The PGA TOUR will be hosting one of the most anticipated non-major events of the season this week, the Waste Management Phoenix Open. After three consecutive events that featured multiple courses, the Stadium Course of TPC Scottsdale is the only venue this world-class field will play (par 71, 7,261 yards, POA greens). There will be a standard top-65 and ties cut occurring after the first two rounds. Scottie Scheffler (-16) defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff at last year’s Phoenix Open, which was the first of Scheffler’s four wins for the season.
TPC Scottsdale is a desert track that favors long hitters. Notably, four of the past five champions at this par 71 have collectively ranked inside the top 13 in both SG OTT and driving distance during their wins. While the POA greens at TPC Scottsdale are some of the largest on the PGA TOUR, we still need to be prioritizing players who are in encouraging form with their irons, with three of the past four Phoenix Open winners either leading their field or finishing runner-up in SG APP. Efficiency on the par 4s will also be vital to contending this week. Over the last four years, three of the four golfers to secure the top prize at the Phoenix Open led their fields in SG on the par 4s at TPC Scottsdale. Finally, while not a necessity, targeting players who have been successful putters on POA grass is a wise strategy.
Coming off the underwhelming field at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the Phoenix Open boasts a major like field, with 22 of the top-25 ranked players in the world teeing it up. Arizona State product John Rahm and the world’s No.1 ranked player Rory McIlroy are the current betting favorites to win this weekend on the DraftKings Sportsbook, tied at +800.
This stacked field is filled with appealing value plays and below I break down my four favorite sub $7.5K options on DraftKings for the Phoenix Open.
Keith Mitchell ($7,400) – At a bomber’s paradise like TPC Scottsdale, Mitchell is a must at this low salary. The long hitter ranks second in SG OTT and 11th in driving distance over his last 24 rounds. He has been very successful at the Phoenix Open throughout his career, making three of four cuts, including a T10 last season and a T16 in 2020. On top of his elite driver, Mitchell has been trending in the right direction with his irons, gaining strokes on APP in three of his past four starts. The deadly combination of strong OTT and APP skills has resulted in a pair of top-25 finishes for Mitchell during this run. In this compelling form, the 31-year-old should add another quality finish to his resume at TPC Scottsdale this weekend.
Wyndham Clark ($7,200) – Clark has advanced to the weekend at two of the past three Phoenix Opens and returns to Scottsdale this week riding a six-made cut streak. The 29-year-old impressed during this stretch, recording four top-30 finishes. He has the tools to flourish at TPC Scottsdale. Not only does Clark rank second in driving distance over his last 24 rounds, but his best putting splits come on POA grass. Clark has made eight consecutive cuts at tournaments that feature POA putting surfaces, including five finishes of T35 or better.
Brendan Steele ($7,200) – Steele has produced eight top 30s at TPC Scottsdale in 12 starts at the desert venue. He comes into this week making five straight cuts, while collectively gaining strokes OTT and on APP at four of these events. Most notably, Steele carded a T18 at the CJ Cup and a T20 at the Farmers Insurance Open during this cut streak. At this cheap price tag, the veteran is a terrific combination of current form and course history that can’t be ignored.
Luke List ($6,900) – List is another bomber that is way underpriced for his upside. The 38-year-old is coming off a T25 at the Farmers Insurance Open, in which he led the field in SG OTT. List has now made seven of his past 10 cuts, with three top-30 finishes during this time frame. Furthermore, the Vanderbilt graduate ranks 12th in driving distance and 13th in SG OTT when we compare this field’s last 36 rounds. List has proceeded to the weekend at three of the last four Phoenix Opens — including three top-30 finishes — and is an easy choice at this sub $7K price tag.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.