Rise and shine, baseball bettors. It’s a matinee-heavy slate on Saturday, June 10, which means you’ll have to make decisions on your MLB prop bets at bit earlier than usual. With all 30 teams in action, there’s a lot to sift through, so we’re here to help with three of our favorite plays for today’s games.
MLB player prop bets: Saturday, June 10th
Nathan Eovaldi, under 5.5 strikeouts (+115)
Eovaldi is in the midst of the best stretch of his career, with a microscopic 0.68 ERA — including not one but two complete games — over his last seven starts. But I’m still taking the under at this number, for a couple of reasons.
The first is the matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays have been baseball’s best offense this year against right-handed pitching, and they represent a major step up from the teams Eovaldi’s been facing during this hot stretch. He’s only faced three teams outside the top 12 in strikeout rate against righties this year. (Tampa, by contrast, is 22nd.) One of those three was the New York Yankees without Aaron Judge, which feels like it at least deserves an asterisk next to it. The other two were the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates, against whom Eovaldi struck out just 10 batters over 16 innings.
Which brings me to the other reason: For as good as he’s been, Eovaldi hasn’t been racking up the Ks of late. He’s only cleared this number twice since the start of May, against the Seattle Mariners and Oakland A’s — two of the worst lineups in baseball against righties. Even if he manages to keep things rolling against the Rays, I’ll take the plus odds here.
MacKenzie Gore, under 16.5 outs recorded (-125)
Speaking of tough matchups. The Atlanta Braves have been the league’s best offense against lefties, with a .909 team OPS, and that doesn’t bode well for Gore on Saturday. The former top prospect has had some trouble going deep into games this year, both because he generates lots of swings and misses (83rd percentile whiff rate) and because he walks too many batters (28th percentile walk rate) — neither of which are conducive to efficient outings. The lefty has cleared this bar (the equivalent of 5.2 innings) just three times in his last eight starts, and it’s hard to believe he’ll buck that trend against Ronald Acuna Jr. and company.
Ha-Seong Kim, over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Pro tip: If you can get plus odds on a total bases prop at Coors Field, you probably won’t go broke riding with it. But even beyond the thin air, Kim is set up for success on Saturday against Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland.
For starters, the San Diego Padres infielder has hit southpaws well all year, slashing .268/.358/.479 and even hitting leadoff against them in recent games — which means more at-bats and more opportunities to rack up hits. He’s also been hot overall in recent days, with a .806 OPS over the last two weeks. Freeland, by contrast, has struggled without the platoon advantage at Coors, allowing a .284/.342/.490 line to righties at home over his career. San Diego racked up nine runs in the series opener on Friday, and Kim combines that offensive upside with the best odds on the board.