Mets vs. Astros: Picks, predictions, how to watch Wednesday’s game

The New York Mets and Houston Astros square off on Wednesday, June 22 with first pitch set for 2:10 p.m. ET. The game takes place at Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX and will only be available on local TV or through an MLB.tv subscription. Carlos Carrasco (8-2, 3.96 ERA) will start for the Mets, while the Astros will start Luis Garcia (4-5, 3.41 ERA).

New York (45-25) will go for a split of this two-game series, and the Mets still have the highest record in the National League. Carrasco’s season-long numbers look solid with an ERA under 4, but there have been days he doesn’t have it, allowing at least 5 runs in three of 13 starts in 2022. New York has the No. 1 offense in on-base percentage (.333), and Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar both homered last night.

Houston (42-25) will go for its third consecutive victory, and the Astros will enter with a 10-game lead over the Texas Rangers for the top spot in the American League West. Garcia made 12 starts this season and allowed 2 runs on 5 hits over 6 innings with 9 strikeouts in his last start, a 9-2 victory over the Rangers. The Astros scored 8 runs last night, and Kyle Tucker broke the game open with a 3-run double in the fifth inning.

Mets vs. Astros

Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco vs. Luis Garcia
First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
Mets local broadcast: SNY
Astros local broadcast: AT&T SportsNet Southwest
Live stream: MLB.tv (subscription)

Odds, picks & predictions

Run line: Astros -1.5 (+150)
Run total: 8
Moneyline odds: Astros -140, Mets +120

Moneyline pick: Mets +120

This feels like more of a toss-up than oddsmakers have projected, and the Mets have decent value considering how good their offense has been in 2022. New York ranks third in runs per game (5.0), while Houston checks in at No. 17 in that category (4.3). There is not a significant pitching advantage in either direction, so let’s go with the better hitting team.

Player prop pick: Carlos Carrasco Over 4.5 strikeouts (-115)

Carrasco has been a high-strikeout thrower throughout his career, and he has a 9.0 K/9 this season. He struck out at least 5 batters in five consecutive games and reached 7 K’s in four of those outings. The Astros strike out the second-fewest times per game (7.3), but Carrasco should surpass this total.

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