clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Fantasy Football Picks: Chargers vs. Jets DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Chargers and the Jets with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

I know there’s nothing we can really do about it. I know that even without Aaron Rodgers (Achilles), the New York Jets are a team that does well for ratings — but I’m truly tired of seeing Zach Wilson ($8,800) in primetime. Actually, considering this is the Los Angeles Chargers third primetime game in the last four weeks, I’m a little tired of them, too. ...Maybe I’m just grumpy? I’ll think that over a little later.

In the meantime, let’s break down tonight’s MNF tilt from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (LAC vs NYJ)


Captain’s Picks

Austin Ekeler ($18,000 CP) - Ekeler is the most-expensive asset on this slate, yet he’s deserving of that title. Not only is the veteran seemingly locked into about a 65% offensive snap share, but Ekeler handles a majority of the goal line work for the Chargers and he’s hyper-involved in the passing game. There’s a reason he was a consensus top pick in redraft formats coming into 2023. Specific to this evening, Ekeler has an easier matchup than you might think — at least based on the reputation of the Jets D/ST ($4,200). New York has actually been quite generous towards opposing RBs, surrendering the sixth-most DKFP per contest to the position. That’s a direct result of the Jets allowing both the second-most opponent rushing yards per game (144.9) and the third-most targets per game to running backs (8.6). Ekeler posted seven catches for 94 yards and a touchdown just last week. He’s very capable of exploiting these flaws.

Garrett Wilson ($14,400 CP) - New York isn’t the only team with some suspect defensive results through eight weeks. Chargers D/ST ($5,000) has been completely unable to control their opponents passing attacks. To wit, Los Angeles is conceding an NFL-worst 297.4 passing yards per contest and 7.8 yards per opponent pass attempt. So, while those numbers don’t make me want to trust Zach Wilson — more on him later — they do pump up the value of his no. 1 target. Garrett Wilson is about as involved as any wideout in the entire league. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year has registered at least a 30.0% target per route rate in three of his last four games, while Wilson also leads the NFL by a considerable margin in red zone target rate (57.9%). Odds are pretty good, if the Jets do anything in the air, Wilson was responsible. He’s the asset to claim in a fantastic matchup.

FLEX Plays

Chargers D/ST ($5,000) - It looks like we’re going to avoid any rain in tonight’s tilt, but the total remains incredibly low. As it should. Did you watch the first 59 minutes of last weekend’s Jets-Giants game? It almost broke my brain. A lot of the blame for the Jets’ offensive struggles obviously falls at the feet of Zach Wilson, but let’s not overlook the offensive line. New York currently has four starting lineman on the IR: Conner McGovern (knee), Wes Schweitzer (calf), Duane Brown (hip) and Alijah Vera-Tucker (Achilles). As such, Wilson’s been sacked on an eye-popping 12.0% of his passing attempts since Week 5, a span where the QB has also fumbled four times. Look for Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack to wreck some havoc and force some turnovers.

Quentin Johnston ($3,600) - The injustice of this slate is that Jalen Guyton is not listed, as he surely would’ve been the bare minimum coming off the IR and playing for the first time since Week 3 of last season. So, instead, we’ll have to settle for Johnston, who should also heavily benefit from the absence of Joshua Palmer (knee). The rookie has seen his snap count steadily rise in recent weeks, culminating in Johnston logging a career-high 69.6% snap share in last week’s win over the Bears. Not surprisingly, that led to career-highs in targets (6), catches (5) and receiving yards (50), as well. Johnston, who stands 6’4, seems like an obvious Mike Williams replacement and should garner a ton of looks from Justin Herbert ($11,800) in the red zone. If he scores a touchdown on Monday, he’ll likely be the best dollar-for-dollar asset on the whole slate.


Zach Wilson ($8,800) - I get it. It’s a single-game slate. Wilson’s price tag is less than $9K. Los Angeles has surrendered the most DKFP per game to opposing quarterbacks. However, when you dig into the individual game logs, the Chargers secondary might not be that bad. Los Angeles did allow Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins to average 419.0 passing yards and 3.3 touchdowns per start; yet, in the team’s other four contests, QBs are producing just 247.0 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Basically, the Chargers have struggled to defend the league’s best passing attacks, but have shut down everyone else. Wilson, who is garnering 0.32 DKFP per drop back, the second-lowest mark of any pivot with at least 200 drop backs this season, is not elite. He’s not Mahomes. Don’t get sucked in to what seems on paper like a decent matchup.


Depending on who you ask, football games are either won in the trenches or they come down to which side has the better QB. On Monday, in both cases, the Chargers have the clear advantage. Los Angeles has been underwhelming to start this season, but I think they come out with a commanding victory against an AFC rival.

Final Score: Los Angeles 24, New York 13

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (LAC vs NYJ)

The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!

For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.