The PGA TOUR remains in Texas for one more week as TPC San Antonio hosts the Valero Texas Open. The course is a 7,438-yard par 72 and features Bermuda grass greens. With one week to go before The Masters, the field for this event is not as strong as we are used to. Tyrrell Hatton and Hideki Matsuyama will headline, with Rickie Fowler, Corey Conners and defending champion J.J. Spaun all in attendance as well.
Corey Conners ($10,100)
Conners can sometimes be hard to stomach due to his putting woes, but he rates out as the best ball striker in this field by a pretty decent margin. He ranks No. 2 in SG: Approach and No. 3 in SG: Off-the-Tee over his past 48 rounds. The problem, of course, is that he sits 113th in SG: Putting over the same time frame.
Thankfully, TPC San Antonio features Bermuda grass greens, where Conners is .24 strokes better per round compared to other surfaces.
After opening the 2022-23 season strong, posting four top-25 finishes over his first six full-field event starts, Conners has hit a bit of a wall. He posted back-to-back poor showings at the Genesis and WMPO, before a missed cut at THE PLAYERS in his last start. If there was ever going to be a place where he would turn it around, however, it would be TPC San Antonio. Conners has yet to miss a cut here in four starts while posting a win in 2019 and a T14 in 2021.
It obviously feels weird paying $10,100 for Conners on DraftKings, but when you take into account the strength of the field, his course history and rolling stats, he’s an obvious spend up option this week.
Ben Griffin ($8,700)
Griffin has quietly been playing some really strong golf this season. He’s now made 13 of his past 14 cuts dating all the way back to the Sanderson Farms Championship in September. In that stretch, he’s posted six top-25 finishes, including a T3 in Bermuda and a T14 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
It will come as no surprise to learn that Griffin ranks fifth in this field in SG: Total and 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 36 rounds. He’s never played this event before, but there have been plenty of golfers who have played well on debut at TPC San Antonio. The fact we can almost pencil Griffin in for a made cut makes his $8,700 salary pretty appealing this week and makes him one of the best plays in this range.
Ben Martin ($7,100)
Martin keeps rolling along after a T8 finish last week at the Corales Puntacana Championship. That came on the heels of a T5 at the Honda Classic and T13 at Pebble Beach. Martin has also made five consecutive cuts and seven of his past nine, which is insanely strong for someone who costs just $7,100.
Over this stretch Martin ranks sixth in the field in SG: Ball-Striking, 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green and fifth in SG: Total. His history at TPC San Antonio is also quite good, having made three of four cuts, including each of his past three.
This is a clear pricing error because three of the four golfers who have gained more total strokes than Martin over the past 12 rounds are Tyrrell Hatton, Rickie Fowler and Chris Kirk. Kirk is priced at $9,300, while Hatton and Fowler are over $10,000.
Martin is an elite value play in this spot.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is Lan1228) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.