The PGA TOUR heads to North Carolina this week for the Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow Club will be the host course this week and is a monster of a par 71, measuring at 7,521 yards. We will be back on Bermuda grass greens this week as well.
This is an elevated event so the field is extremely strong, although both the world No. 1 Jon Rahm and world No. 2 Scottie Scheffler will not be in attendance. Rory McIlroy is back, however, and will be making his first start since the Masters.
Rory McIlroy ($11,100)
We are going all the way to the top for McIlroy this week, who we have not seen since his ugly missed cut at Augusta. On the year, he’s not been at his best despite winning both at the CJ CUP and once over in Europe. The issue this week is that DraftKings did a really efficient job pricing everyone, so we’re not getting much of a discount if we drop to Xander Schauffele ($10,700) or Patrick Cantlay ($10,500).
McIlroy is also the quintessential course fit here, ranking No. 1 on the PGA TOUR in driving distance. The Northern Irishman also ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Ball-Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 24 rounds. We’ve also somehow gotten this far without mentioning his course history at Quail Hollow. McIlroy is a two-time winner at this course (2021, 2015) and has five additional top-10 finishes here since 2013.
With no Rahm or Scheffler in the field this week, McIlroy should be considered the unquestioned favorite to win this event, and there are more than enough value plays to lock him in on DraftKings.
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,000)
Fleetwood just keeps rolling along and has done so relatively under the radar thus far in 2023. On the season he’s made six of his seven cuts on the PGA TOUR, as well as two others on the DP World Tour. The Englishman has a pair of top-four finishes on the year as well at the CJ CUP and most recently with his T3 at Valspar.
Over his past 24 rounds in this field, Fleetwood ranks eighth in this field in SG: Total, 24th in SG: Ball-Striking, 10th from tee-to-green and 37th in putting. He’s been a beacon of consistency lately, and is in the midst of his best stretch of golf on the season, with three top-27 finishes across his past four starts.
In his two trips to Quail Hollow, he’s missed a cut and finished T14, so he’s got some familiarity with the course. This $8,000 price tag seems like a pretty solid value on Fleetwood considering some of the guys he’s priced around, and he fits any type of build.
Keith Mitchell ($7,800)
Mitchell was really bad in his last start at the RBC Heritage, but I am willing to forgive him for one poor outing as he’s been pretty consistent for most of the season. The name of the game this week will be driving distance, and Mitchell is about as long as they come off-the-tee, ranking 15th on the PGA TOUR this season.
This tournament has been played on a few different courses over the years, but when it’s been at Quail Hollow, Mitchell has dominated, finishing T3 in 2021, T8 in 2019 and T34 in 2018. It’s no surprise considering both his length and prowess on Bermuda greens. Even in an elevated event, this $7,800 price tag feels a bit low for Mitchell in this spot.
Dating back 24 rounds, Killa Keith ranks 22nd in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Ball: Striking, and I fully expect him to bounce back this week at a course he’s shown quite an affinity for.
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