Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for Suns vs. Nuggets Showdown on April 29

Round one of the NBA Playoffs is not completely in the books, but round two begins on Saturday when the Suns travel to the unfriendly, mile-high environment in Denver. Unlike during the regular season, the visiting team has been given several days to acclimate to the thin air. This is an even-matched affair and round two should kickoff with a bang.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Shootaround [100K to 1st] (PHX vs DEN)

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Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets

Captain’s Picks

Nikola Jokic ($18,600 CP): The series with the Timberwolves started off slowly for Jokic, but there are several explanations for his lack of output. His fantasy totals were fine, but they weren’t the monster games DFS players expect from the MVP candidate. Jokic may not have been 100% healthy to open the playoffs and the team did not need him to run at full steam to beat a gassed team that barely got into the playoffs. As the series progressed and it came time to seal the deal, Jokic became the player we all expected. After respectable scores of 42.5, 50.75 and 57.25 DKFP in the first three games of the first round, Jokic exploded for 71.75 and 80.25 DKFP to close the series in five games. The Suns are coming in hot. Jokic cannot ease into this series. He must bring his A-game in game one and pick up where he left off in game five.

Devin Booker ($16,500 CP): Russell Westbrook embarrassed Booker at the end of game one in the Clippers series. That stung. Booker responded. The Suns won the next four games with Booker leading the way. He played over 40 minutes in each of those games and scored 38, 45, 30 and 47 points. His lowest fantasy output was 55.25 DKFP and his best was 78 DKFP in the close-out game. Like Jokic, he comes in hot and needs to stay hot. The Suns choked in the NBA finals in 2021. They were no-shows in the 2022 playoffs. Game one is an opportunity for Booker to erase the past and stake a claim as championship favorites.

UTIL Plays

Kevin Durant ($10,600): Did Kevin Durant explode during round one vs. the Clippers? No. Did he play fairly well and roll the Clippers? Yes. This isn’t the regular season. Every game matters and the players treat each game as such. Teams create game plans and design defensive matchups, unlike the regular season where teams face different teams each night. This isn’t pickup basketball. Upside is limited in the playoffs. Players will go off from time to time, but a player’s fantasy floor is a better barometer in April and May. In round one, Durant scored between 43.5 and 63.25 DKFP. Heading into the playoffs, Durant faced the Nuggets twice. He scored 46.75 DKFP on April 6 and 43.5 DKFP on March 31. There is some upside with Durant, but he has a very safe floor.

Michael Porter Jr. ($6,800): Jamal Murray ($9,400) had some big games in the Minnesota series. Jokic had some monster games, too. However, they did not explode in every single game. On the nights where Jokic was just good or Murray was just good, Porter Jr. filled the void. Porter Jr. scored 40.25 DKFP in game one of the series and 45.25 DKFP in game three. Murray and Jokic are much more likely to have big nights, but Porter Jr. comes at a discounted rate.

Bismack Biyombo ($4,000): With the heavy hitters on this slate, some risky value will be necessary. Biyombo is a classic example of risky value. It’s a coin toss between Biyombo and C Jock Landale ($1,000). In round one, Landale only played in two games, but he started in one and scored 28 DKFP in 21 minutes in the Clippers game one loss. Biyombo barely played in game one. In games, two through five he received more run but not much — 13 MPG. That’s not a lot but they are involved minutes with the second unit vs. a second unit. He will be in the same situation on Saturday. Two times in round one, he was able to squeeze out valuable fantasy performances with 20.75 DKFP in game two and 26.5 DKFP in game five. SF Josh Okogie ($5,400) has a larger role in terms of minutes but his workload is less secure due to who he shares the court with.

Fades

Chris Paul ($8,200): He was fantastic vs. the Clippers. Paul scored a high of 51 DKFP in game four and his low was 36 DKFP. Those performances are great given his salary. That being said, the matchup was not that difficult. The Clippers were a fairly weak playoff team and the Suns are a very difficult team to matchup against. Paul will continue to benefit from Durant and Booker receiving most of the defense’s attention, but the Nuggets are a better team regardless of what their regular season stats suggest. After round one, the Nuggets rank fifth in defensive rating and the Clippers rank dead last. Paul will play a pivotal role and likely play well on Saturday. However, the probability that he explodes is low and it’s a certainty that rostering him makes it much more difficult to roster players with a greater probability of going off.

THE OUTCOME

Both teams looked very good in round one. Both teams faced inferior opponents. Each took care of business and only needed five games to end their opponent’s season. There doesn’t seem to be much of an edge either way. The Suns have famous fire power but the Nuggets have their own superstars — they’re just not household names, yet. This team finished first in the stacked Western Conference. They walked through round one. This could be the beginning of a Denver Dynasty.

Final Score: Nuggets 118, Suns 112

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Shootaround [100K to 1st] (PHX vs DEN)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.