The PGA TOUR continues its California swing this week with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Pebble Beach Golf Links will be the host, and we are back to both a three-course rotation and 54-hole cut this week. Golfers will each play one round at Pebble Beach, Monterey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill over the first three days, before returning to Pebble Beach for the final round.
All three courses sit between 6,816 and 7,035 yards, while Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill are both par 72s. Monterey Peninsula will play as a par 71. All three courses feature poa greens.
The field this week is headlined by Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth and Viktor Hovland.
Jordan Spieth ($10,600)
Spieth absolutely loves Pebble Beach and this event, as he’s played it each of the past 10 years. He’s got some of the best course history here that any golfer has at any course on the PGA TOUR. Since 2013, Spieth has not missed a single cut, while posting a win, five additional top-10 finishes and a pair of top 20s.
It’s not entirely surprising to see Spieth dominate here, considering how small the greens are at Pebble. Everyone is going to miss their fair share of greens in regulation, putting an emphasis on both short game and putting, which Spieth has done better than anyone over the years.
Another reason Spieth seemingly dominates here every year is due to the usual lack of field strength. This year is no different, as only three of the world’s top 20 players will be in attendance. Spieth did not play well at the Sony Open, but he did finish T13 at the Tournament of Champions and still rates out really well long-term over the rest of the field. The three-time major winner ranks No. 2 in SG: Tee-to-Green, seventh in SG: Ball-Striking and sixth in SG: Total over his past 48 rounds. Only Matt Fitzpatrick has been better from tee-to-green than Spieth in that time frame.
We have seen Spieth flip a proverbial switch when he gets to Pebble Beach every year, regardless of form, and I would expect nothing less this year. He makes for a great play in all formats.
Nick Taylor ($8,000)
Not quite to the extent of Spieth, but Taylor is also a former winner at Pebble Beach who boasts great course history as well. He’s made six of eight cuts here, including his win in 2020 and two additional top-15 finishes. Despite missing two of his past three cuts, Taylor had previously been playing some strong golf, which extended back to the Fall swing.
He finished T7 at the Sony Open three weeks ago and had a stretch in mid-September where he posted three top-25 finishes in four weeks, including a T6 at the Fortinet Championship.
Taylor’s rolling stats have been pretty steady in this time frame as well, ranking 19th in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, 16th in SG: Approach and 19th in SG: Total. His $8,000 salary is also quite reasonable for both his course history and recent form, and I will gladly go back to the well here.
Beau Hossler ($7,400)
Hossler was a massive disappointment last week at the Farmers, but we can chalk it up to an anomaly, as it was his usually steady putter that let him down. Dating back 48 rounds in this field, Hossler ranks seventh in SG: Putting, so as you can see, this is not something we should expect to continue. I am happy to go right back to him this week at a strong price of just $7,400, especially after he gained two strokes ball-striking in his lone round at the South Course at Torrey Pines last week.
Prior to last week, Hossler had made five of his previous six cuts, with three top-25 finishes in that stretch. He also has some good familiarity with Pebble Beach, having played here six times in his career, which has resulted in four made cuts and a T3 last season. There is plenty of upside here for the price, and we’re getting three guaranteed rounds from him no matter what, so hopefully he can turn his putting around.
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