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I hope you enjoy good pitching, because tonight’s 12-game MLB featured slate is packed to the brim with aces. Clayton Kershaw ($11,000), Justin Verlander ($10,500) and Luis Castillo ($10,000) are all on the bump, but don’t forget about ERA leaders Justin Steele ($9,500) and Alex Cobb ($8,700), either. Runs might be at a premium this evening.
With that in mind, let’s break everything down position-by-position.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $222K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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PITCHER
Stud
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs, $9,600 - After an impressive postseason performance last year, Javier got off to a somewhat shaky start to 2023. Allow me to inform you that the RHP is very much back on track. In Javier’s last four outings — all against good competition — the 26-year-old has pitched to a 2.78 FIP with a 36.8% strikeout rate. That includes a season-high 11 strikeouts in his most recent appearance versus the Angels. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ lineup has been underwhelming in May, with a 26.2% strikeout rate being the biggest issue. In fact, that’s the league’s second-highest strikeout rate within that span of time. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the path to a huge Javier game tonight.
Value
Jordan Montgomery, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers, $7,400 - It’s a low-bar, and Montgomery literally surrendered six runs in his last outing, but the lefty has been the Cardinals’ best starter in 2023. Across 46.0 innings, Montgomery possesses respectable marks in xERA (3.90) and FIP (3.50), while he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven games. Still, the main aspect of Montgomery’s viability on Tuesday is his matchup. The Brewers simply can not hit southpaws. Milwaukee comes into this tilt sitting dead-last in baseball in both wOBA (.275) and wRC+ (70) within the split. The Brewers also own a massive 31.0% strikeout rate when opposed by a left-hander. Woof.
INFIELD
Stud
Jonah Heim, Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves, $4,500 - There should be plenty of runs for both teams in this matchup, but let’s take a moment to focus on Heim. The switch-hitting backstop has been particularly dangerous as a right-handed bat in 2023, posting a .493 wOBA and a 221 wRC+ in his 33 plate appearances within the split. Jared Shuster ($5,500), called up from Triple-A to make a spot start due to injury, has struggled in his two prior MLB opportunities this season, giving up four earned runs in each game. Josh Jung ($4,700) is another Texas asset to keep an eye on.
Stud
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics, $4,100 - I guess if A’s fans are looking for a silver lining with Kyle Muller ($5,000), they can cling to the fact he’s pitched far better at home than on the road. However, for the season as a whole, the lefty still owns ghastly marks in xERA (7.75) and walk rate (11.4%). That makes the every Arizona player with a bat an intriguing DFS option on Tuesday, but none more than Walker. In 51 plate appearances against LHPs in 2023, Walker is sporting a .409 ISO and a 176 wRC+.
Value
Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers, $3,900 - Look, I don’t want to make a habit of picking on the aforementioned Kershaw, but how often are you getting Correa into a lineup against a lefty for less than $4K? In 2023, the answer is never. This is by far the lowest salary the All-Star has had this season. While it’s somewhat understandable given that Correa is barely hitting above the Mendoza Line, the veteran has continued to hit southpaws well, registering a .280 ISO and a 131 wRC+ within the split. This is just a classic buying window.
Value
Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds, $3,100 - I don’t need to tell you that tonight’s game between the Rockies and the Reds is taking place at Coors Field. That means a huge implied total and a lot of DFS attention. However, one guy that might sneak under the radar is Tovar. The rookie has been hitting better across his last 20 contests, with a .250 average and a .181 ISO. Tovar also hit second in the Rockies’ lineup last week against an LHP, which is relevant with Brandon Williamson ($5,700) making his MLB debut in the altitude. Michael Toglia ($2,900), recalled on Monday, is another cheap young bat to watch.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Juan Soto, San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals, $5,700 - Soto has been on fire since May 1, slashing .354/.475/.667 with a 208 wRC+ in that stretch of time. I’d anticipate the good times continuing to roll for the 24-year-old in a matchup with Brady Singer ($6,100) on Tuesday. Singer has been embarrassed by left-handed opponents in 2023, surrendering an eye-popping .408 wOBA within the split. Singer’s 8.59 road ERA isn’t great, either.
Stud
Jarred Kelenic, Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox, $4,700 - Kelenic has slowed down slightly in May, though he did manage a pair of hits and three runs scored in Monday’s 10-1 drubbing of the Red Sox. That success should carry over to a second night, as the struggling Nick Pivetta ($6,600) is set to take the mound for Boston. Pivetta has been highly susceptible to the long ball in 2023, allowing opposing left-handed hitters to average 2.93 home runs per nine. Yikes.
Value
Lourdes Gurriel, Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics, $3,900 - Gurriel was a throw-in piece in this winter’s Varsho-Moreno blockbuster, yet the veteran outfielder has been putting up the most impressive numbers of the bunch to this point in 2023. The 29-year-old is hitting .405 with a 273 wRC+ in May, and versus specifically left-handed opponents, Gurriel owns a .373 average in his 55 plate appearances within the split this season. To say he’s underpriced on this slate would be a massive understatment.
Value
Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $3,400 - Don’t sleep on the Athletics tonight. Oakland has hit LHPs well so far in 2023, and Tommy Henry ($5,700) isn’t exactly setting the world ablaze with a putrid 9.7% strikeout rate and 1.00 K/BB ratio. In particular, it’s Ruiz who stands out as a value. The rookie isn’t just batting leadoff for the A’s, he’s hitting .319 with a 146 wRC+ versus lefties. Ruiz also leads baseball with 19 steals. That helps.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $222K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.