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Fantasy Football Picks: Chiefs vs. 49ers DraftKings NFL Super Bowl 58 Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Sunday’s Super Bowl matchup between the Chiefs and the 49ers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

AFC Championship - Kansas City Chiefs v Baltimore Ravens Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

It took six months to get to this moment, but we’re finally here. The Kansas City Chiefs squaring off with the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl — a rematch four years in the making.

Obviously, this is a weekend all about snacks, friends, commercials and [checks notes] Usher; but before all that gets going, you’ll need to set a few lineups. So let’s dive in and break down everything you’ll need to know.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $6M Super Bowl LVIII Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Super Bowl)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Christian McCaffrey ($18,000 CP) - There are a lot of reasons to not put McCaffrey in your Captain’s spot, with popularity and cost being at the top of that list. However, I simply can not imagine fading the veteran in this contest. Putting aside McCaffrey’s insane ability to find the end zone — a trait that is completely backed up by an NFC-high 12.5 expected rushing touchdowns — the former first-round pick just never leaves the field. Not including Week 17 against Washington, where an injury forced McCaffrey to exit early, the RB logged at least a 75% snap share in 12 of his 15 starts during the regular season. He’s followed that up by registering a 98.4% snap rate in the Divisional Round versus the Packers and a 90.9% snap rate in the NFC Championship Game. Few running backs still operate at that level of volume, let alone do so as efficiently as McCaffrey. Don’t forget he’s also heavily involved in the 49ers’ passing attack, as he’s racked up 17 targets and 11 receptions so far in the playoffs. Again, there are ways to build a lineup for the Super Bowl without McCaffrey at 1.5x value, but you’re going to need him in that lineup somewhere.

Travis Kelce ($15,300 CP) - Speaking of popular assets, let’s discuss the little known tight end for Kansas City. He’s definitely not currently one of the most famous people in the entire world. No, sir. Anyway, after not reaching the 1,000 receiving yard plateau for the first time in ages, Kelce has come alive in the playoffs, leading the Chiefs in virtually every single receiving category and averaging 23.6 DKFP per game in the process. As for Sunday specifically, 49ers D/ST ($4,400) has had its issues with opposing TEs all year long. During the regular season, San Francisco conceded the eighth-most targets per game (7.4) and the 10th-most receptions per game (5.2) to the position. In the playoffs? Green Bay tight ends racked up 11 targets in the Divisional Round, while Sam LaPorta turned 13 targets into nine catches and 97 yards in the Conference Championship. I’d expect this trend to continue and for Kelce to see double-digit targets.


FLEX Plays

Rashee Rice ($7,600) - We have to start any conversation about Rice with the red flag. After not being listed on the Chiefs’ injury report on Wednesday, Rice was limited on Thursday due to issues with both ankles. Gamesmanship? Maybe. Concerning? Definitely. Still, in a vacuum, this seems like too cheap a price tag for a rookie wideout that has clearly cemented himself as Kansas City’s No. 1 wide receiver. He and Patrick Mahomes ($10,600) gelled in the season’s second half, with Rice averaging 18.8 DKFP per game dating back to Week 12. The 6’2 wideout has also been the Chiefs top option in red zone this season. In fact, among AFC skill-position assets, only Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley and Tyreek Hill saw more targets inside the 20-yard line than Rice’s 22. If he can find the end zone, he might break open the slate.

Chiefs D/ST ($3,400) - It feels like the “Value Play Du Jour” for this contest is becoming Kyle Juszczyk ($800), and while I don’t necessarily hate it in theory, the veteran offers little to no upside in terms of raw fantasy point output. For me, Chiefs D/ST is the way to go when attempting to save salary. The unit has looked dominant so far in the playoffs, shutting down two of the most explosive offenses in football — and that shouldn’t come as a shock. During the regular season, Kansas City ranked second in the NFL in pressure rate (27.8%) and sacks (57). The Chiefs also surrendered an opponent scoring drive on just 28.5% of possessions, which was the second-lowest mark in the league. This is one of the best defenses in the NFL. Full stop.


Fades

Brock Purdy ($10,000) - Look, I’ve been impressed with what Purdy’s accomplished and, crucially, in the context of DFS, it doesn’t really matter if the QB is “good” or not. It’s just how many DKFP he scores. Yet my confidence in the Chiefs’ defense inherently means I think this is an underwhelming matchup for the former Mr. Irrelevant, and Purdy’s had his issues against top-tier defensive units. To wit, Kansas City finished as the league’s seventh-best defense according to DVOA. Of the teams that ranked ahead of the Chiefs, Purdy faced the Steelers, Cowboys, Browns and Ravens during the regular season. He averaged 14.7 DKFP in those starts. Meanwhile, Kansas City hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer all year. Its on the heels of shutting down both Josh Allen and MVP Lamar Jackson. Would it shock me if Purdy isn’t at his best in the biggest spotlight of his life? It would not.


THE OUTCOME

It’s funny how writing and researching this article can change your perspective on things. When I opening this document, I fully intended to ride with the 49ers, yet I’ve fully talked myself into taking the points with the Chiefs. At the end of the day, it’s Patrick Mahomes equipped with the best defense he’s ever had. That’s a terrifying combination.

Final Score: Kansas City 24, San Francisco 20

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $6M Super Bowl LVIII Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Super Bowl)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.