It’s a full 15-game slate around the Majors today, although a handful of matinee starts means you’ll have to get some of those player prop bets in earlier than usual. With so many options to choose from and not a ton of time, we’re here to help you sort through it all with three of our favorite plays for Wednesday.
MLB player prop bets: Wednesday, July 26
Bryce Miller, over 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
Miller has been hovering right around this number of late, with exactly six Ks in four of his last six starts. But his matchup on Wednesday — and the fact that he’s getting plus odds here — have me more confident than those numbers would suggest. The Minnesota Twins have been more productive at the plate of late, but they’re still striking out at near-historic rates: Since July 1, Minnesota’s 29.8% K rate against right-handed pitching is a whopping 2.3 percentage points above the next-highest team. Miller is a 5-6 K pitcher even in a matchup-neutral context, and he shouldn’t be getting anywhere near this much juice in a spot like this.
Kyle Tucker and Chas McCormick, to record a hit (+130)
This kind of juice on two of the hottest hitters in baseball recording a hit? Sign me up. Texas Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney has actually pitched pretty well in two prior starts against the Houston Astros this season, but he’s been shaky against just about everybody else (5.40 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in the month of July), and McCormick and Tucker have been tearing the cover off the ball of late. The latter has posted a 1.456 OPS over his current 11-game hitting streak, recording a hit in all but two games this month, while the former is batting .355 with a 1.188 OPS in July. McCormick has a .338 average on the year against lefties, best of any right-handed hitter on the team, and if you’re worried about Tucker without the platoon advantage, don’t be: He’s hitting a whopping .361 against southpaws this season.
Gavin Williams, over 15.5 outs recorded (-115)
Folks appear to have soured on the rookie a bit of late, but the schedule hasn’t done him any favors with matchups against the Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers and Philadelphia Phillies this month. Things get far easier on Wednesday, as the top prospect will face off with the lowly Kansas City Royals for the third time in his young career. He found success in the prior two meetings, going 7 and then 5.2 innings. All we need is for the young righty to pitch into the sixth inning, something he’s done in four of six starts this season — and he should have no problem doing so again against quite possibly the worst offense in the Majors.