The holy number is seven. If that’s so, then why do we lose when rolling it at the craps table? Can someone break that down by educating me with a lesson? I kid, I kid. Seven is how many games we have tonight. Let us raise our hands and rejoice to the heavens. Pray that we don’t not pick the lemons, which would taint our obsession and make our account feel like we are in a recession. Hopefully, I make an impression and assist in navigating this particular session, successfully like one Magellan, resulting in abhorrent profits like Chevron.
CHA and IND are playing the first leg of a back-to-back set. GS and MEM are the teams that played last night.
LeBron James ($10,700) and Tyrese Haliburton ($8,800) are the notable players who are questionable. The Warriors have not released their injury report, but they played last night and could be sitting key players today. Keep abreast of all the injury news @dklive.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the LAL/IND game has the highest total on the slate at 240. DEN is the biggest favorite at 12 points over GS. The tighest spread is LAL -1.5 over IND. IND and NYK are the only home dogs.
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans ($12,300) – Doncic averages a whopping 1.65 DKFP per minute. The usage rate has been over 40% in two of the last three games and is usually in the high 30 percent to 40 percent range on the regular. He’s a threat to triple-double on any given night and be the highest raw scorer on the slate. Is there a risk? For sure, since he’s the highest-priced player on the slate and he’s exceeded points expectations only 60% of the time this season.
New Orleans has been middle of the pack in both offensive pace and defensive rating over the last 10 games. In the third game of the season, Doncic went for 68.25 DKFP against New Orleans.
Doncic has to put up a monster score to kill you for not rostering him. That said, it’s well within the range of outcomes that he does just that. Projected ownership and available value will be a big factor in determining whether to stroll down the Doncic path or not.
Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls vs. Charlotte Hornets ($8,200) – LaVine will rarely dominate the usage pie like Doncic, as DeRozan and Vucevic both garner a hefty share. In addition, the shooting efficiency can sometimes be an issue, which has resulted in 10 games with fewer than 30 DKFP. That said, LaVine can get scorching hot and has gone for at least 50 DKFP seven times with three of those over 60.
The game environment should be a good one as the Hornets have been top 5 in pace over the last 10 games while being 17th in defensive rating. Against shooting guards, Charlotte has boosted the FPPM by 6.93% above the league average.
In two prior games with Charlotte this season, LaVine has gone for 29 and 35.75 DKFP. The third time’s a charm!
Other Options - Paul George ($9,000), Jamal Murray ($7,700), Terry Rozier ($7,300), Jordan Poole ($6,500)
Ty Jerome, Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets ($3,000) – The Warriors played last night with Curry playing 43 minutes. There’s a good chance that he sits out this second leg of the back-to-back. Jerome only averages 0.76 DKFP per minute but, in two starts this season, he’s put up 10.75 and 40.25 DKFP. That 40.25 game was against a tough Cleveland squad. If Curry plays, then obviously abort this mission and this section of the blurb will self-destruct.
Other Options - Donte DiVincenzo ($5,200), Immanuel Quickley ($5,400)
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks ($9,800) – It took a while for the proper operating system to be downloaded and the guidance chips calibrated, but the Kawhibot 2000 is humming now. Over the last six games, he’s gone for at least 44 DKFP in every contest with three over 50 and a high of 60.5. He’s averaging 37.1 minutes, 30.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals and 0.8 blocks while shooting 59% from the field, 48% from downtown and 91% from the line. And he’s only turning the ball over once per game. Beep boop bop.
The Clippers are 4-point underdogs on the road and the game has a healthy total of 230.5, so we should get a full complement of Kawhi minutes in this one, with a high usage rate.
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat at New York Knicks ($7,400) – This is the lowest price that Butler has been at all season long! Get your discount here! Butler attempted seven shots in each of two games a week ago and has been dealing with a plethora of injuries: back, shoulder and groin. Over the last three games, though, he’s looked right, averaging 33.4 minutes and 26.7 points while shooting 57% from the field. He went for 49.5, 44.75 and 39.25 DKFP.
Butler doesn’t always garner the highest usage rate because he often defers and stays within the confines of the offense. That said, he does step it up when needed and his ability to produce in every statistical category gives him a 60-DKFP upside, something he’s done twice this season.
This game features two of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA, so the game environment isn’t the juiciest, but the Knicks have been 28th in defensive rating with no Mitchell Robinson anchoring down low.
Other Options - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,900), LeBron James ($10,700), DeMar DeRozan ($8,700)
Rui Hachimura, Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana Pacers ($5,100) – Hachimura entered the starting lineup two games ago. In the first one, both LeBron and Davis did not play. In the most recent contest, though, both LeBron and Davis did play and Hachimura, not only started but played a whopping 41 minutes. He attempted 12 shots, pulled down nine rebounds and went for 33.25 DKFP.
The Pacers have been playing at the 5th-fastest pace over the last 10 games while being 27th in defensive rating. In addition, on the season, they have boosted the FPPM to power forwards by a league-leading 21.27% above the league average.
Other Options - Pat Connaughton ($5,200), Patrick Williams ($5,000), Jonathan Kuminga ($3,700)
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors ($11,300) – Jokic averages 1.68 DKFP per minute and has one of the highest floor/ceiling combos on the slate. He’s a threat to triple-double on any given night. That said, there’s concern about a blowout here, as the Warriors are playing the second leg of a back-to-back and the Nuggets are currently favored by double digits. Don’t forget that the Warriors B team went into Cleveland and beat them not too long ago. In addition, Jokic played 28 minutes in a 29-point beatdown of the Suns last month, yet still put up 59 DKFP. A ceiling game is unlikely, but what if you can get Jokic at low ownership and this game stays competitive? Or do the Warriors starters play? Things to consider.
Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat at New York Knicks ($7,900) – The pace of this game will likely make Pat Riley smile from ear to ear. For fantasy folk, there likely won’t be many smiles, only frowns. That doesn’t mean fantasy goodies can’t be provided. Adebayo has become more of an offensive force this season, to go along with his defensive abilities. As a result, he’s shown a ceiling, going for at least 50 DKFP 10 times this season with a high of 61.25. The likely outcome is somewhere in the 30 to 40 range, but a ceiling game is within the range of outcomes, especially since the Knicks have been a sieve down low with no Mitchell Robinson. Adebayo should be able to feast against Hartenstein and Sims.
Other Options - Mason Plumlee ($6,500), Brook Lopez ($6,200)
Kevon Looney, Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets ($4,600) – Looney averages 1 DKFP per minute but he’s only averaging 23.4 per game this season. In games that Curry has sat, though, he has shouldered more responsibilities. Curry has missed 15 games. In those contests, Looney has gone for at least 30 DKFP six times with a high of 50.75. There’s a good chance that Curry and others sit this one out.
Other Options - JaMychal Green ($3,000)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.