The DFS NASCAR rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR salaries. The order is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the DFS value of each driver.
The DraftKings NASCAR Cup Series Würth 400 at Dover slate locks at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
1. Chase Elliott ($10,800) — Does Elliott have a Union card? No one is better on concrete. Elliott likely poured the stuff. In 12 Dover races, he has nine top-5 finishes and two wins (2022 and 2018). At the other concrete tracks last season, he won at Nashville and was the runner-up at Bristol.
2. Kyle Larson ($11,500) — If Kyle Larson’s Chip Ganassi Racing stats are strong at a specific track, then he’s a favorite at that track with a Hendrick Motorsports car. He won with CGR at Dover in 2019 and should have won in 2021 with HMS (236 laps led and a runner-up finish).
3. William Byron ($11,200) — The short-track package has heavily favored Hendrick Motorsports. The same can be said of the intermediate-track package. Larson was the fastest at Las Vegas, but Byron was the second quickest and got the win.
4. Christopher Bell ($10,300) — The young JGR driver is a short-track expert and dirt-racing superstar. He’s not bad at intermediate tracks either. Bell does not have an intermediate track win in the Cup Series but he was close last season. Dover was one of those close calls (fourth).
5. Denny Hamlin ($10,500) — His 0.77 Dietrich Data Score (a comprehensive stat that analyzes each lap of each race) is the best in the NASCAR Cup Series this season. That number is weighed down by a 0.22 score in the Bristol dirt race. He scored a 0.91 at Fontana (Auto Club) and Las Vegas.
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6. Ross Chastain ($9,800) — At Auto Club (Fontana), Chastain had the highest driver rating. He had a top-5 car at Las Vegas. Dover will be the third race this season in the same package used at those tracks. Chastain finished third in this package at Dover last season.
7. Kevin Harvick ($9,300) — He had a top-10 driver rating in both races in this package earlier this season. It’s possible that SHR has closed the gap with Hendrick. It’s also possible that the Hendrick engineers have widened the gap.
8. Martin Truex Jr ($10,000) — The JGR Toyotas are not too far behind the HMS Chevys. Truex had the fourth-highest driver rating at Las Vegas. With Truex, it’s never a question of quickness. It’s always about luck and mistakes with Truex.
9. Kyle Busch ($9,600) — Once upon a time, there was an unbreakable DFS NASCAR rule: Never play Kyle Busch in the spring Dover race. For whatever reason, he was cursed in the first Dover race. There’s only one race now. Has the curse been lifted? Busch comes into this race in good form in terms of luck with a Talladega win last Sunday.
10. Ryan Blaney ($8,600) — Dover should be a track that suits Blaney. He tends to run well at high-speed tracks and short tracks. Dover combines those strengths. Yet Blaney has one top-10 finish in the last 10 Dover races.
11. Chris Buescher ($7,700) — His 2022 Bristol win surprised everyone, but it should not have. He won the pole at the similarly high-banked, concrete track at Dover earlier in the season.
12. Brad Keselowski ($8,400) — This is not the old Keselowski, but it’s a decent version. The RFK Fords are slowly improving. He had a top-10 driver rating at Fontana and a top-15 driver rating at Las Vegas.
13. Justin Haley ($5,600) — Once again, this racing package has been on the shelf for quite a while. Kaulig had fast cars in those early season races. Haley got caught in the big restart wreck at Auto Club but grabbed a top-10 finish at Las Vegas. He finished 11th at Dover last season.
14. Josh Berry ($7,500) — So far this season, the No. 48 Hendrick Chevy has been the HMS weak link. It’s not an indictment of Bowman or the car. It’s praise for the greatness of Larson and Byron. The No. 48 team won the 2021 Dover race with a top-5 car. They can steal another with the driver that won the 2022 Xfinity Series race at Dover
15. Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,300) — The plate tracks are his strength. His next best skill is racing at the concrete tracks. Stenhouse has a handful of strong runs at Bristol (four top 5s), a sixth-place finish at Nashville in 2021 and a runner-up finish in last season’s Dover race.
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