You know, for as odd as the start to this MLB season has been with the new rules, it’s sort of gone under the radar how lucky we’ve been with weather. There hasn’t been a single PPD across four days. Heck, I can even remember hearing about a delay — let alone having to watch guys play in a blizzard like in years past.
That good fortune will carry over into tonight’s 11-game featured slate. Which basically just means I have no excuses when it comes to recommending the following assets. Let’s dive in.
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PITCHER
Stud
Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies, $10,200 - It’s hard to go wrong with any of the four top options on tonight’s slate, yet I find myself gravitating towards Urias. The southpaw looked solid on Opening Day, tossing six innings and striking out six in a victory over the Diamondbacks. Now, Urias will draw a Rockies squad that’s managed to post an eye-popping 28.5% strikeout rate through their first five games of 2023 — the third-highest mark in all of baseball. I’d also expect Urias to at least flirt with 90 pitches this evening, after throwing just 79 against Arizona.
Value
Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, $6,700 - Toronto’s starting pitching has been underwhelming to begin the season, but on a slate with so much uncertainty below $7K, Kikuchi at least brings some real upside. The veteran looked very sharp throughout Spring Training, registering a 0.87 ERA over 20.2 innings of work. Kikuchi also led all pitchers with 31 strikeouts in baseball’s tune-up period. Could that mean absolutely nothing going forward? Of course. However, for all his faults in 2022, Kikuchi still managed an intriguing 11.1 K/9 in his 32 appearances. Strikeouts were not the issue. At this price, in a soft matchup, I’m willing to take a chance on the 31-year-old.
INFIELD
Stud
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves, $4,900 - The Cardinals are one of a handful of teams projected for over five runs on this slate — and for good reason. Thanks to an Opening Day injury to Max Fried (hamstring), Dylan Dodd ($5,300) will make his MLB debut on Tuesday, despite the LHP having thrown just 6.2 career innings above Double-A. Things could get ugly, as St. Louis led baseball in both wOBA (.350) and wRC+ (131) against lefties in 2022. Arenado was a massive part of that success, posting a .366 ISO and a 160 wRC+ within the split.
Stud
Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, $4,900 - While the Blue Jays have started slowly in 2023, none of the blame can be placed on Bichette. The All-Star is slashing .421/.450/.632 with a 193 wRC+ over his first 20 plate appearances of the season, picking up right where he left off in 2022, when Bichette hit .337 with a 163 wRC+ in the year’s second-half. Bichette also boasts a career .906 OPS in 381 PAs against left-handed pitching, so Kris Bubic ($6,500) might be wise to tread carefully with the shortstop.
Value
DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies, $3,900 - In general, if LeMahieu is going to consistently bat leadoff for the Yankees, he’s a steal if priced below $4K. The 34-year-old looks healthy after an injury-plagued campaign in 2022, and he’s already collected a pair of extra-base hits in his first 13 at-bats. LeMahieu is also a career .314 hitter against LHPs with an .827 OPS. That’s bad news for Matt Strahm ($5,500), who will be making his first real start since 2019.
Value
Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals, $3,400 - While one could obviously make the case that Chad Kuhl ($5,900) struggled last season due to Coors Field, the numbers don’t really back that statement up. In fact, Kuhl surrendered a ghastly 1.86 home runs per nine on the road in 2022, all while serving up an opponent wOBA of .390 within the split. For his whole career, Kuhl’s also managed to concede a .363 wOBA to opposing LHBs. So, you know, it wasn’t just a Rockies thing. Lowe’s left-handed. Lowe’s too cheap now that he’s healthy, too.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers, $5,800 - Despite missing a majority of Spring Training with an ailment, Alvarez has been as dominant as usual to start 2023. In 19 plate appearances, the slugger is hitting .353 with a .412 ISO, a pair of home runs and nine RBI. Not bad for a four-game sample, right? Still, if you need a larger amount of evidence, Alvarez owns a 166 wRC+ against RHPs for his career. He’s an elite offensive talent. Meanwhile, Matt Manning ($6,300) has some career numbers that are a little more bleak. The right-hander sports a 5.97 ERA when pitching away from the spacious confines of Comerica Field.
Stud
Joey Meneses, Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $4,600 - Meneses has not yet been able to carry over his success at the WBC into the regular season, but tonight might be the night he breaks out of his slump. The left-handed Josh Fleming ($6,100) is toeing the rubber for the Rays — the team’s least threatening starter — and Meneses absolutely crushed southpaws in 2022. In 76 plate appearances within the split at the MLB level, the 30-year-old slashed .366/.408/.676 with a 201 wRC+.
Value
Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, $3,600 - The Jays own this slate’s highest implied total. People will be stacking them on Tuesday. That means you have to differentiate somewhere, and I think Varsho is the route to go. While the LHB struggled hitting left-on-left in 2022, Bubic was equally awful within the split, allowing left-handed opponents to hit .372 with a .611 slugging percentage. Considering Varsho remained in the clean-up spot the first time Toronto faced a southpaw this past weekend, he should be there again this evening. If so, he’s viable.
Value
Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves, $2,400 - It’s hard to imagine a better start to a career than Walker’s had. The 20-year-old is hitting .313 with a .367 expected wOBA in his first four games, while Walker’s struck out only once. Basically, he’s making contact and that contact has tended to be good. The lone knock on Walker is his placement in the bottom of the Cardinals’ lineup, though that might change on Tuesday. Dodd will be the first left-handed starter St. Louis has seen in 2023. Is there a chance the right-handed Walker could move up into the two-spot?
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.