The DFS NASCAR rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR salaries. The order is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the DFS value of each driver.
1. Kyle Larson ($10,600) — His road-course performances in 2022 were mercurial, but that was par for the course last season. In his first season with Hendrick, Larson was the highest rated road course driver in 2021, and that rating includes a win at Sonoma.
2. William Byron ($9,900) — This has been a breakthrough season for Byron. He might be the best driver in the Cup Series. A road-course win has eluded him thus far in his career, but this might be the weekend that changes. He nearly won the COTA race earlier this season.
3. Tyler Reddick ($10,400) — Meet the new king. Reddick won two road course races last season for RCR. He switched to a 23XI Toyota and won at COTA this season. Sonoma has not been great for Reddick in the past but will that matter?
4. Chase Elliott ($10,300) — He has seven road-course wins. Nine is the record. End of blurb.
5. Kyle Busch ($10,100) — At COTA earlier this season, Busch was the runner-up. Last season, the No. 8 RCR Chevy won at two road courses with Tyler Reddick behind the wheel. Busch and top Crew Chief Randall Burnett have three wins this season — all at completely different race tracks.
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6. Christopher Bell ($8,600) — Sonoma might be his road course weak spot. Traditionally, this race wasn’t on the Xfinity or Truck Series calendar. Bell lacks laps. Last season, JGR struggled at the road courses. Despite those struggles, Bell was still a top-10 road racer and won at The Roval.
7. Ryan Blaney ($8,400) — He only has one road-course win and that came way back in 2018. However, in terms of average road-course finish, Blaney is a top-10 driver.
8. Ross Chastain ($9,700) — Trackhouse Racing is a road course team. Team owner Justin Marks is a road racer. Owners are notorious for syphoning resources toward tracks that are sentimental favorites. Daniel Suarez ($9,500) won at Sonoma in 2022 and Chastain won at COTA. Both are technical tracks.
9. Austin Cindric ($9,100) — What happens when narrative and skill collide? Cindric is on the precipice of becoming an all-time road racer. At the same time, he’s got to be infuriated after having his name dragged through the mud by Austin Dillon ($6,100). Could the extra motivation carry Cindric to Victory Lane?
10. A.J. Allmendinger ($9,300) — This is not a long shot. The Dinger won the Cup Series Indy GP in 2021. Last season, he had the third-highest driver rating at the road courses. Unfortunately, Sonoma was his worst road race.
11. Martin Truex Jr ($8,800) — There was a time where DFS players did not bet against Truex at a road course. Those days are long gone. Truex still has the skill but so do a lot of the young guns.
12. Denny Hamlin ($8,900) — The JGR Toyotas struggled at the road courses in 2022. This season is not off to a great start, but Tyler Reddick did win at COTA in a Toyota. Then again, Reddick could probably win a road race in an actual Toyota Corolla. Even the used one your Uncle drives.
13. Michael McDowell ($7,400) — For years, McDowell was a very good but often overrated road-course driver. That’s not the case anymore. He’s bona fide. Statistically, McDowell was the fourth-best road course driver in 2022.
14. Chris Buescher ($7,900) — He’s not flashy but he’s steady. Buescher has never won a Cup Series road event, but he has won at a road course in the Xfinity Series. In the Cup Series, he earned five top-10 finishes in the six road events in 2022 (runner-up at Sonoma).
15. Alex Bowman ($8,000) — This might come as a surprise, but Bowman has been one of the best road course drivers since 2021. Bowman has the fourth-best Dietrich Data score (a statistic that comprehensively synthesizes every lap) in those 14 road course races.
16. Aric Almirola ($6,500) — This is a little contrarian. Almirola is not a great road racer, but he’s running double-duty this weekend. He could benefit from the extra laps. Sonoma has been one of his better road courses. He’s finished eighth, ninth and 14th in three of the last four in wine country.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.