The number of games for today’s script is six. The nightcap even includes the New York Knicks! No doubt that game is going to get tons of clicks, even from those who will likely see the day officially flip. Hopefully, we make good picks and stay away from those players who chuck up tons of bricks. At least the player pool isn’t as robust as spending a night scrolling through Netflix, so we should be able to navigate through the mix and construct a viable lineup, one that clicks, with the eventual goal of being the last one standing like one John Wick.
BKN is the only team playing the first game of a back-to-back. No teams played on Wednesday. Jalen Brunson ($8,400), Jordan Clarkson ($7,700) and Walker Kessler ($6,900) are the notable players who are questionable. Keep abreast of all the injury news @dklive.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the NYK/SAC game with the highest total at 239.5. The CHA/DET game has the lowest total at 225. The Bucks are the biggest favorites by 12 points over the Nets while the NYK/SAC has the tightest spread at 2.5 points, in favor of the Kings. DET and MEM are home dogs.
Jalen Green, Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers ($6,400) – Green is one of the most athletic players in the league. Some say that his vertical jump is over 50 inches. I often wonder if he got bit by a radioactive flea when he was younger. Anyways, he has a variety of ways to get buckets and can score in bunches, albeit inefficiently. And herein lies the problem with Green; he doesn’t contribute much in the periphery categories so he needs to light up the scoreboard with points. Well, that may not be an issue tonight as the Pacers have been the worst defensive team over the last 10 games and Kevin Porter Jr. is out. With KPJ off the court this season, Green has seen a 3.8% usage rate bump to 32.8%.
Last season, when it became silly season and teams didn’t care, Green put up at least 40 DKFP in seven of the last eight games of the season with a high of 50.75. A 50-burger is well within the range of outcomes tonight. Just know that it’s also possible that the efficiency could have even Stevie Wonder believing in his shooting ability.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies ($6,700) – Since returning from injury, Curry has played 32 and 36 minutes while putting up 42 and 60 DKFP. There’s not much to say here as Curry averages 1.47 DKFP per minute and has garnered a usage rate in the 34% range since coming back. On the season, Memphis has allowed 36 treys per game, the 8th-most in the league, while allowing the 9th-most makes at 12.8 per game.
Other Options - Tyrese Haliburton ($9,800), Mikal Bridges ($8,500)
Seth Curry, Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks ($3,500) – The Nets are sitting a plethora of players tonight so there will be tons of minutes and usage up for grabs. I was initially going to go with Cam Thomas ($4,700) here since he has obvious upside and averages 0.95 DKFP per minute. He should get at least 20 minutes tonight, but he’s a player who needs the offense centered around him. When he had that three-game stretch back in February with over 55 DKFP in each, Thomas was THE guy. Now, Bridges is the alpha and will be playing tonight. In addition, the price for Thomas isn’t palatable. So, Curry, it is. He only averages 0.79 DKFP but he should get close to 30 minutes in this one. Curry is a knock-down shooter, converting 39% of his attempts from downtown and should complement Bridges well on the court. Curry does have some upside as he’s gone for over 30 DKFP six times this season.
Other Options - Dennis Smith Jr. ($4,700), Malik Monk ($4,400), Daishen Nix ($3,000), Joe Harris ($3,400), Edmond Sumner ($3,600)
Julius Randle, New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings ($10,000) – For a long stretch, Randle was one of the most consistent fantasy players in the land, as you could pencil him in for 40-50 DKFP a night. Over the last five games, though, he’s gone for fewer than 40 DKFP twice. Oh, the humanity! I think he returns to his King of New York ways and maybe puts up a ceiling game in this one. He’s gone for at least 60 DKFP eight times this season with a high of 71.75. This game has the highest total on the slate, the Kings have played at the 10th-fastest pace over the last 10 games, they have been 29th in defensive rating and, on the season, they have boosted the FPPM to power forwards by 5.91% above league average.
Kelly Oubre Jr., Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons ($7,500) – When Oubre returned seven games ago from a lengthy absence, he was only playing around 23 minutes a game. He’s ramped up now, as he’s played 38, 41, 36 and 36 minutes over the four most recent contests. With LaMelo Ball out, Rozier has slid up to point guard while Oubre has been playing shooting guard. The usage rate has been in the 26% range with one game at 30%. That’s translated to 39.25, 27.25, 50.5 and 41.75 DKFP.
Trey Lyles, Sacramento Kings vs. New York Knicks ($3,700) – Lyles doesn’t start but he’s been a significant member of the rotation off the bench. He’s exceeded points expectations 80% of the time this season and, over the last five games, he’s put up 26.25, 30, 24, 16.75 and 31 DKFP. The floor is decent, as Lyles averages 0.96 DKFP and this game should have plenty of possessions. The playing time can fluctuate, though, from 13 to 21 minutes. That’s the concern, but there is 10x upside for sure.
Other Options - Xavier Tillman ($5,900), Tari Eason ($5,600), Isaiah Livers ($4,600), Yuta Watanabe ($3,000)
Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings vs. New York Knicks ($9,900) – This game has the highest total on the slate, yadda yadda. Sabonis doesn’t garner an exorbitant usage rate, as it’s usually in the mid-20s and rarely gets above 30%, but it doesn’t matter because he does excellent work on the boards and is an adept passer. Sabonis leads the league in double-doubles and has eight triple-doubles on the season. He’s gone for at least 50 DKFP in each of the last four games.
Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors ($8,600) – Jackson is coming into his own and is on the precipice of being a superstar. Fouls can still be an issue but his ability to dominate at both ends of the floor is becoming more evident by the day. With Ja Morant out, he has really elevated his game due to the increase in usage, which has been 27.1% and 29.9%. That translated to 43 and 41.25 DKFP. On the season with Morant out, Jackson has seen a usage rate bump of 5.7% to a team-leading 29.2%.
Other Options - Mark Williams ($6,000)
Day’Ron Sharpe, Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks ($3,000) – Nic Claxton is out tonight so the center minutes will be split between Sharpe and Nerlens Noel ($3,300). Sharpe was a DNP last game while Noel played 17 minutes. Noel could get the start and, if so, the ownership will likely flock toward him. I still think Sharpe will get at least 20 minutes of run in this one. He averages 0.99 DKFP per minute and went for 40.5 DKFP in 33 minutes back in December as a starter then put up 35.5 DKFP in 21 minutes off the bench in January. He’s the minimum and the ownership should be lower than Noel’s.
Other Options - Moritz Wagner ($5,500), James Wiseman ($5,700), Mitchell Robinson ($5,600), Kevon Looney ($5,000)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.