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Fantasy Football Picks: Eagles vs. Seahawks DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Eagles and the Seahawks with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Cleveland Browns v Seattle Seahawks Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images

If you think this NFL season has been especially difficult for quarterbacks, take a moment to consider your local DFS writer — the real victim. It truly feels like a quarterback has been listed as questionable for at least half of the primetime Showdown slates so far this season and, of course, Monday Night Football in Week 15 will be no different. In fact, it will be worse, as both the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks have listed their starting pivot on the injury report. Woof.

Let’s try and sort through the madness.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (PHI vs SEA)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Jalen Hurts ($17,100 CP) - Hurts played his worst game of the season in Week 14, registering a paltry 9.88 DKFP against the Cowboys in a lopsided loss. Hurts is also sick. Sick enough to miss practice on Saturday. Sick enough to necessitate a private flight to Seattle away from the rest of the team. Sick enough to be officially listed as questionable. Still, I think he plays, and if that’s the case, he’s obviously viable. Hurts entered Week 15 sitting second among all quarterbacks in both total DKFP (320.4) and DKFP earned per drop back (0.64). He’s the dictionary definition of a dual-threat QB, with the added bonus of an unstoppable goal line play in his back pocket. To wit, Hurts doesn’t just lead all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns (12), he’s got the third-most in the entire league, trailing only Christian McCaffrey in terms of NFC skill-position assets. You’re basically getting two players for the price of one — albeit a hefty price.

Drew Lock ($13,800 CP) - I’ll be honest, I didn’t think I’d be promoting Lock as a Captain’s pick ever again, but here we are. Lock was fine making a spot start for the injured Geno Smith ($9,400; groin) in Week 14, especially when you consider the matchup. The former second-round pick threw for 269 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the 49ers, with a couple of interceptions mixed in for good measure. That’s the usual give-and-take with the always aggressive Lock, yet it’s a formula that might work ever better in tonight’s contest versus Philadelphia. For all the acclaim that Eagles D/ST ($4,600) normally generates, the unit has been awful defending the pass this season. In fact, Philadelphia is surrendering a league-high 299.3 passing yards per game since Week 12, while the Eagles are also giving up the most DKFP per contest to opposing quarterbacks for the season as a whole. It seems like Smith is trending towards not playing, which would give Lock another start. Even if it’s in garbage time, I expect Seattle will be able to move the ball through the air.


FLEX Plays

Tyler Lockett ($6,600) - I’m having a difficult time wrapping my mind around this price tag. While I have zero issue with DK Metcalf ($9,600) being the higher-priced receiving asset on the Seahawks’ roster, a $3K gap in salary seems excessive. Heck, as recently as Week 8, Lockett also carried a price of at least $9K. So what’s changed? Lockett comes into Week 15 leading Seattle in receptions (65) and tied with Metcalf for the team-lead in targets (93). Yes, Metcalf has garnered more attention in the red zone, though it’s not like Lockett’s 20.4% target share inside the 20 is an embarrassment. It simply doesn’t make any sense, yet it’s a welcomed discount, as Lockett stacks well with whoever ends up starting under center for the Seahawks on Monday.

Kenneth Gainwell ($4,400) - While some of Gainwell’s recent role can be chalked up to a couple unusual scripts for the Eagles, the fact remains that the Memphis product has out-snapped D’Andre Swift ($8,000) 64-to-58 since the beginning of Week 13. That doesn’t mean that Gainwell is suddenly the featured back or that Swift won’t receive 20 carries if Philadelphia takes a sizeable lead in this contest. However, it does indicate that Gainwell will be involved, which is all you can ask for an asset priced this close to $4K. Gainwell also racked up five receptions on six targets earlier this month. That’s something worth watching in a full-point PPR setting.


Fades

Kenneth Walker III ($7,800) - The Eagles defense creates what we in the business refer to as a “funnel effect” on its opponents. Philadelphia has only faced a running play on 34.2% of opponent offensive plays through 13 games — the second-lowest rate in the NFL. Now, the reasoning for this is two-fold. First, the Eagles have tended to have a lead during most of their opponent’s drives. Second, for as terrible as Philadelphia’s secondary has been, its defensive line has been masterful at stopping the run, surrendering the second-fewest DKFP per game to running backs. That leaves Walker III in a bit of a tough spot on Monday. It also doesn’t help matters that Walker III now appears to be in a full-fledged committee, with Zach Charbonnett ($4,000) seeing more carries in Week 14. Charbonnett even got the duo’s lone handoff in the red zone against the 49ers. That’s not ideal.


THE OUTCOME

For as poor as the Eagles have looked recently, the Seahawks have been just as dire. In fact, Seattle’s dropped its last four games overall and each of its past six contest as the underdog. With Geno Smith seemingly more likely than Jalen Hurts to sit, I’ll predict a bounce-back performance from Philly.

Final Score: Philadelphia 28, Seattle 21

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (PHI vs SEA)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.