Only four games tonight. That makes me want to get on a flight to the land where Dwight is playing. You know what I’m saying? But no way I’d do that because it would take all night. That is not a plight that would be alright. Let’s be satisfied with what we have. Let’s all smile and show delight. It’s not like we are relegated to selecting players for a game of Fortnite. So good luck to all of you on this night. May one of you win a tournament outright.
DEN and LAC are playing the first leg of a back-to-back. MEM and ORL played last night.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, All games have a total of at least 225 with the BOS/DAL and UTA/HOU games at 230 and 232.5 respectively. The Jazz are the biggest favorites at 6.0 points over the Rockets while the BOS/DAL game has the tightest spread at 2.0 points. ORL, DAL and HOU are all home dogs.
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Guard
Studs
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics ($12,600) – For full disclosure, I have been fading the high-priced players on recent slates. You have been warned.
Doncic has had an MVP-esque season so far. Over the last six games, he’s been out of this world. The usage rate has been over 40% and he’s gone for 68, 85, 81, 110.8, 60.3 and 82 DKFP. Now he faces a Celtics team that is ninth in defensive rating, but they have boosted the FPPM to point guards by 10.31% above league average.
Kevin Porter Jr., Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz ($7,600) – Over the last five games, Porter has gone for over 40 DKFP four times with a high of 60.3. He garners a usage rate in the mid-20 percent range. These teams are 27th and 28th in defensive rating while being 12th and 17th in offensive pace, so there should be plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy goodies.
Other Options - Ja Morant ($10,400), Jalen Green ($6,600)
Value
Mike Conley, Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets ($5,700) – Conley missed 10 games due to injury and it’s taken some time to get back into the swing of things. Well, like Stella, it looks like he got his groove back. Over the last four games, he’s gone for 36.3, 24.5, 34, 23.5 and 41.3 DKFP. The Rockets have been one of the most generous teams for point guards, as they have boosted the FPPM by 16.93% above league average.
Other Options - Terance Mann ($4,100)
Forward
Studs
Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets ($9,000) – Over the past two weeks, Markkanen has garnered a usage rate of around 28% and averaged close to 30 points per game. He’s gone for at least 50 DKFP in four of seven games. The Rockets are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and there’s a good chance the heater continues.
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets ($8,100) – Drip. Drip. Drip. The Kawhi Leonard experience has been akin to Chinese water torture, but the bowl is slowly getting filled, and the fantasy goodies are beginning to overflow. He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of the last four games and gone for 38.8, 29.8, 42.5 and 44.3 DKFP. He truly is a machine. Now, Paul George ($8,800) is questionable for this one, so there’s a chance that he has to carry more of the offensive load in this one, and you know that the Nuggets are going to score points.
Other Options - Aaron Gordon ($6,900), Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,500)
Value
Marcus Morris, Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets ($4,700) – Morris has scored at least 10 points in 14 straight games. He’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in 10 straight with a high of 30. If George is out, he will move up the offensive totem pole. Denver has been tough against power forwards this season, and he went for only 17 DKFP in an earlier meeting against the Nuggets. Kawhi Leonard did not play in that one, though. His presence will open things up a bit for Morris.
Other Options - Norman Powell ($5,200) if Paul George is out, Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,100)
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers ($11,800) – I’ve been spoiled by Jokic over the years that I often get disappointed when he only scores around 50 DKFP. We are just so used to him putting up 60, 70 or 80 DKFP on a nightly basis. While he has gone for at least 80 DKFP four times this season, he’s also failed to score at least 50 DKFP nine times. That said, he’s still averaging 1.66 DKFP per minute and is a threat to triple-double on any given night.
This game has a respectable total of 225 with a spread of 4.5 points in favor of Denver. The Clippers have boosted the FPPM to centers by 2.76% above league average and Jokic went for 50.75 DKFP the last time these teams met.
Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic ($6,500) – Since returning to action 20 games ago, Jackson is averaging a ridiculous 3.2 blocks per game. Orlando has boosted the blocking prowess to centers by 27.54% above league average. 1+1=2. Jackson doesn’t just block shots, as he racks up steals, grabs rebounds and can score a bit too. His issue is foul trouble. Jackson averages 1.26 DKFP per minute and has gone for at least 30 DKFP in 12 games with six above 40 and a high of 52.
Value
Steven Adams, Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic ($5,700) – Adams averages a solid 1.08 DKFP per minute. He’s averaging 26.7 minutes per game and usually ends up in the high-20 DKFP range. Recently, he’s gone crazy with 17, 21 and 23 rebounds while scoring in double-digits in all of those contests and contributing defensive stats. It has translated into games of 42.25, 50.25 and 49.75 DKFP. That type of production shouldn’t be expected, especially since Orlando has been tough against centers this season. That said, a ceiling game is within the range of outcomes.
Other Options - Walker Kessler ($5,000)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.