Orioles vs. Twins: Picks, predictions, how to watch Saturday’s game

The Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins square off on Saturday with first pitch set for 2:10 p.m. ET. The game takes place at Target Field in Minneapolis, MN and will only be available on local TV or through an MLB.tv subscription. The Orioles will send Jordan Lyles to the mound, and the Twins will counter with Sonny Gray.

After posting their first winning month since 2017, the Orioles (35-43) opened July with a gut-punch loss in Minnesota. Still, the O’s have won 14 of their previous 19 games. Top prospect Adley Rutschman has looked much more comfortable at the plate over the past few weeks, as he’s collected 10 extra-base hits and 9 RBIs in his past 13 games. Lyles hasn’t been as homer-prone as last year with the Rangers when he served up 38 home runs in 185 innings. After a fairly solid May, he posted a 6.28 ERA across five starts in June.

The Twins (44-36) rebounded from back-to-back walk-off losses to end June with a walk-off victory thanks to Byron Buxton on Friday night. Buxton has 10 homers and 16 extra-base hits over his past 24 games. Carlos Correa is slashing .352/.408/.562 with 18 extra-base hits and 28 runs scored across his past 41 games. Gray tossed seven scoreless frames in his most recent start and has recorded a 1.69 ERA in three starts since returning from the injured list on June 15.

Orioles vs. Twins

Pitchers: Jordan Lyles vs. Sonny Gray
First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
Orioles local broadcast: MASN 2
Twins local broadcast: Bally Sports North
Live stream: MLB.tv (subscription)

Odds, picks & predictions

Run Line: Twins -1.5 (-110)
Run total: 9
Moneyline odds: Twins -230, Orioles +195

Moneyline pick: Twins -230

Yes, the Twins are at home, have the better starting pitcher going and have some momentum following last night’s thrilling finish. However, I’m not sure the moneyline should be this lopsided considering the state of each team’s bullpen (Baltimore: pretty good; Minnesota: really awful). If the Orioles can keep this close, they will have a real chance to pull victory from the jaws of defeat as the Twins have consistently failed in the mid-to-late innings. However, Minnesota should be able to claim a sizable early lead against the struggling Lyles. In that case, the Twins are the better bet.

Player prop pick: Carlos Correa OVER 1.5 total bases (+100)

Correa has been swinging a hot bat since late April and has done fairly well against Lyles during his career, going 4-for-13. Expect the star shortstop to make some loud contact against the right-hander who carries a 5.23 expected ERA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.