Mets vs. Astros: Picks, predictions, how to watch Tuesday’s game

The New York Mets and Houston Astros square off on Tuesday with first pitch set for 8:10 p.m. ET. The game takes place at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas and will only be available on local TV or through an MLB.tv subscription. Trevor Williams (1-3, 3.53 ERA) will start for the Mets, while the Astros will start Jose Urquidy (5-3, 4.99 ERA).

New York (45-24) has the top record in the National League and won four of its last five games heading into Tuesday night. Williams made 12 appearances and five starts this season and will fill in for Tylor Megill, who has been added to the injured list. The Mets beat the Miami Marlins 6-0 last night, and centerfielder Brandon Nimmo recorded 3 hits in the victory.

Houston (41-25) won four of its last five games and will enter this series with a 10-game lead over every team in the National League West. Urquidy made 12 starts this season and allowed at least 3 earned runs each of his last four starts. The Astros beat the Chicago White Sox 4-3, and Mauricio Dubon reached base 3 times with 2 hits and a walk.

Mets vs. Astros

Pitchers: Trevor Williams vs. Jose Urquidy
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Mets local broadcast: SNY
Astros local broadcast: AT&T SportsNet Southwest
Live stream: MLB.tv (subscription)

Odds, picks & predictions

Run line: Astros -1.5 (+150)
Run total: 9
Moneyline odds: Astros -130, Mets +110

Moneyline pick: Mets +110

The pitching matchup is a bit of a wash as Williams has better numbers, though my of it came from the bullpen, and runs can be scored on Urquidy as we’ve seen recently. With that, let’s go with the better offense. The Mets rank No. 1 in on-base percentage (.334) and batting average (.261) in addition to second in runs per game (5.0), and they have the advantage at the plate over the Astros.

Player prop pick: Jose Urquidy Under 4.5 strikeouts (-175)

You will need to pay a significant price for much of a return, but it is highly unlikely Urquidy reaches 5 strikeouts in this matchup. The Mets strike out the sixth-fewest times per game (7.5), and he may not go deep into the game considering how many runs he has been giving up. Urquidy has low strikeout numbers with a 6.9 K/9 this season, and there’s a lot to like about the under in this spot.

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