The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1.2M Summer Sand Trap [$250K to 1st]
The Field
The field this week comprises only the top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings and no alternates or qualifiers will be added to the field. After this event, the top 50 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will then qualify for the next event (the BMW Championship). As for the field, we have one of the strongest of the year outside the majors. Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Scottie Scheffler are all set to return after extended absences after the Open Championship.
The most notable absence though is Justin Thomas who, despite ranking 25th in the OWGR, did not make the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings. Since this event has been cut down to 70 players, there is now no cut attached so all 70 players will get to play the weekend — assuming they don’t withdraw or get DQ’d. This is big for DFS purposes and will mean that you can take a few more chances when you are targeting players lower down in the salary range.
The Course
TPC Southwind—Memphis, Tennessee
Par 70, 7,237; Greens: Bermuda
TPC Southwind is a tricky, tree-lined PGA TOUR venue that features plenty of water and smaller-than-average Bermuda greens. While it bears some similarities to other recent courses like TPC River Highlands (Travelers) and Harbour Town GC (RBC Heritage), it has generally been a much tougher venue than those two over its lifespan. Southwind isn’t an overly long course, but there are very tight fairways and numerous doglegs that really stretch out some of the holes. On average, fairways here are 5-7% harder to hit than an average PGA TOUR stop, with greens being equally tough to find. The course has produced winners at 16 and 13 under par the last three seasons and played as the 14th toughest course on the PGA TOUR (out of 41) in 2020, yielding a 69.56 scoring average.
As a traditional par 70, TPC Southwind has just two par 5s, which play as the two easiest holes on the course. The 16th will be reachable in two by almost everyone and is probably the only hole on the course where players will lose ground if they don’t walk away with at least a birdie. The course features four par 3s as well, two of which play as “island style” greens. As for the par 4s, there are six of them that measure in at 450 yards or longer, and only two that come in under 400 yards. While this might not faze players given today’s technology, the doglegs on several of these holes mean longer approaches are often necessary to reach the smaller than normal greens. Despite the doglegs, several of these par 4s play tough off the tee with water in play on either side.
With so much water in play, TPC Southwind always sees some of the highest “balls hit in water” rates on the PGA TOUR. The water and narrow fairways put a premium on ball striking, and approach stats are where you should start when narrowing down your plays this week. Just to give you an idea of how important strong tee-to-green play is at TPC Southwind, 2020 winner Justin Thomas actually lost strokes putting for the week of his win but was the best in the field tee-to-green (and gained 7.7 strokes on approach).
TPC Southwind isn’t overly long but requires elite ball-striking and will dish out big penalties to those who don’t bring their A-game this week.
2023 Weather: The weather this week isn’t terrible but it does hint at the potential for some stoppages. Summer thunderstorms are frequent in this area and scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast for each of the first three days. It’s hard to say how this will affect play but stoppages could push round one into Friday. Thursday a.m. also looks like it has the potential to be a little gusty, with winds pushing over 10 mph. If the forecast holds, the Thursday afternoon starters could gain a slight advantage. It is a reduced field, so wave stacking isn’t as big a deal as it would be for a regular field event but the potential for a windier start still merits watching the weather this week up until lock.
Last 5 winners
**2022—Will Zalatoris -15 (over Sepp Straka playoff)
2021—Tony Finau -20 (over Cameron Smith playoff)
2020—Dustin Johnson -30 (over Harris English -19)
2019—Patrick Reed -16 (over Abraham Ancer -15)
2018—Bryson DeChambeau -18 (Tony Finau -14)
**The only year this event was played at TPC Southwind
Winning Trends
Eight out of the last 12 winners of this event finished T22 or better in their previous start before winning.
Eight of the last nine winners of this event have finished T15 or better at one of the year’s final two majors.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship winner Will Zalatoris 15-under-par
Lead in form (21-20-28-MC-2)
SG: OTT— +1.8
SG: APP— +7.7
SG: TTG— +9.4
SG: ATG— -0.1
SG: PUTT— +2.5
- In 2021, Abraham Ancer won the WGC event played at Southwind and was top 10 in strokes gained approach.
- Last season, Zalatoris was even better in that category, gaining 7.7 strokes on approach and over 9.0 strokes tee to green.
- In 2020 the course played a little tougher, and Justin Thomas beat the field by multiple strokes despite losing strokes to the field on the greens. He gained over 13 strokes Tee to Green for the week and was third in SG: Approach and second in SG: Around the Green.
- Thomas’ win was a stark contrast to 2019 when Brooks Koepka gained 9.3 strokes putting for the week and ranked just 11th in SG: Approach, but also won the event by three strokes.
- Players landing inside the top 20 and upwards have generally out-paced the field in greens hit as well as fairways gained throughout the week. While there will always be outliers like Koepka’s volatile putting week from 2019 — strong tee-to-green play is essential at TPC Southwind and the most likely route for success this week.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Collin Morikawa +2200 and $9,000
Comparables:
- Tyrrell Hatton +2200 and $9,700
- Rickie Fowler +3000 and $9,500
- Tommy Fleetwood +2500 and $9,100
Tom Kim +3500 and $7,800
Comparables:
- Sam Burns +3500 and $8,100
- Matthew Fitzpatrick +3500 and $8,600
- Hideki Matsuyama +3500 and $8,400
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Horses for Courses (TPC Southwind)
1. Hideki Matsuyama (best finishes: 2nd-2021): Matsuyama has played this venue four of the last five seasons and gained over 3.0 strokes on approach in his last two appearances. In 2021, when he finished second, he gained over 8.0 strokes on approach alone.
2. Matt Fitzpatrick (best finishes: T5- 2022, T6-2020, T4-2019): Fitzpatrick was in the hunt for the win after three rounds in 2020 but faltered on Sunday. He gained an incredible +10 strokes putting in 2020 and has now finished top 10 at Southwind in three of the last four years.
3. Jason Day (best finishes: T6-2020, T10-2018): Day has never won at Southwind but he’s played here numerous times and shown good upside at the venue. He finished 6th here as recently as 2020 and was 10th in 2018. Coming off a T2 at the Open, he’ll be looking to add to his Byron Nelson win from earlier in the season.
RECENT FORM
1. JT Poston ($7,300; T7-T2): Poston has had a great summer earmarked by three top-10 finishes in his last four starts. He’s gained over 4.5 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts as well.
2. Joohyung Kim ($7,800; T2-T6): Kim grabbed a share of 6th at the Scottish Open and also finished runner-up at the Open Championship, his best-ever finish in a major.
3. Rory McIlroy ($7,600; T6-win): Despite coming up short again in a major, McIlroy enters this week on a bit of a roll. He’s not finished outside the top 10 in seven starts now and won just two events ago in Scotland. Seeing McIlroy atop the leaderboard again this week wouldn’t be a shock.
4. Cameron Young ($9,300; T2-T2): Young remains winless on the PGA TOUR but certainly merits a mention for how well he is playing. He grabbed a T8 at the Open and finished T6 at the John Deere last month as well.
5. Byeong Hun An ($7,500; T2-T23-T3): An grabbed a share of 2nd last week at the Wyndham and ranks second in this field in strokes gained total stats over the last six weeks. The South Korean is playing solid golf right now and looks primed for a potential playoff run.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Scheffler and Tom Kim a nice duo
Elite iron play won the day here last season, so while the $12,000 price is high, prioritizing Scottie Scheffler ($12,100) this week should be high on your list. Scheffler ranks first in strokes gained approach stats in short and long-term form and has been absurdly good at these kinds of target golf tracks in 2023, posting a win at TPC Sawgrass and TPC Scottsdale and top-five finishes at Colonial, Muirfield Village, and TPC River Highlands. To offset his high price, pairing him with super-undervalued Tom Kim ($7,800) in this format also makes sense. Kim has been great over the last month and posted a solid T13 at this venue last season, despite losing strokes putting. Other potential cash game targets include Collin Morikawa ($9,000), Russell Henley ($7,800) and Adam Svensson ($6,700).
Tournaments: Play for the Fleetwood breakthrough
If you are planning to fade the top few golfers this week, you are definitely taking a bold approach in your lineup build. That said, there are players in the $9,000 who can break through in a field like this and Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100) is someone who has shown us that his true upside is good enough to take on the best. He skipped this event last year but posted T4 and T14 finishes at this event in 2018 and 2019. Tony Finau ($8,700 -see below) is another player to consider for this format, as is Cameron Davis ($7,200), who has played very consistent of late and grabbed a share of 13th at this event last season. Other potential GPP targets this week include Aaron Rai ($7,000), Andrew Putnum ($6,400), and Sam Ryder ($6,000).
MY PICK: Tony Finau ($8,700)
With Finau coming in off a solid T7 finish in Minnesota, this looks like a nice spot to take advantage of what is a very easy-to-fit-in price for DFS. The now six-time PGA winner hasn’t had the breakthrough season he wanted in the majors but does have a win on the year and plenty of motivation with both the playoffs and the Ryder Cup looming. Finau comes in ranked 10th in the FedEx Cup playoffs but only 19th on the Ryder Cup point list, with just two starts left before qualification ends.
Motivation aside, he also heated up with his putter and short game in his last start in Minnesota, which is a good sign that things may be turning. The 5.8 strokes he gained putting and around the greens was his best week in that area since he won in Mexico and TPC Southwind does tend to put pressure on short games, thanks to the smaller Bermuda greens. While he’s had up and downs at this venue, his T5 finish in 2022 is a good reminder of how well he can go on these kinds of setups when his putter is working. At under $9,000, he looks like a great core play to build around for DFS, and at +2800 makes sense as an outright target for this week on the DraftKings Sportsbook as well.
MY SLEEPER: Denny McCarthy ($7,500)
If you’ve backed Denny McCarthy before, you know that he is a streaky kind of player. He’s prone to blowup weeks where his ball striking lets us down or his putter runs a little cold, but his upside is undeniable at this point. The American has recorded nine top 20 finishes since Pebble Beach in February and is coming off a two-month run that saw him post a runner-up finish in an elevated event (Memorial), a T20 at a major, and two additional top 10 finishes.
While the ball-striking from last week is a concern, McCarthy has improved his off-the-tee game this year and has bounced back quickly from poor weeks, recording his 2nd place at the Memorial directly after a poor week at Colonial. TPC Southwind is a more technical kind of setup that should favor a player like McCarthy, who managed his way well around the course in 2022, gaining over 5.0 strokes putting and around the greens. At $7,500, he makes sense as an upside target for DFS and makes for a nice longshot play in the outright and top 10 markets (+550) on the DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1.2M Summer Sand Trap [$250K to 1st]
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