Mercury Morris is starting to apply Blistex on his lips because the Dolphins are making another run for history while the Raiders have bizarro Al Davis saying “Just Losing, Baby.” It’s only been three weeks, people! Many things can change, and the NFL landscape is constantly evolving. Before we go crowning or burying teams or players, let’s hold hands, close our eyes and chant “Woo saaaaa. Wooooo saaaaaa.”
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there is only one game with a total of at least 50 points — BUF/BAL (52) — while the SEA/DET is right below at 49.5. There are eight games with a total below 45, with the CHI/NYG game with the lowest mark at 38.5. There are no double-digit favorites, but GB is favored by 9.5 points over NE. There are eight games that are within a field goal — MIN -3 over NO, BUF -3 over BAL, DAL -3 over WAS, NYG -3 over CHI, CLE -1.5 over ATL, IND -3 over TEN, CAR -2 over ARI and LV -2.5 over DEN.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24416202/sportsbook.jpg)
Bet at the top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at the top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!
Quarterback
Stud
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $8,200 — The game of the week is Bills vs. Ravens and both of the quarterbacks will likely be highly owned as a result. It’s within the range of outcomes that game comes in under. Hurts has a similar floor/ceiling combo and could come in lower owned.
The Jaguars have been stingy on defense this season, ranking first in rush-defense DVOA and seventh in pass-defense DVOA. That said, while they completely demolished the Colts, they went up against a Chargers team with a banged up Justin Herbert and lost to the Commanders, allowing Carson Wentz to throw for 313 yards and four touchdowns.
The Eagles are one of the best offenses in the league with weapons galore. Hurts has gone for 24.72, 37.02 and 30.6 DKFP this season while rushing nine, 11 and 17 times, respectively. In the two most recent games, the Eagles dominated, winning 24-7 and 24-8, so Hurts is essentially game-script proof.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($8,400), Lamar Jackson ($8,300)
Value
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks, $5,900 — In three games this season, Goff has attempted 41, 34 and 37 passes while putting up 16.5, 26.04 and 14.88 DKFP, respectively. Not bad, but not great either. His Week 4 matchup is a juicy one, though.
Seattle is 31st in pass-defense DVOA, plays zone at the second-highest rate and blitzes at a bottom-third rate in the NFL. This game has a healthy total of 48, so sparks could fly, especially since the Lions defense could get cooked by Geno Smith. (I just vomited in my mouth.)
Other Options – Geno Smith ($5,400)
For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.
Running Back
Stud
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears, $8,000 — Barkley looks healthy and explosive, but more importantly, he is being utilized as the focal point of the offense. Through three games, he’s had at least a 83% snap rate in every game and currently leads all running backs in snaps played. He has received seven, four and four targets, so the floor is high, and he’s always in play to put up a 30-burger, like he did in Week 1.
Other Options – Christian McCaffrey ($8,700), Nick Chubb ($7,900)
Value
Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks, $6,100 – D’Andre Swift will likely be out for this game, so Williams should start and get the bulk of the work. Since becoming a Lion, Williams has started 11 games. He’s scored double-digit DKFP in three of those contests, with a high of 25. Last week, he carried the ball 20 times for 87 yards and two touchdowns. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities in this one.
Other Options – Devin Singletary ($5,900), Khalil Herbert ($5,700)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks, $7,700 — As mentioned in the Goff section, this game environment and matchup should be fantasy-friendly, especially for the Detroit passing game. St. Brown is a stud and the favorite target for Goff, receiving 12, 12 and nine targets, and we know those targets are earned. With the Seahawks playing zone at a high rate, St. Brown should have no problem getting open.
Other Options – Stefon Diggs ($8,400), Davante Adams ($8,300), A.J. Brown ($7,400), Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,200)
Value
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets, $3,800 – Mitch Trubisky stinks. I get it, but he has attempted 38, 33 and 32 passes this season. Pickens is a physical specimen at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds. He runs a 4.47 40 and is an excellent contested catch maven. There are multiple reasons why the Steelers selected him the second round of the NFL draft.
Pickens has an aDOT of 17.6, which is fifth-best among wide receivers, and the Jets are 32nd in pass-defense DVOA. Pickens has played at least 70% of the snaps in every game and garnered three, three and seven targets.
Other Options – Romeo Doubs ($4,500), Greg Dortch ($5,000)
Tight End
Stud
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills, $7,100 – There aren’t many options up top at the tight end position this week. Andrews is the creme de la creme at the position and has received seven, 11 and 13 targets so far this season. This game has the highest total on the slate.
That said, ownership will likely be sky-high due to recency bias of the two touchdowns last week and the game environment. I see many paths to this game not living up to the hype, though, so I am considering paying down at the position this week. We shall see how projected ownership and roster construction shapes out.
Value
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, $4,700 – Sorry, Julie, but Zach isn’t sexy — at least for fantasy. The upside is limited because he likely won’t ever crack 100 yards receiving. That said, he has received 11 and 10 targets over the last two games, with three red zone looks in each of those contests.
Other Options – David Njoku ($3,700)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Steelers DST vs. New York Jets, $3,600 – Welcome back, Zach!
Other Options – Cowboys DST ($3,500), Giants DST ($3,100), Bills DST ($3,200)
Value
Titans DST at Indianapolis Colts, $2,500 – Matt Ryan has been sacked 12 times this season, the fourth-most in the NFL. The Titans are 15th in adjusted sack rate, and they know this Colts offense very well. Some sacks and a pick-six are well within the range of outcomes.
Other Option – Panthers DST ($2,900)
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.