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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Top DraftKings NBA DFS Targets, Values for December 30

Pearce Dietrich gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Saturday’s fantasy basketball slate on DraftKings.

Milwaukee Bucks v New York Knicks Photo by Rich Graessle/Getty Images

Saturday Night NBA DFS features a small slate this weekend. It’s a small one but that means you can enjoy every game with just a few screens. Let’s dig into some research and make some picks, as we gear up for the four-game main slate that starts at 7 p.m. ET.

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Guard

Studs

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, $11,700 — The Mavs listed Doncic as questionable for Saturday’s game after sitting on Thursday. The Mavs-Warriors game is the last to lock. This will be fun. At least the game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET. This is a four-game slate. NBA DFS players cannot fade the guy that scored 97.5 DKFP on Christmas. That was a Santa-level performance. He scored 79 DKFP on Dec. 23. He’s scored over 60 DKFP in 11 of his last 14 games. If he plays, play him.

Value

Alex Caruso, Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ers, $5,400 — The NBA DFS value picks are not obvious for Saturday’s four-game slate. As injury reports are released every hour, new NBA DFS value picks will form. Until then, it’s the usual suspects. Chicago’s “Big 3” — more like “Mid 3” — are out. This boosts all of the cheap and mid-priced Bulls. The Chicago Toros’ Caruso is a safe way to save Pesos. He’s returned 5x value in four of the last six games.

Seth Curry, Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, $4,200 — Raise your hand if you’ve been burned by Seth Curry during the last couple weeks. Happy Holidays, Seth. The DFS streets are tough. Curry dropped another dud on Thursday Dec. 28. He played 30 minutes but only scored 17.5 DKFP. That didn’t totally kill DFS lineups at his price ($4,000), and a similar score will not sink lineups on Saturday. On Dec. 27, his threes went in and he scored 32 DKFP (9.7x value). If Doncic plays, then Curry is fine. If Doncic is out, then Curry is mandatory.


Forward

Studs

Julius Randle, New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, $8,700 — This is a great spot for the Knicks. On a full slate, they would be studs. On a four-gamer, they’re “jam-em-ins.” Anyone against the Pacers are the play. Indiana plays at the fastest pace in the NBA. Along with their up-and-down style, they have the third-worst defense (117.9 Defensive Efficiency Rating). Randle scored 63 DKFP in 36 minutes with a 38.9% usage rate in the Knicks’ loss to the Magic on Friday. He could easily hit 70 DKFP on Saturday if he gets similar minutes and usage.

Value

Derrick Jones Jr,. Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, $5,300 — The Warriors are not a good team anymore. Their front court is nothing to fear. Some might argue otherwise, but matchups don’t seem to matter for Jones. This game has a healthy 240.5 total and the line is only four points in favor of the Warriors. Points will be scored. Jones will score them. He’s scored 31.75, 26.75 and 34.25 DKFP in his last three games. Over those games he’s averaging over 30 minutes with a usage rate above 20%.

Trayce Jackson-Davis, Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks, $4,800 — The weekend NBA DFS Targets article featured Triple Jack as a value pick in both editions last week. Those were the only times TJD failed over the last week. Those were the only games he did not get at least 18 minutes. The third-string big man has been hyper efficient in limited minutes. His minutes should increase on Saturday. Kevon Looney ($3,900) is ill. He might not play but should be limited. All TJD needs is minutes.


Center

Studs

Andre Drummond, Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ers, $8,000 — The old man is no longer $4,700. That’s fine. His current price is not too steep. Some balked at his $7,500 salary on Thursday. They got it right. Drummond shot 3-for-9 and scored 28.5 DKFP. That’s a highly probable outcome for Drummond. It’s a good wake up call and most people will jump off the band wagon. That means a player with upside will be low owned on a four-game slate. In the dud, Drummond still grabbed 16 rebounds. He can be a stud, if he scores. The 76ers present a tough matchup, but the Sixers are only favored by one point. This is a sign that Joel Embiid ($11,000) might not play. Philly has not released their Injury Report at the time of publish. That report will alter the slate.

Value

Isaiah Hartenstein, New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, $5,800 — His eight-game streak of 30 minutes or more ended on Friday. Foul trouble will do that. Saturday should be business as usual. Hartenstein is the Knicks third option. There’s enough left over volume for him to reach value. That’s on a normal night. This is not a normal game — 247.5 total. The Pacers play at the fastest pace in the NBA and don’t play defense. This should be a good night for the Knicks.

Jalen Smith, Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks, $4,900 — This is the early value favorite for the four-game slate. Jalen “Stix” Smith should stick. His multi-positional eligibility helps. The Pacers’ pace helps. Becoming a starter helps, too. The Pacers made significant changes to their starting lineup and it worked. They won both games with Smith starting and playing over 20 minutes in each.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.