Matt McLain have come up swinging for the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds while all-world prospect Elly de la Cruz’s time draws near — and the Rookie of the Year market has responded accordingly.

So, just like we did at the beginning of May, let’s celebrate the start of June with a look at how the past month has impacted the AL MVP odds over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Updated NL Rookie of the Year odds as of June 2

Corbin Carroll +110 Francisco Alvarez +600 James Outman +700
Elly De La Cruz +1600 Kodai Senga +2200 Eury Perez +2500
Matt McLain +2500 Spencer Steer +3000 Miguel Vargas +3000
Brett Baty +3000 Casey Schmidt +3500 Dominic Fletcher +5000

NL Rookie of the Year race: Takeaways and best bets

Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

He’s the favorite for a reason. After a 32-game showing at the end of last season, Carroll broke camp with the Diamondbacks this spring and has dominated in the time since. He’s currently hitting .284 with nine home runs and 24 RBI in 54 games this season, which is good for a OPS+ of 143. Carroll’s impacted the game outside of the batter’s box as well, as he’s tallied 16 stolen bases (he ranks in the 99th percentile in sprint speed) and ranks in the 93rd percentile in outs above average.

Carroll is an incredible all-around player who impacts the game in countless ways, and his odds for the Rookie of the Year Award reflect that.

Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds

Steer just capped an incredible month of May that saw him hit .318 with six home runs and 19 RBIs. In total, Steer is batting .289 on the season (tops among NL rookies) to go along with eight home runs and 28 RBI. Steer also has some positional versatility going for him, as he’s already played first and third base in the Majors. (He also saw some time at second base in MLB last season, and has played shortstop and right field in the minor leagues.)

It’s also worth mentioning Elly De La Cruz (+1600), Steer’s soon-to-be-teammate with the Reds. While De La Cruz has yet to be called up, he’s already become the thing of legend in Triple-A, and is currently hitting .293 with 11 home runs and 33 RBI in 35 games with the Louisville Bats. He has the power and pedigree to make an immediate impact the Major League level, and is worth watching once he gets promoted.