Eight is pronounced as “ba” in Cantonese, which means wealth. Well, that is how many games we have on tonight’s DraftKings shelf. Let us ponder, dwell and go in-depth into the player pool, then propel ourselves from the bottom of the proverbial well to such heights that it echoes when we yell while the bankroll swells. Good luck tonight. Do not get overwhelmed. Get out there and excel!
ATL, DET, HOU, PHO, POR and WAS are playing the first leg of a back-to-back set. CHA and IND are the teams that played last night.
Joel Embiid ($11,300) and Rudy Gobert ($6,800) are the notable players who are questionable. Keep abreast of all the injury news @dklive.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are two games with a total of at least 240 - CHA/DET (240) and ATL/UTA (242). PHI is the largest favorite at -10 over SA while the CHA/DET game has the tighest spread at 1 point. IND, SA and HOU are home dogs.
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Guard
Studs
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards ($10,600) – Lillard has been one of the best fantasy players when healthy. He’s exceeded points expectations 80% of the time this season and, over the last 11 games, he’s been a top 3 player on a per-game basis. He’s gone for at least 50 DKFP in nine of those contests with six over 60 and a 72 and 89.25 DKFP game mixed in. He has averaged a ridiculous 39.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 7.9 assists while shooting 53% from the field and 40% from downtown.
There are some things to think about, though, as the Wizards have been top 10 in defensive rating over the last 10 games and Lillard’s field goal percentage has been significantly worse on the road than at home. That said, he’s garnering a massive 35% usage rate, is on a heater and in his last two games on the road against two good teams in Denver and Memphis, he shot 50% and 60% from the field.
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons ($9,700) – Over the last four games, Ball has scored 40 DKFP in three of those contests. He did go for 72 DKFP in the other one, though. Ball is a threat to triple-double on any given night and put up 70-burgers. The game environment should be a good one tonight, as both teams have been playing at a top-5 offensive pace over the last 10 games while Detroit has been 26th in defensive rating.
Other Options - Trae Young ($9,400), Tyrese Haliburton ($9,200), Anthony Edwards ($9,900), Fred VanVleet ($8,300), Dejounte Murray ($8,100), Terry Rozier ($8,000), Jaden Ivey ($6,200)
Value
Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers ($4,800) – Monk may be my favorite play on the slate. I just kiboshed myself, didn’t I? Anyways, there are some good and obvious value plays on the slate, especially at guard, and Monk isn’t a screaming value in terms of price. As a result, I’m thinking he goes overlooked somewhat and comes in at lower ownership. We shall see how it plays out.
So, why do I like him so much?
De’Aaron Fox is out and, with Fox off the court this season, Monk has seen a 4.5% usage bump to a team-leading 30.7%! Over the last two games, he’s played 32 and 33 minutes, hoisting up 14 and 13 shots, which translated to 32.5 and 39.25 DKFP, and those games were with Fox.
Other Options - Josh Richardson ($4,800), Mike Conley ($5,700), Alec Burks ($5,100), Malaki Branham ($3,600)
Forward
Studs
Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz vs. Atlanta Hawks ($8,400) – I am not enamored with the higher-priced options, so paying down a bit seems like the best path. Now, early projection numbers have Markkanen as one of the higher-rostered players on the slate, so this must be factored into the calculus, and paying up may be the better path. Such a help I am, huh? It’s all about lineup construction.
This game has the highest total on the slate at 242 and a tight spread of 1.5 points in favor of Utah. Markkanen averages 1.2 DKFP per minute and plays around 35 minutes per night. He’s gone for at least 50 DKFP in four of the last eight games with a high of 61. Atlanta has boosted the FPPM to small forwards by 5.7% above league average.
Kristaps Porzingis, Washington Wizards vs. Portland Trail Blazers ($8,900) – The range of outcomes is wide for Porzingis. If he finishes with 25 DKFP, I wouldn’t be surprised. If he goes for a 60-burger, I’d nod my head up and down in approval. It comes down to health, staying out of foul trouble and hitting his shots because he is able to stuff the stat sheet and be a force at both ends.
This game should be competitive, as the spread is 4 points, and the total is a healthy 236.5. Porzingis actually shoots a little better on the road but he plays more minutes and garners a higher usage rate at home. The ownership should be minuscule and he could be the top DKFP scorer at the position.
Other Options - Anthony Edwards ($9,900), Scottie Barnes ($7,700), Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,600)
Value
Deni Avdija, Washington Wizards vs. Portland Trail Blazers ($5,000) – Since Hachimura was traded to Los Angeles, Avdija has literally been a beast, putting up 39, 33, 31.75 and 41.75 DKFP in 32, 30, 28 and 33 minutes. He’s a low-usage player, as he will rarely be above 20%, but he doesn’t make his living scoring and setting up teammates, although he’s scored double-digits in each of the last four contests. Where Avdija thrives is on the glass and on defense. He’s grabbed 9, 9, 10 and 10 boards while racking up 1, 2, 1 and 3 steals.
Other Options - Keita Bates-Diop ($4,400), Naz Reid ($4,800) if Gobert is out
Center
Studs
Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers ($10,100) – Revenge! Ha, I don’t get caught up in those narratives but it’s fun to write it. Sabonis did play against the Pacers earlier this season, putting up 36.5 DKFP in only 23 minutes as the Kings won by 23 points. Sacramento is only favored by 3 points tonight, as Fox is out, so it should be a competitive affair. Indiana has been playing at the fourth-fastest pace over the last 10 games, and the total is at 235.5, so the environment should be fantasy friendly.
Sabonis averages 1.33 DKFP per minute and will more than likely land in the high-40 to low-50 DKFP range. He has put up over 70 DKFP twice this season, so there is upside.
Mason Plumlee, Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons ($6,700) – His name is Mason and we shall exalt his name, for he has been a savior for many. Plumlee has exceeded points expectations 80% of the time. The playing time was a bit erratic for the first 11 games or so, but since then, he’s been a center of extraordinary magnitude, considering the price of course. He has scored fewer than 30 DKFP in 12 of 42 games while going for at least 40 DKFP 11 times.
This should be an up-and-down affair, as both teams have been top 5 in pace over the last 10 games. Detroit has also boosted the FPPM to centers by 11.59% above league average, so the matchup and environment could put another 40-piece in play for Plumlee.
Other Options - Joel Embiid ($11,300) if he plays, Kristaps Porzingis ($8,900), Myles Turner ($7,500)
Value
Drew Eubanks, Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards ($3,800) – Eubanks will likely get the start for Jusuf Nurkic, who suffered a calf injury. Eubanks averages 0.81 DKFP per minute and put up 33.75 DKFP in 24 minutes last game. In six prior starts this season, he’s gone for 17.25, 22.75, 26.25, 16, 20.5 and 31.5 DKFP.
Other Options - Walker Kessler ($5,800), Jalen Duren ($5,400), Naz Reid ($4,800) if Gobert is out, Daniel Gafford ($4,800)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.