Orioles vs. Guardians: Picks, predictions, how to watch Wednesday’s game

The Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians square off on Wednesday with first pitch set for 6:10 p.m. ET. The game takes place at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio and will only be available on local TV or through an MLB.tv subscription. Jordan Lyles (9-9, 4.45 ERA) will start for the Orioles with Triston McKenzie (9-10, 3.17 ERA) on the mound for the Guardians.

Baltimore (67-61) lost its previous two games and will enter Wednesday three games behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the final American League Wild Card spot. Lyles will make his 27th start of his first year with the Orioles and is coming off an outing where he allowed two runs (one earned) over seven innings against the Chicago White Sox. Baltimore ranks 25th in on-base percentage (.304), and Anthony Santander has a team-high in home runs (23) and RBI (73).

Cleveland (68-59) won the first game of this series 5-1 on Tuesday night and is holding on to a 1.5-game lead over the Minnesota Twins for the top spot of the American League Central. McKenzie will make his 25th appearance and 24th start of the season and allowed three runs over six innings against the Seattle Mariners in his last outing. Cleveland’s best offensive asset is its batting average (.251) that ranks 10th in the league, and Jose Ramirez ranks second in the MLB in RBI (106).

Orioles vs. Guardians

Pitchers: Jordan Lyles vs. Triston McKenzie
First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
Orioles local broadcast: MASN
Guardians local broadcast: Bally Sports Great Lakes
Live stream: MLB.tv (subscription)

Odds, picks & predictions

Run Line: Guardians -1.5 (+125)
Run total: 8
Moneyline odds: Guardians -170, Orioles +145

Moneyline pick: Orioles +145

Both offenses are relatively even and even with the Guardians having the pitching edge here, the value is on Baltimore with a strong return if it picks up an upset victory. Baltimore has not reached five runs in any of its last six games, and Cleveland did the same in four of its last five. With so much similarity in offenses scuffling a bit, it feels like this could go either way so let’s go with the team receiving the larger payout.

Player prop pick: Jordan Lyles over 3.5 strikeouts (+105)

The Orioles starter has a 7.5 K/9 heading into this matchup, but Lyles is generally trusted to go with a larger pitch count and should reach four K’s. He struck out more than 3.5 batters in four of his last six starts and can surpass this total even against a Guardians offense that strikes out just 7.0 times per game.

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