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Fantasy Football Picks: Seahawks vs. Cowboys DraftKings NFL DFS TNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Thursday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Seahawks and the Cowboys with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Philadelphia Eagles v Dallas Cowboys Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

The current narrative surrounding the Dallas Cowboys is that they haven’t beaten a good team. Unfortunately, I’m not sure Week 13 is going to solve that problem, because I have no idea how to classify the Seattle Seahawks. Apologies to anyone I’ve offended in the state of Washington, but the middle-class of the NFC seems pretty underwhelming and wins over Sam Howell and P.J. Walker don’t exactly move the needle for me.

However, a win over Dak Prescott ($11,000) would open some eyes. Can Seattle pull it off? Let’s dive into Thursday Night Football.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SEA vs DAL)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

CeeDee Lamb ($17,100 CP) - Lamb is the most expensive asset on Thursday’s slate, but it’s difficult to make an argument that the wideout doesn’t deserve that acclaim. To put it simply: Lamb has been operating on another plane of existence since the beginning of Week 8. In that five-week sample, the former first-round pick leads all wide receivers in receiving yards (591), touchdown receptions (5), red zone targets (22) and DKFP (151.4). In fact, Lamb is one of only two WRs to have even 110.0 DKFP in that span of time. He’s almost lapping the field when it comes to DFS production. For the season as a whole, Lamb is also one of nine WRs who have been targeted on at least 26% of their routes run. He clearly has a connection with the aforementioned Prescott and, while the price tag is hefty, there’s no way I’m fading him in a single-game contest.

Tony Pollard ($14,700 CP) - Pollard has been frustrating owners all season long. The biggest issue? Pollard’s inability to find the end zone. After posting a very enticing 4.7% touchdown rate in his breakout 2022 campaign, the 26-year-old has seen that figure fall to just 2.5% through 11 games. Things have been looking better recently, though, as Pollard has scored in each of his past two starts — and there’s a case to be made that that is just the beginning of his touchdown regression. Nothing is more important than volume when it comes to projecting TDs and Pollard enters Week 13 trailing only Christian McCaffrey in red zone rushing attempts (40). It should then come as no surprise that Pollard also ranks second in the NFL in expected rushing touchdowns (7.8). He’s due. Plus, a matchup with Seahawks D/ST ($3,400) might be just what the doctor ordered. Seattle has surrendered both the fourth-most DKFP per contest to opposing RBs and the fourth-most opponent rushing touchdowns per game (1.3).


FLEX Plays

Zach Charbonnet ($6,800) - On paper, this is a poor matchup for the rookie. Cowboys D/ST ($5,600) has been stout against the run, holding opposing running backs to the fourth-fewest DKFP per game and a paltry 4.1 yards per carry. Still, I’m having a hard time ignoring the bell cow role that Charbonnet inhabited in Week 12’s loss to the 49ers. With Kenneth Walker III ($8,400; oblique) sidelined, Charbonnet was essentially an every-down back, finishing the lopsided loss with 18 touches and an eye-popping 87.5% snap share. Sure, that only translated to 9.8 DKFP, but that’s not normally a workload you can purchase for less than $7K on a Showdown slate — particularly when you factor in how involved Charbonnet has been in Seattle’s passing attack. With Walker III doubtful to suit up against Dallas, I’ll give the second-round pick an opportunity to prove himself in another primetime spot.

Cowboys D/ST ($5,600) - I mean... We can just pencil in a DaRon Bland pick-six at this point, right? While the sophomore corner has been making headlines in recent weeks, Dallas’ defense has been more than solid all year long. Coming into Week 13, the Cowboys have forced a turnover on 14.2% of opponent drives — the ninth-highest rate in the league — while only allowing an opponent score on an NFC-best 27.5% of drives. A defensive line led by Micah Parsons can also get to the quarterback, something that has been an issue for the Seahawks in recent weeks. Geno Smith ($9,200) has been sacked 13 times in his last four starts, including six sacks on Thanksgiving versus San Francisco. Heck, Smith’s at less than 100% because Aaron Donald knocked him around in Week 11. Seattle’s offensive line isn’t the most trustworthy at the moment.


Fades

Geno Smith ($9,200) - As mentioned above, Smith is dealing with an elbow injury and the veteran didn’t look quite like himself in a disappointing showing in Week 12. However, my reluctance to roster Smith is about a much larger trend of mediocrity. If you remove a fantastic showing against the Commanders in early November — every QB goes off versus Washington — Smith is averaging just 11.8 DKFP per game dating back to Week 4. For the season as a whole, Smith is producing a microscopic 0.40 DKFP per drop back, the same figure as Tyson Bagent and far less than the likes of Tommy DeVito and Gardner Minshew. Even in the most optimistic view, Smith has been middling at best. That won’t cut it in Dallas.


THE OUTCOME

The Cowboys have won their last 13 games at AT&T Stadium and they’re 9-1 ATS the last 10 games they’ve been favored. Dallas just tends to take care of its business, especially when facing inferior competition. As someone who happens to think Seattle’s 6-5 record says more about the NFC than it does the Seahawks, I’ll take the Cowboys to roll on Thursday.

Final Score: Dallas 31, Seattle 17

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SEA vs DAL)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.