World Series futures update: How MLB season so far has impacted odds

Hard as it is to believe, we’re now two full months through the 2023 MLB season. The sample size is a bit bigger now, meaning we can say with a bit more confidence which teams are contenders and which are pretenders. The landscape has shifted quite a bit over the past few weeks — the Tampa Bay Rays have slowed their roll a bit, the Texas Rangers look like world-beaters and the reigning champion Houston Astros are starting to get healthy — and the World Series futures market has responded accordingly.

So, just like we did at the beginning of May, let’s celebrate the start of June with a look at how the past month has impacted each team’s odds to win it all over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Updated World Series odds as of June 1

Atlanta Braves +450 Houston Astros +500 Tampa Bay Rays +600
Houston Astros +650 New York Yankees +900 New York Mets +1500
Texas Rangers +1800 San Diego Padres +1900 Toronto Blue Jays +2000
Minnesota Twins +2200 Milwaukee Brewers +2500 St. Louis Cardinals +3500

Despite somehow managing to drop their three-game set against a historically bad Oakland Athletics team this week, the Braves find themselves as betting favorite at +450. The surging Astros have overtaken the Rays for the second spot, as a healthy Jose Altuve (and a favorable schedule) has allowed Houston to get hot while injuries take their toll in Tampa. After that, we find a lot of talented teams still stuck in neutral: The Mets, Padres, Blue Jays and Cardinals were all expected to find themselves near the top of the standings in spring, but all of them are mired in mediocrity through two months.

Given all this movement, where should you be putting your money at this still-early stage? Here are a couple of best bets to take home the Commissioner’s Trophy.

World Series odds: Best bets

Texas Rangers, +1800

I’ll admit to being a little puzzled as to why the market is so reluctant to embrace the Rangers right now. Sure, they’re due for a little bit of regression on offense, but even a little bit of regression would still leave Texas’ lineup as among the deepest and most dangerous in the game — Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Jung and Jonah Heim might be the sturdiest top six of any team right now.

There are question marks, to be sure — how much can you trust Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi over a whole season? Will Jacob deGrom ever stay healthy? — but you could say that about just about every team in the league, and there’s as much potential as there is risk in that starting rotation. At this price, the division-leading Rangers are a massive bargain.

New York Mets, +1500

I know, I know, no team has pulled the Jekyll-and-Hyde act like the Mets this year, seemingly turning the corner only to stub their toe and drop a series against the Colorado Rockies. But considering how much turmoil this team has been through already this year, inconsistency is to be expected — and New York still has as much, if not more, potential than anyone. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are now healthy, and it feels like just a matter of time before they form a wicked top three along with electric rookie Kodai Senga. If they can find some halfway reliable back-end options among Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and the rehabbing Jose Quintana, this team is rock solid and worth the plunge at this price.