Game 4 of the NBA Finals. The Nuggets and Heat haven’t played enough games to be considered rivals. Not by miles. But they both have something in common, and that is the goal of entering the pantheon of teams with titles. This showcase of games has uncovered the minors and elevated the statuses of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, both of whom are idols. Lean back in the recliner and try to figure out which stats will be vital. With a Denver win, the Nuggets will be one step closer to the march down the aisle while the Heat are fighting for their survival.
DraftKings Sportsbook has this game with a 211 total with the visiting Nuggets favored by 3.5 points.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1.25M Shootaround Special [$250K to 1st] (DEN vs MIA)
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Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
Captain’s Picks
Gabe Vincent ($9,000 CP): If I want to fit as many studs as possible, Vincent is the way. Constructing a viable lineup with Jokic at captain is tough because that leaves a $5,320 average for the five remaining UTIL slots. Vincent is coming off a game in which he shot 2-of-10 from the field and 1-of-6 from downtown for a measly 11.5 DKFP. That said, he put up 33 DKFP in each of the first two games and he’s played 32, 32 and 38 minutes. Minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe! He derives most of his value from scoring because he doesn’t grab many rebounds or dish out dimes, so the floor is low when he’s not efficient, as evidenced by the Game 3 performance. He has attempted at least 10 shots in every game this series, though, and racked up two steals in each of the last two games. It’s within the range of outcomes that he gets hot and the projected ownership in the CPT slot is very low.
Bam Adebayo ($14,100 CP): If “paying up”, Adebayo is a fine option. He’s $3,300 cheaper than Murray, $4,200 cheaper than Butler and $9,300 cheaper than Jokic. Butler has reached 40 DKFP just once in this series. Murray has the higher ceiling but it’s likely that both score in the 40 to 50 DKFP range. Adebayo has gone for at least 50 DKFP in two of the three games in this series. He’s scored over 20 points in every game, pulled down double-digit rebounds in two of three, dished out a total of 12 assists and blocked three shots this series.
UTIL Plays
Christian Braun ($2,200): Braun will likely be highly-rostered so that always gives me pause, but it’s hard to ignore the price and recent production. After playing only eight minutes in the opener, Braun has received 15 and 19 minutes in the last two games. The coaching staff has loved him since the offseason due to his high basketball IQ, athleticism, size, defensive acumen and composure. He’s converted 10-of-11 shots in the last two games, so that’s not going to continue, but he does have the capacity to contribute a little something in every statistical category. I will look to differentiate elsewhere.
Jeff Green ($1,800): Don’t expect much from Green as he likely won’t play 20 minutes or attempt many shots. This is purely a price play, as he is the only player under $2,000 who has some semblance of floor (5 DKFP) with the potential of reaching 10 DKFP.
Max Strus ($6,600): Do you like to live dangerously? Well, then Strus is your guy. In Game 1, he shot 0-for-10. In Game 3, he converted 1-of-7. But he has the ability to get hot and scorch the nets. He’s attempted seven, 10 and 10 shots, so he’s getting the looks. While he hasn’t received 30 minutes in any game, he has played 24, 29 and 21 minutes. What tickles me fancy, though, is that he does grab some rebounds, can get an occasional steal and block, and he’s dished out five and six dimes the last two games. So, he’s not primarily a scorer like Vincent and has more paths to production.
Fades
Jimmy Butler ($12,200): Butler is scary to fade, especially with Miami down 2-1 at home. He can literally carry the Heat on his back and stuff the stat sheet across the board. That said, he’s put up 38, 40 and 36.25 DKFP this series and the Nuggets have done a great job defensively on him. Aaron Gordon ($6,600) has given Butler some difficulty due to his athleticism, length and size. At his price tag, I’d rather go down to Murray and Adebayo, who have both been more productive and at a cheaper cost. The projected ownership looks to be high for Butler, so the risk/reward doesn’t seem favorable.
THE OUTCOME
I have so much respect for the Heat, as they are a mentally strong team and are never an easy out. The Nuggets are just the better team. Game 2 was the punch in the mouth that Denver needed and I don’t see them relenting focus now. Miami will no doubt make adjustments for Game 4 but Denver has been able to adjust to every adjustment so far this series.
Final Score: Nuggets 103, Heat 97
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1.25M Shootaround Special [$250K to 1st] (DEN vs MIA)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.