Week 4’s Sunday Night Football contest features a Super Bowl LV rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Let’s look at this game from a DraftKings NFL Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Sunday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (KC vs TB)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Patrick Mahomes (CP $17,100)
This is a difficult matchup for Mahomes, but that is the story across the board for every player on this showdown slate. The tough matchup is bad news, but it’s not all bad news. The Buccaneers defense is perennially one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. This forces teams to pass. Tampa’s pass defense is no joke either, and it’s likely that Mahomes’ final stat line will not be efficient and borderline ugly. That doesn’t matter. If everyone is in a tough spot, then volume is king. Tampa should funnel Kansas City towards the pass, and that’s something that Kansas City already wants to do. The Chiefs were one of the most pass-heavy offenses last season, and this season they’re passing at a 67% rate. Lastly, tough matchups force Mahomes to carry the load. In blowouts, Mahomes is less likely to run and less likely to score rushing touchdowns. In tight games, he puts the team on his back, and his legs.
FLEX Plays
Cole Beasley ($4,800)
Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady ($10,000) will have their names on the marquee, but this game is all about the defenses. The Chiefs have a top-10 defense in every category that matters — eighth in Blitz%, third in Hurry%, fourth in QB Knockdown%, fifth in Sacks, second in Pressure% and first in DADOT (defensive average depth of target).
Why play Beasley against a stout D? The Chiefs have a weakness that can be exploited. They will concede short routes and they’re not very good at tackling (30th in missed tackles). That has led to 409 yards after the catch (25th). Beasley is the receiver that benefits the most from this situation. Even if Beasley does not break one, he could get there by chipping away at the Chiefs one weakness.
Travis Kelce ($10,800)
He will get his. That cannot be said for any other player on the field on Sunday night. Mike Evans ($9,400) is close, but no one has any idea what to expect from the Tampa passing attack. Who knows who will suit up? What will their roles be? Who will Brady target? The Bucs could try to lean on Fournette again. Kelce is the alpha in the Chiefs’ offense. There isn’t a team or a scheme in the NFL that can stop him. If Mahomes is the captain, or even rostered, then Kelce has to be handcuffed as the flex or as a captain.
Fades
Julio Jones ($6,600)
Play this game at your own risk. In GPPs there is some validity to playing Jones if he is going to be low owned. That being said, we’ve seen this story before. A younger Jones struggled in Atlanta when he battled injuries. When he was 100%, he was a threat. Even when he was a threat, he was not a threat in the red zone. Now, he’s flanked by an exceptional red zone receiver in Mike Evans. Touchdowns are necessary in showdown contests, and this does not look like a situation where Jones will find the end zone.
THE OUTCOME
This game will be held in Tampa after all. The city was spared severe hurricane damage, but the damage may have already been done. The Buccaneers were able to practice in Miami this week, but this is not an ideal situation and it’s reflected in the point spread — the Bucs are basically a pick ‘em at home. Still, Tampa’s defense looks good and Raymond James Stadium will be rocking post-hurricane. This might be one of the rowdiest crowds of the 2022-23 season. Defense and the home field advantage lead the way on Sunday night.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 23, Kansas City 21
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Sunday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (KC vs TB)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.