I had to pay for Twitter Blue this morning. Or X Blue. Whatever it’s called. I bring this up because that’s the level of commitment I have to writing this article and being as up to date as possible on all baseball news. That’s $10 a month to the grubby hands of Elon Musk. I shudder just thinking about it.
I shudder less when thinking about tonight’s 12-game MLB slate, so let’s dive in.
Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians, $8,600 - Miller doesn’t strikeout as many batters as you’d expect from someone who averages 99.0 mph with his fastball, but the rookie has been more than solid in 2023, sitting on a 3.70 ERA and a 3.48 FIP. Miller’s also appeared to step his game up a level the past couple weeks, surrendering just a single earned run over his last two starts. I’d expect that level of dominance to continue on Tuesday evening, with the Guardians currently one of the best possible matchups in all of baseball. Cleveland owns a 72 wRC+ with a league-low .109 ISO across the past 14 days. The team can simply do nothing with the bats.
Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $6,100 - Speaking of rookie RHPs who can throw 100 mph, I continue to not understand Rodriguez’s week-to-week pricing. While the 23-year-old’s 5.44 ERA remains ugly, Rodriguez has been a completely different pitcher since he was recalled in July. In fact, Rodriguez sports a 2.35 ERA and a 2.97 FIP across his last five starts, a span of time where he’s holding opposing hitters to a minuscule .209 wOBA. It’s not like the Blue Jays are a terrifying matchup, either. Despite hitting five home runs in its most recent game, Toronto has managed only an 88 wRC+ the past two weeks.
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians, $6,400 - Let’s just say there was a reason that the Dodgers traded away Noah Syndergaard ($5,600). The veteran RHP has been awful in 2023, pitching to a 6.22 xERA and a surrendering 2.11 opponent home runs per nine — the fourth-most of any player with at least 75.0 innings thrown. As such, the Dodgers are in possession of one of this slate’s highest projected team totals. Betts should be a huge part of any offensive success, carrying an eye-popping 187 wRC+ since the he played in the Midsummer Classic.
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $4,300 - It’s difficult to put into words how good Mountcastle has been since the All-Star break. The veteran is slashing .377/.438/.613 with a 189 wRC+, which includes a series against these same Blue Jays where Mountcastle racked up 11 hits in four contests. Mountcastle has also been at his best against LHPs in 2023, as evidenced by a 198 wRC+ in his 131 plate appearances within the split. Yusei Kikuchi ($8,900) has been amazing lately, but Mountcastle just seems unstoppable.
Jake Burger, Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres, $4,000 - This isn’t a knock on Blake Snell ($10,700), who has been nearly untouchable for the better part of three months. No, this is about Burger’s ability to be a high-ceiling asset against left-handed pitching. In 106 plate appearances versus LHPs in 2023, Burger has produced a .344 ISO and a 145 wRC+. With a little luck, those numbers could be even better, as Burger’s .412 expected wOBA within the split is one of the best mark’s in all of baseball.
Ji Hwan Bae, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $2,700 - Bae doesn’t exactly have a Baseball Savant page that will make you drool, but is he expected to bat leadoff for the Pirates this evening against Adam Wainwright ($5,200). You know, the Adam Wainwright that has registered a 12.72 ERA since June 24. Lefties like Bae have hit Wainwright particularly hard in 2023, with the 166 the 41-year-old has faced combining for a .457 wOBA. Bae can also do some damage outside the batter’s box, with 20 steals already to his name.
Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets, $6,700 - Acuna is the most expensive positional asset on the board — but for good reason. Not only does the 25-year-old lead the league in expected wOBA by a considerable margin (.453), he also has 56 stolen bases. When we talk about five-tool players, we’re talking about Acuna. With Tylor Megill ($5,800) struggling to a 6.34 xERA in 2023, I have a hard time seeing a scenario where Acuna and the Braves don’t run wild on the scoreboard.
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $4,800 - Reynolds has 33 career at-bats against the aforementioned Wainwright — the most of any pitcher he’s seen throughout his time with the Pirates. Shockingly, he’s yet to hit a homer off the veteran. I think that changes tonight. Reynolds, a switch-hitter, has been at his best in 2023 versus RHPs. As a lefty, Reynolds has managed a .238 ISO with a 123 wRC+. Reynolds has also been red-hot in August, with a .958 OPS in the month.
Stone Garrett, Washington Nationals at New York Yankees, $3,600 - At this point, you sort of have to stack against Carlos Rodon ($7,800) until he proves he’s back. The lefty has a 7.38 FIP and is allowing 2.67 opponent home runs per nine in 2023 — and that was prior to the hamstring ailment that landed him on the 15-day IL. Meanwhile, Garrett has a 168 wRC+ since August 1 and a .248 ISO versus southpaws for the season as a whole. That’s a lot of potential at a price tag well below $4K.
Jack Suwinski, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $3,400 - Suwinski’s big issue is contact rate. The LHB has struck out in 34.0% of his plate appearances this season, with that figure jumping to 38.5% since the All-Star break. However, Suwinski is also 97th percentile in barrel rate and his .481 expected wOBA on batted ball events is elite. If anyone ever needed a matchup with Wainwright, it’s the Pirates’ OF. Wainwright didn’t register a single whiff in his most recent outing. Suwinski is assured to put the ball into play on Tuesday.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.