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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks Today: NFL Week 14 Top High-Upside DFS Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

New York Jets v Buffalo Bills Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images

GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.

No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.

OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.

Let’s dive into Week 14.

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Game Stack: Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals

Gardner Minshew ($5,400) — Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,300) — Kylen Granson ($2,600) — Joe Mixon ($6,100)

The total for this Colts and Bengals game has moved from the low 40’s to 44.0 and it’s easy to understand why — both of these defenses have issues. The Bengals rank 31st in success rate against the pass and have also allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. That should make this a great spot for Gardner Minshew to produce. Minshew has been a serviceable real-life QB but has also had some DFS moments. He posted 34.1 DKFP against Cleveland in Week 7 and posted 22.38 points just last week against another weak pass defense in Tennessee.

Stacking Minshew is also easy due to a couple of factors — his cheap salary and the fact that he has Michael Pittman Jr. to throw to. Pittman Jr. enters this game having caught eight or more passes in five straight contests and will face a Bengals secondary that is without its best cornerback in Cam Taylor-Britt. Pittman Jr. is a no-brainer and the Minshew/Pittman stacks will be at least a little popular this week. However, we can be unique by double-stacking.

Kylen Granson is coming off a three reception, 72-yard game and has generally been a great mismatch downfield for the Colts. He’ll be playing a Bengals defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points and most receptions to opposing TEs this season.

This game does have a close spread, the Bengals offense is fully healthy (sans Joe Burrow) and they’re coming off a 34-point game. While we could choose any number of stars from this side of the ball, it is Joe Mixon who has the best matchup. Indianapolis’ rush defense has not been great since losing Shaq Leonard and has now allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and second-most rushing TDs to opposing RBs.

Mixon may have lost a few snaps to rookie Chase Brown last week but Brown is also banged up and Mixon remained the only RB last week to catch a pass (he went 6-49 receiving), which is a huge bonus given DraftKing’s PPR scoring. He’s a great comeback play and a great way to complete this underrated and potentially explosive Week 14 stack.

Quarterback: Baker Mayfield ($5,300), Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have become more of a pass funnel defense as the season has progressed. They’re now second in EPA versus the run but only 19th in EPA versus the pass. In the first game against the Bucs this season, they allowed Mayfield to throw for 275 yards and go for over 17.0 DKFP. Since then, Mayfield has had three more games with over 19.0 DKFP and has generally remained an above-average QB in terms of most advanced stats.

Given how poorly Tampa Bay moves the ball on the ground, this is a spot where Mayfield should be dropping back 35+ times. Atlanta moves the ball on the ground well enough (and Tampa Bay is banged up on defense) that there is some shootout potential for this game as well. Mayfield should see much better passing volume than he did last week and given the matchup and plethora of high-end receivers he has, it seems likely to push for a 4-5x kind of day at his current cheap salary.

Running Back

Top End: James Cook ($6,000), Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs are a great matchup for Cook. They rank just 21st in success rate against the run this season and could be without a starting linebacker in Drue Tranquill, who is questionable with a concussion. The Chiefs have also allowed at least one RB to go for 70+ rushing yards against them in every game since Week 7.

Cook is really good and has had a nice push since the Bills fired former OC Ken Dorsey. He has averaged 16.5 carries and caught nine passes over the last two weeks — going for over 16.0 DKFP in both of those starts. On the season, Cook also averages 4.8 yards per carry and is fourth in explosive run rate (rushes of 10+ yards). This is a great matchup and a great time to buy in on the still moderately-priced Bills RB.

Low End: Roschon Johnson ($4,900), Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

It’s always risky rostering someone like Johnson, who is part of a potential three-man rotation but the signs are there that the Bears may be leaning toward making Johnson their lead back. In Week 13, Johnson out-carried Khalil Herbert ($5,100), 10 to 6, and also caught five passes for 40 yards, a performance that carried the Bears offense in a close game against Minnesota. The rookie was also the most productive back they had the last time they faced the Lions, totaling 30 yards on just five carries.

Johnson is playing at home and this game is expected to have some heavier winds making it likely that we’ll see a ton of short passes and carries from whoever leads the Bears backfield. Betting on Johnson isn't necessary but if you’re looking for a very low-owned angle to target at RB this week in DFS, Johnson fits the bill for big-field GPPs.

Wide Receiver

Top End: Courtland Sutton ($6,100) Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Sutton only caught two passes last week but still churned out a 15.7 DKFP day with one of the passes going for a long TD. Sutton has also been knocking on the door of a big day for a while. He nearly went for over 100 yards last week and also had a near-miss TD on a long completion against Cleveland.

Despite the solid play of late and the fact he’s gone for over 15.0 DKFP in three of his last four games, Sutton remains very affordable this week in a terrific matchup. The Chargers’ secondary has been buried this year by opposing WRs — allowing the third-most fantasy points and 13 TDs to the position. The Broncos’ defensive issues and the fact they are up against an above-average QB this week also means they’ll likely have to throw a little more — making this a great breakout spot for Sutton and a great time to target him for DFS.

Top Value: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100), Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers offense puts pressure on everyone it faces and that will inevitably lead to more pass attempts and more catches for the receivers on the opposing offense — most of the time. While he didn’t do much in the first meeting between these two teams, the Seahawks made a concerted effort to get Smith-Njigba more involved against the Cowboys and he responded by going for seven catches for 62 yards (he also had a TD catch that was narrowly overturned).

Expect the Seahawks to continue to feed Smith-Njigba this week as well. The 49ers have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs and second-most receptions to all WRs this season. The Seahawks will likely utilize more quick passes in this rematch (after Geno Smith was hit far too many times the first time) and Smith-Njigba should benefit more than any Seahawks WR in the process.

Tight End: Cade Otton ($3,100), Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

I mentioned the matchup for the Buccaneers passing game above and Otton is one of the players who should benefit the most from facing Atlanta. While he was shutout on the stat sheet last week, Otton has still produced four or more catches in five of his last seven games and generally has been used far more as a downfield target in the second half of the season. He comes into this week with an average catch mark of over 11.0 yards in three of his last four games.

The Falcons have had issues guarding opposing TEs all season. They’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receptions to opposing TEs. Otton himself has gone for four catches and over 40 yards against Atlanta in two of the last three meetings. At just $3,100, he’s a good buy-low candidate and a great high-upside target for bigger-field GPPs given the opponent.

Defense/Special Teams: Chicago Bears ($2,400) vs Detroit Lions

As mentioned earlier, the Bears’ game is expected to have winds in the 12-14 MPH range and temperatures that will be around freezing. That’s not great news for a QB like Jared Goff ($6,400), who is used to playing in a dome and has had issues with turning the ball over lately (three fumbles and three INTs in the last three games).

The Bears picked Goff off three times in Week 11 and have been playing some extremely high-end football. They have become near impossible to run on after adding LB Montez Sweat and now have eight turnovers over the last three games alone. This price looks far too low for a D/ST unit with this much confidence that is now getting great conditions to go after a QB who has been regressing at a fast rate.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.