It’s a full Saturday slate of MLB action, but rain in the forecast up and down the East Coast could wreak havoc on teams’ — and bettors’ — plans. With that in mind, here are three of our recommended MLB player props for Saturday, April 29 that avoid any inclement weather.
MLB player prop bets: Saturday, April 29th
Nolan Arenado, over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Yes, Arenado has gotten off to a slow start this season, and yes, he’s facing demigod Clayton Kershaw at Dodger Stadium. But Arenado has actually owned the future Hall of Famer in his career, slashing .313/.343/.582 with five homers in 70 plate appearances over the years. This seems like a good spot for the third baseman to break out of his early slump.
Reid Detmers, over 6.5 strikeouts (-135)
Detmers has cleared this number in two of his four starts, while punching out six in his last outing against the Kansas City Royals. And that may be understating the lefty’s swing-and-miss ability, as his whiff rate ranks in the top quarter of the league while his slider and curveball have seen big upticks in terms of earning whiffs.
But the real reason to take the over here is Detmer’s opponent: the Milwaukee Brewers have been dreadful against southpaws this season, not only holding the league’s third-lowest OPS but also posting far and away the highest K rate vs. left-handed pitching.
Brad Keller, over 2.5 earned runs (-120)
Keller has allowed at least three runs in each of his last two outings, and the only reason he avoided doing so in his opening start against the Minnesota Twins was some extreme luck with runners on base: The righty allowed five hits and four walks in 4.2 innings but managed to escape with only two earned runs on his ledger.
He gets the Twins again today, and Minnesota’s lineup is finally rounding into form now that it’s gotten key contributors back from injury. There are favorable matchups up and down the lineup today, as Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa all boast homers against Keller in their careers.