We’ve officially reached the final weekend of the 2023 MLB regular season, meaning there are precious few opportunities left to find profitable player prop bets. Luckily, the schedule on Friday offers a full slate to choose from, so here are three of our favorite plays of the day (all odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook).
MLB player prop bets: Friday, September 29
Nick Pivetta, over 15.5 outs recorded (-105)
Pivetta has been great since being reinserted into Boston’s rotation earlier this month, with a 3.08 ERA in September and two consecutive quality starts — 6.1 innings of two-run ball against the Blue Jays and seven shutout innings last time out against the White Sox. His matchup on Friday night appears tough on paper, until you remember that the Orioles just clinched the AL East on Thursday and will likely be running out a bench-heavy lineup to give their regulars a much-deserved day off following a night of partying. Pivetta’s pitched into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts, and at pitcher-friendly Camden Yards against a diminished lineup, I think he’ll do so again on Friday.
Nick Martinez, over 4.5 strikeouts (+120)
I’ve been clamoring for San Diego to stop shuffling Martinez back and forth between the bullpen and rotation and let him be a starter full-time, and it took until the final couple weeks of the season for me to finally get my wish. The righty has excelled in the role all year, with 17 scoreless innings and a 0.65 WHIP across his last four proper starts (along with just one run allowed in 14 innings so far this month), and he’s cleared this strikeout prop in four of seven full outings this season. He threw 62 pitches over four scoreless innings against the Cardinals last time out, meaning he should be up to at least 75 or so today — good news against a White Sox team that is posting a 24.6% K rate vs. right-handers over the previous three weeks with a wRC+ mark sitting at an awful 69. If the Padres let Martinez go five innings tonight, he should hit this number.
Jorge Polanco, over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120)
Polanco and the Twins get to tee off in Coors Field on Friday night, a place where counting stats and extra-base hits grow on trees. The switch-hitting infielder has been much better from the right side of the plate this season, slashing .310/.341/.488 with four homers and seven extra-base hits, and he should be in position for a big performance against Rockies lefty Ty Blach. Blach has given up 23 hits and a whopping 41 hits across 25 innings over his last five starts; with an implied run total pushing seven (highest of today’s slate), Minnesota should have baserunners and run-scoring opportunities aplenty, and Polanco has been hitting toward the top of the team’s order whenever healthy.