We have a four-game slate on this Monday. De’Aaron Fox ($8,400) is listed as doubtful while Damian Lillard ($9,200) is probable. OG Anunoby ($6,200) is questionable while Alex Caruso ($4,600) is doubtful. Teams that are playing the second leg of a back-to-back are: CHI, NYK and WAS. None of the teams on today’s slate play on Tuesday.
DraftKings Sportsbook has three games with a spread of at least 9 points: BOS -9 over NYK, TOR -9.5 over WAS and MIL -9 over CHI. The highest totals are the WAS/TOR and CHI/MIL games, both at 229.5. The CLE/SAC game has the lowest total at 221. SAC is the only home dog on the slate.
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards ($9,000) – It’s crazy to think that Barnes was priced at $6,700 for opening night. Life comes at us fast! Barnes is making the third-year breakout and has averaged 20.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.4 steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in the first nine games of the season. He’s garnering a 25 usage rate after being at 20 last season. He had scored at least 44 DKFP in each of the first eight games with four of those over 50 and a high of 67.25. He was held to only 26.75 DKFP on Saturday, but that was against Boston — one of the best defensive teams in the league. Tonight, he faces a Washington team that is 7th in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency.
Other Options - Zach LaVine ($7,800), Malik Monk ($6,000)
Coby White, Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks ($5,400) – White only averages 0.8 DKFP per minute and is garnering an 18.9 usage rate on the season. That said, he’s averaging 32.2 minutes and is in a pace-up spot, as the Bucks are playing at the second-fastest pace. In addition, the Bucks defense has been a sieve so far this season, posting the 25th-best defensive efficiency. White has gone for at least 30 DKFP in each of the last three contests.
Other Options - Kevin Huerter ($5,900), Max Strus ($5,700), Keon Ellis ($3,900), Malachi Flynn ($3,500), Ayo Dosunmu ($3,400) if Alex Caruso is out, Gradey Dick ($3,300) if OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. are out
Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks ($7,800) – This is not the safest option, and it’s well within the range of outcomes that LaVine ends up with only 20 DKFP. That said, he does have a 60-DKFP upside, and I think he has a chance to have a ceiling game in this one. First off, the matchup is a good one, as the Bucks are 2nd in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. Against shooting guards, they have boosted the FPPM by 13.5%. Finally, the sample sizes are small, but LaVine has been much more productive on the road than at home. In six home games, the True Shooting is 51% compared to 59% in four road games. The usage rate has been 25.9 at home and 31 on the road. Now, a 51-point game against the Pistons definitely skews things but that’s the kind of ceiling that is possible.
Other Options - Scottie Barnes ($9,000), Julius Randle ($8,100), DeMar DeRozan ($7,400), Evan Mobley ($7,400)
Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors ($3,900) – I kind of hate this recommendation because it’s point-chasy as Coulibaly went for 42.25 DKFP last night. The range of outcomes is extremely wide, as he could end up in the teens. That said, he’s played at least 30 minutes in two of the last three games and he is just so calm and poised out there. He’s shooting over 40% from downtown and contributes in a variety of ways, especially on the defensive end.
Other Options - Max Strus ($5,700), Otto Porter Jr. ($3,400), Ayo Dosunmu ($3,400) if Alex Caruso is out, Otto Porter Jr. ($3,400) and Gradey Dick ($3,300) if OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. are out
Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards ($8,000) – Siakam has struggled this season. He’s shooting a career-low 43% from the field and many of the counting stats have declined because he’s playing two fewer minutes than last season. He’s only averaging 0.98 DKFP per minute after posting a 1.19 mark last season. Two games ago, there was a nostalgic flash, as he went for 53.5 DKFP. The matchup is fantastic tonight, as the Wizards play fast while eschewing defense. Could he disappoint again? Most definitely, but I like vintage Siakam to make an appearance.
Other Options - Julius Randle ($8,100), Evan Mobley ($7,400)
Daniel Gafford, Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors ($5,500) – When Gafford is on the court, he racks up blocks and rebounds. He’s averaging one DKFP per minute. Unfortunately, he’s dealt with injuries and has been prone to foul trouble, so there’s been no way to tell when he will score in the teens and when he goes for 30 DKFP. I will just let the Universe guide me here as the game logs show that he’s played 21, 28, 20, 30, 13, 30 and 16 minutes this season. Correspondingly, he’s put up 16.25, 28.75, 14.75, 33.25, 16.25, 33.75 and 14.75 DKFP. If the SATs taught me anything, it’s that Gafford should score in the 30 DKFP range today.
Other Options - Precious Achiuwa ($4,600)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.