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Fantasy Football Picks: Dolphins vs. Jets DraftKings NFL DFS Black Friday Showdown Strategy

Steve gives his top DraftKings NFL Showdown picks for Friday’s Black Friday NFL game between the Dolphins and Jets.

NFL: Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

For the first time in NFL history, a special Black Friday game will take place between the Dolphins and Jets. Maybe it’s not exactly the barnburner they had hoped for when the schedule was made, but, nonetheless, we get a game smack dab in the middle of the afternoon on a Friday.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Black Friday Showdown [$300K to 1st] (MIA vs NYJ)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Pick

Raheem Mostert (CP $15,300)

The stars are aligning for a monster role for the Dolphins running back. With fellow back De’Von Achane ($13,500/$9,000) nursing a knee injury and Salvon Ahmed ($5,100/$3,400) being placed on IR, Mostert is primed to be the RB1. His practice reps have been limited this week but it sounds more like the Dolphins are capping his reps, rather than due to an inability. He is nursing both a knee and ankle injury, but all signs are pointing to him suiting up. It’s a great matchup for him, as the Jets struggle against the run, allowing an average of 101 rushing, 44 receiving, and seven total touchdowns to opposing running backs. Last week, Mostert carried the ball a season-high 22 times for 86 yards. He could see a similar role in this game, especially with the Dolphins as huge 10-point favorites. Mostert was already handling 64% of the rush attempts at the goal line, so his likelihood of scoring feels incredibly high in this game and is priced on DraftKings Sportsbook at -130.

FLEX Plays

Tyreek Hill ($12,400)

I mean, barring a surprising inactive from Hill, who is dealing with a hand injury, you play the man. The Jets haven’t shadowed a receiver this season, so we shouldn’t have to worry about him sparring with Sauce Gardner throughout the game. What’s ridiculous about Hill is that he’s averaging over four yards per route run this season. That’s almost a yard more than any qualified receiver in the league at this point. What else do you say about the man?

Tyler Conklin ($3,200)

Showdown rules do state we must play at least one player from each team, so we do need to roster someone. I do like the matchup for Conklin, who is very cheap relative to his more recent game logs. While rostering any pass catcher is risky, one thing is for sure and that’s Tim Boyle ($6,000) isn’t throwing deep. He owns a career 5.1 yards per pass attempt through 120 pass attempts. Even when he was starting for the Lions back in 2021, he averaged 5.6 YPA and only took five attempts of at least 20 yards and 17 of 10-19 yards. This sets up nicely for Conklin against a Dolphins defense allowing 55.5 receiving yards to opposing tight ends. In what says a lot about the state of this Jets offense, this is the pass catcher I have the most confidence in. Yikes.

Dolphins D/ST ($5,200)

I normally don’t prioritize a D/ST but I’m doing so for this game. Boyle owns a career 3:9 TD:INT through 120 pass attempts. The offensive line is allowing a ton of pressure, as Wilson was under pressure on 42% of his dropbacks. The Dolphins will put a lot of pressure on Boyle and potentially create some turnovers. The Jets just lost OT Mekhi Becton to a sprained ankle, causing an already depleted offensive line to be even worse. This D/ST is a bit pricey but with it sandwiched in between the two kickers, I think there is a very strong chance the D/ST can outscore them.


Fades

Garrett Wilson ($8,600)

I just can’t see how you can pay up for Wilson in this game. Sure, we can point to him playing last week at less than 100% as he made just two catches on eight targets for a whopping nine yards and 1.9 DKFP. As I mentioned earlier, I expect the Dolphins to make Boyle as uncomfortable as possible and consistently have him under pressure. I do not see how Wilson could return value, even at a cheaper $8,600 salary.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Black Friday Showdown [$300K to 1st] (MIA vs NYJ)


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.