Fantasy Baseball Picks: Rangers vs. Diamondbacks DraftKings MLB DFS Showdown Strategy for October 31

Well, it’s Halloween. Usually, that would have very little to do with the fact that it’s also Game 4 of the World Series, yet for some baseball fans, nothing is scarier than the thought of dueling bullpen games in a contest of this magnitude. Way to freak out the septuagenarians, MLB. Good job.

It’s the Texas Rangers. It’s the Arizona Diamondbacks. Let’s get into it.

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st] (TEX vs ARI)

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Corey Seager ($15,000 CP) - There’s no telling how the Diamondbacks might construct their pitching after Joe Mantiply ($4,000), but the reasonable assumption would be that Seager will face at least four different arms in Game 4. Thankfully, the All-Star has very few weaknesses. Seager has been fantastic in his 72 plate appearances in the playoffs, slashing .298/.444/.649 with a 190 wRC+. It’s a continuation of what the shortstop was able to accomplish throughout a stunning regular season, where Seager’s .413 expected wOBA trailed only Ronald Acuna and Shohei Ohtani — the likely MVPs in each league. The left-handed Seager was obviously at his best in an opposite-hand matchup, posting an eye-popping 183 wRC+ within the split. However, Seager was also able to register fantastic numbers in left-on-left scenarios, as evidenced by a .314 average and an .881 OPS. No matter who is on the mound for Arizona, I like Seager’s chances to produce.

Ketel Marte ($13,800 CP) - At this point, how can you fade the man? Marte has gone full Joe DiMaggio so far in the postseason, recording a hit in all 15 contests he’s appeared. As you might expect, that’s led to some pretty nice production, with Marte slashing .333/.362/.545 with a 143 wRC+ in 69 plate appearances. However, the aspect of the infielder’s game that’s most appealing on Tuesday is his ability to switch-hit. The Rangers will start Andrew Heaney ($10,000) in Game 4 after Jon Gray ($11,000) was forced into emergency duty in Game 3. That sets up another pitching script that should be filled with both left-handed and right-handed relievers. That won’t be an issue for Marte, as the 30-year-old was able to muster a wOBA above .350 and an OPS above .825 within each split during the regular season. Still, Marte was at his best as an RHB, posting a .313 average and a 138 wRC+ in his 199 PAs against LHPs. Heaney, Cody Bradford ($4,000) and Martin Perez ($10,000) — the long-relief options out of Texas’ bullpen — are all southpaws.

FLEX Plays

Mitch Garver ($7,000) - Keep an eye on Garver. The backstop only has one hit so far in the World Series — a home run in Game 2 — but he came very close to hitting another in the ninth inning on Monday. In fact, his 412-foot barrel would have been a long ball in 19 of the 30 MLB ballparks, according to Statcast. Just not Chase Field. Power has never been a question for Garver, who hit 19 homers in 344 plate appearances during the regular season. If Adolis Garcia ($9,800; side) is unable to start this evening, Garver would present a very cost-effective path to getting a clean-up hitter in your lineups.

Tommy Pham ($6,600) - If the aforementioned Marte has been the Diamondbacks’ best hitter throughout the playoffs, Pham’s been the team’s hottest hitter during the World Series. The veteran has seven hits over the past three games, including a home run and three doubles. If the Rangers do end up leaning on their left-handed bullpen options — or attempt to extend Heaney — look for Pham to stay locked in. During the regular season, Pham hit nine of his 16 home runs off of LHPs, while possessing an elite .392 expected wOBA within the split.

Ryan Thompson ($4,000) - There’s clearly risk in using a reliever in Showdown, but Thompson seems like the safest bet in Arizona’s bullpen in Game 4. The veteran has been good so far in the playoffs, posting a 2.31 ERA and a 2.91 FIP across his nine games. Crucially, Thompson has tended to pitch multiple innings for Torey Lovullo, with five of those nine appearances culminating in at least four outs — including three of his last four. Thompson isn’t a big strikeout guy. He’s not Kevin Ginkel ($4,000). However, he’s not script-dependant like Ginkel, either. We could see Thompson as soon as the fourth or fifth inning, which mitigates some of the variables.

Fades

Andrew Heaney ($10,000) - You just can’t. While Heaney is reasonably stretched out — he threw 85 pitches in his final appearance of the regular season on September 30 — I don’t see a scenario where the left-hander makes a second trip through this Diamondbacks lineup. Heaney was inconsistent at best during the regular season with a 4.55 xERA and a 4.66 FIP over 147.1 innings. The last time he tried to start a postseason contest, he faced just seven batters in the ALCS against the Astros, surrendering four hits and three earned runs. That’s likely why Texas had initially chosen Gray to start Game 4. There’s not a lot of trust here, which means an incredibly short leash.

THE OUTCOME

This is a difficult game to handicap. It’s going to be a jumble of bullpen arms and there’s the looming uncertainty of Adolis Garcia. With so much unknown, I think a lean to the underdog is the correct move — especially when said underdog has the ability to mash hone runs like the Rangers do. Texas takes a commanding 3-1 series lead on Tuesday before handing the ball off to Nathan Eovaldi for Game 5.

Final Score: Texas 5, Arizona 3

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st] (TEX vs ARI)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.