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Fantasy Football Picks: Titans vs. Dolphins DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Titans and the Dolphins with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Miami Dolphins v Washington Commanders Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

It might be difficult to remember, with all the point-scoring and speed of this current iteration of the Miami Dolphins, but this used to be a pretty boring franchise. Case and point: This evening will be the first time the Dolphins have hosted a Monday Night Football game in six years. They’ll continue their fight for the one-seed in the AFC in primetime, squaring off with the Tennessee Titans.

Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Monday Night Showdown [$100K to 1st] (TEN vs MIA)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Tyreek Hill ($18,000 CP) - Is this an obvious play? For sure. But it would feel wrong to build a lineup on this slate around any other asset. Hill entered Week 14 leading the NFL in almost every single important receiving statistic. That includes: Receiving yards (1,480), 100-yard receiving games (8) and receiving touchdowns (12). No skill-position asset has complied more total DKFP (338.5). No qualified skill-position asset is producing more DKFP per snap logged (0.66). In fact, Christian McCaffrey sits in second in that category and he isn’t even in the same stratosphere as Hill, averaging just 0.51 DKFP. There’s simply no wideout in football with Hill’s unique skill-set. There’s also no wideout as heavily featured. Hill has seen a target on a whopping 35.6% of the routes he’s run this season. No other WR owns a rate over 28.3%. Hill is a threat for a huge performance every single time he takes the field, and in a matchup with a Titans D/ST ($3,000) that’s surrendering the third-most DKFP per contest to opposing wide receivers, he’s especially a threat tonight.

Dolphins D/ST ($8,400 CP) - This is a bit of a zag — though it shouldn’t be. While all of the media attention is placed on Miami’s explosive offense, the team’s defense has really found its groove since the return of Jalen Ramsey. To wit, the Dolphins are allowing a paltry 13.7 points per game since the beginning of Week 11. Miami is also giving up just 4.2 opponent yards per play in that span of time, a figure which ranks third-lowest in the whole NFL. The crux of this unit’s improved play? Pressure. Few teams have been as successful as the Dolphins at getting to the quarterback, with Miami actually leading the league in sack rate (9.28%). The Dolphins rank second in pressure rate, as well (26.7%). Sacks, or the threat of sacks, are key when it comes to a defense’s viability in DFS, as pressure often leads directly to turnovers. This is especially true when a young QB like Will Levis ($8,600) is involved.


Value FLEX Plays

Treylon Burks ($2,200) - In Week 13’s loss to the Colts, Burks was active for the first time since Week 9. However, the former first-round pick only logged 10 snaps and was held without a target. So, why do I have any interest at all? Because Mike Vrabel does. The Titans head coach went out of his way this week to suggest that Burks should get more opportunity against the Dolphins, and it makes a lot of sense. Tennessee is 4-8. It's not making the playoffs and it's not getting much production out of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,200) or Chris Moore ($1,600). It’s time to see what the team has in Burks. In a contest where they should be playing in a very negative script, expect Burks to see some volume in the passing attack.

River Cracraft ($1,600) - The Dolphins have a bevy of tertiary receiving options, all of whom tend to see significant snaps. Cracraft finds himself in a mix with the likes of Braxton Berrios ($2,400), Cedrick Wilson ($1,800) and Robbie Chosen ($1,000); however the wideout differentiates himself with his blocking ability. That may not translate directly to DFS success, but it gets you on the field for one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Cracraft also appears to be fully healthy after a shoulder issue caused him to miss two months of the season. He made two catches in last weekend’s win over the Commanders, the third time in Cracraft’s six games that he’s made multiple receptions.


Fades

Derrick Henry ($9,400) - The Titans dodged a bullet earlier this week when it was revealed that Henry would not have to enter the league’s concussion protocols. Still, while the team is surely happy to have the services of its best player, this isn’t exactly a dream spot for the RB. For the season as a whole, Miami is surrendering the seventh-fewest DKFP per contest to opposing running backs, and the numbers only get better in recent weeks. In fact, the Dolphins are allowing just 67.7 opponent rushing yards per game going back to Week 11 — the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Heck, Miami hasn’t conceded a 100-yard rusher since its opening game of the season, while an opposing running back hasn’t found the end zone versus the Dolphins since Week 7. It also doesn’t help matters that Tennessee is a two-touchdown underdog on Monday, setting up a script that seems far more favorable to the skill-set of Tyjae Spears ($6,200). Henry’s had his share of clunkers in 2023. This could be another.


THE OUTCOME

While it’s certainly fair to debate the merit of Miami’s 9-3 record, it’s undeniable that the Dolphins have excelled in winning the games they’re supposed to win. Miami is 8-4 ATS overall, yet 7-1 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 ATS when playing at home. Meanwhile, the Titans have lost their last nine contests on the road. Basically, it’s nice that there are two MNF games this evening, because this one might get lopsided very quickly.

Final Score: Miami 31, Tennessee 13

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Monday Night Showdown [$100K to 1st] (TEN vs MIA)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.