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2023 MLB Draft Lottery Odds

The MLB Draft lottery will take place on Tuesday. We discuss who has the best odds.

A MLB logo is worn by Elvis Andrus #17 of the Oakland Athletics at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on May 22, 2022 in Anaheim, California. Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

The MLB will be trying out a new draft system in 2023. as part of the recent Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that ended the 2022 MLB lockout, there will now be a draft lottery system utilized every year. The 2023 MLB Draft Lottery will take place on Tuesday, December 6 at 8:30 p.m. ET on MLB Network. Rather than the team with the worst record from last season receiving the No. 1 overall pick automatically, there are now 18 teams with a shot at getting to select first overall next July.

Who has the best odds to win the No. 1 pick?

The three teams with the worst records in the 2022 season will share an equal chance of being awarded the No. 1 overall pick. The Washington Nationals, Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates all have the best odds to win the No. 1 overall draft pick. They are followed by the Cincinnati Reds and the Kansas City Royals for the teams with the best odds to draft first overall.

2023 MLB Draft Lottery Odds

Team Odds
Team Odds
Washington Nationals 16.50%
Oakland Athletics 16.50%
Pittsburgh Pirates 16.50%
Cincinnati Reds 13.20%
Kansas City Royals 10%
Detroit Tigers 7.50%
Texas Rangers 5.50%
Colorado Rockies 3.90%
Miami Marlins 2.70%
Los Angeles Angels 1.80%
Arizona Diamondbacks 1.40%
Chicago Cubs 1.10%
Minnesota Twins 0.90%
Boston Red Sox 0.80%
Chicago White Sox 0.60%
San Francisco Giants 0.50%
Baltimore Orioles 0.40%
Milwaukee Brewers 0.20%

What is a draft lottery?

Instead of the worst team automatically being awarded the first overall pick, a draft lottery system gives a percentage of odds based on where the team finished in the standings. The three teams with the worst records from the previous season will be given equal odds to land the top pick. This method is thought to prevent tanking, but it is too early to tell if that is working.

How does the draft lottery work?

The 18 teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs are entered into the draft lottery. Of the 18 teams eligible, six will be awarded a lottery spot based on this odds system. Once the six slots are decided, the draft order reverts to the inverse of the standings from the previous season for the remaining teams. This system will only apply for the first round, with rounds two to 20 using the inverse of last year’s standings.