We have exactly 21 days left in the NBA regular season, and there is still plenty left to be decided. The top spot in the Eastern Conference is still up for grabs, while the middle of the Western Conference remains as chaotic as ever. The fourth-place Suns and 12th-place Pelicans are separated by just 4.0 games, so we could be in store for a wild finish.
We have another six games to choose from on Monday, and the main slate gets underway on DraftKings at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite plays at each position.
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Guard
Studs
Terry Rozier, Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers ($7,900) – The Hornets and Pacers will square off in what should be a very fantasy-friendly matchup on Monday. Both of these teams rank in the top eight in pace this season, and both teams are in the bottom 11 in terms of defensive efficiency. The Hornets will also be without LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams, and Cody Martin, so the remaining players all stand out as appealing options.
Rozier should be one of their top contributors. He’s coming off a poor showing in his last outing, racking up just 29.0 DKFP in a 39-point loss to the 76ers, but he had scored at least 39.25 DKFP in his five previous games. In general, Rozier has seen a +2.0% usage bump in 28 games without Melo this season – the second-highest mark on the team – and he’s responded with an average of 38.57 DKFP per game.
Rozier’s price tag crept above $8,000 last week, but he’s back down to $7,900 for an outstanding matchup. That makes him an excellent buy-low candidate.
Desmond Bane, Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks ($7,800) – The Grizzlies are still playing without Ja Morant, so Bane should continue to serve as the team’s top scorer. He could take on an even larger role Monday vs. the Mavericks with Jaren Jackson Jr.’s status currently up in the air. He’s questionable with a calf injury, and Bane has increased his usage rate by +2.8% and his assist rate by +8.1% with Morant and Jackson off the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.20 DKFP per minute in that scenario, and he should be locked in for mid-30s minutes against the Mavs.
Bane has faced the Mavericks twice recently, and he’s had outstanding results in both contests. He racked up 45.25 DKFP across 34.7 minutes on Mar. 11, and he followed that up with 43.5 DKFP over 29.2 minutes last Monday. He was priced at around $8,500 for both contests, so he’s a strong option at just $7,800 on this slate.
Other Options – Steph Curry ($9,800), De’Aaron Fox ($8,200)
Value
Dennis Smith Jr., Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers ($5,000) – Smith has always been an excellent fantasy producer when given the opportunity, but minutes have been hard for him to come by in recent years. However, he’s gotten the chance to play extended minutes with LaMelo sidelined of late, and Smith has racked up 0.97 DKFP per minute over the past month. He could easily exceed that figure vs. the Pacers, and Smith has returned positive value in five straight games. He’s had at least 30.0 DKFP in two of his past three contests, and he’s played at least 31.7 minutes in all three games. Those are all good signs for his prospects in this matchup.
Other Options – Kevin Huerter ($4,800; questionable), Ochai Agbaji ($3,800)
Forward
Studs
Julius Randle, New York Knicks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ($9,200) – The forward position is a bit light on studs on Monday, especially with Jackson and Lauri Markkanen both listed as questionable. Randle is the most expensive option, and he has been a reliable producer for most of the year. However, his numbers have taken a bit of a hit recently, and Randle has failed to return value in five of his past six games.
That’s caused his price tag to dip to just $9,200 vs. the Timberwolves, making him an interesting buy-low option. The Timberwolves represent a massive pace-up spot for the Knicks, who have played at the third-slowest pace this season. Minnesota has also listed both Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid as questionable, so they could be pretty thin on the interior.
Randle has also proven that $9,200 is simply too cheap of a price tag for him. He’s been priced below $9,500 in 30 previous contests this season, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of +2.93 DKFP.
Kelly Oubre Jr., Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers ($6,900) – Oubre is living his best life right now. He loves to shoot the basketball, and with Ball out of the picture, the coast is clear for Oubre to fire at will. He’s launched at least 15 shots in seven of his past eight games, and he’s averaged 17.5 shots and 7.3 3-point attempts over that stretch.
Oubre doesn’t provide much in the other categories, so he has a wide range of outcomes on most nights. That said, he has plenty of upside when his shot is falling. He’s scored at least 36.75 DKFP in six of his past eight contests, including a game with 50.5. That gives him a decent floor and solid upside at his current price tag.
Other Options – Jimmy Butler ($8,700), Al Horford ($5,600)
Value
Taurean Prince, Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks ($3,400) – Anthony Edwards suffered an ankle injury on Friday, and head coach Chris Finch said he didn’t know how long he would be sidelined. Edwards is officially questionable for this matchup, but it seems unlikely he’ll suit up, given the severity of the injury.
Prince moved into the starting lineup in the Timberwolves last game, and he played exactly 30 minutes. He wasn’t particularly effective with his playing time, finishing with just 8.0 DKFP, but he has the potential for a much better performance vs. the Knicks. He’s averaged 0.71 DKFP per minute for the year, and he should see a comparable workload if Edwards is sidelined again.
Other Options – P.J. Washington ($5,800), Naz Reid ($4,200; questionable)
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers vs. Chicago Bulls ($11,600) – Nikola Jokic opened the door a crack for the MVP award with the Nuggets' recent slide, and Embiid has kicked the door off the hinges. He’s now considered the favorite to take home the hardware, and the 76ers have a chance to get the top seed in the East. Embiid has racked up at least 31 points in nine straight games, even though the 76ers have played in plenty of blowouts. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.76 DKFP per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among Monday’s players by a wide margin.
The Bulls are a decent matchup for centers, but Embiid is absolutely matchup-proof at this point. The bigger question is if the Bulls can keep this game close. The 76ers have won their past two games by at least 20 points, which has kept Embiid’s fantasy numbers in check. They’re currently 8.5-point home favorites vs. the Bulls, and as long as this game doesn’t turn into a blowout, expect Embiid to continue to deliver some of the best production in fantasy.
Other Options – Domantas Sabonis ($10,400), Rudy Gobert ($7,200; questionable)
Value
Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves ($4,500) – Robinson’s price tag has dipped by roughly -$1,000 over the past week, so he’s another solid buy-low target in the Knicks’ frontcourt. His minutes aren’t the most reliable, but he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary. Robinson has averaged 0.94 DKFP per minute for the year, so mid-20s minutes should be enough to return value. Anything more than that is just gravy.
Other Options – Alperen Sengun ($6,700), Nick Richards ($5,100)
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $350K Fadeaway [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.