Week 3’s Sunday Night Football contest features a game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Denver Broncos.
Let’s look at this game from a DraftKings NFL Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (SF vs DEN)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Deebo Samuel (CP $17,100)
The Broncos' rush defense has been good, but they haven’t faced a team like the 49ers. Yes, I’m talking about run defenses when featuring a Wide Receiver. Samuel should be featured heavily (for a WR) in the run game and should get close to seven or eight rush attempts this week with Jeff Wilson Jr. (CP $12,000) as the only running back that’s healthy and familiar with the offense other than Samuel. The Broncos' defense allowed Rashaad Penny and Dameon Pierce to average around five yards per carry over the first couple of weeks.
FLEX Plays
Javonte Williams ($10,000)
He out-snapped Melvin Gordon ($6,200) 65% to 32% last week and ran twice as many routes (54%) - hopefully, this is a sign that Nathaniel Hackett is moving towards a Williams-led backfield with Gordon spelling him from time to time. He also ran in 16 times to Gordon’s 11, but even if it’s back to a 50-50 split, Williams’ efficiency as a runner is top-notch, averaging close to a yard higher than the league average in yards after contact (3.96). We should also consider Jeff Wilson Jr. on Sunday evening. As mentioned earlier, the Broncos are giving up 4.7 yards per carry to opposing RBs, and he’s all they got in that backfield who’s a) healthy and b) knows the Shanahan system.
Courtland Sutton ($9,400)
Sutton’s target share went sky-high when Jerry Jeudy ($8,200) left last week’s game with an injury. 41% of targets and 50% of the air yards went no. 10s way, and if Jeudy is out, Sutton can have a big day. He’s also getting targeted 40% of the time in the endzone, the highest by a wide margin among Denver’s pass catchers.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy (ribs) and WR K.J. Hamler (knee, hip, groin) will be active tonight vs. the 49ers.
Fades
Albert Okwuegbunam ($5,200)
The talent is there, but the production is not. Okwuegbunam ran a respectable amount of routes (74%) against the Seahawks in Week 1, but that dropped by nearly 20% in Week 2. The 49ers have LBs who can cover, and it looks like the Broncos are keen on rotating three TEs on offense, leaving Albert O with an average of 66.5% offensive snaps over the first two weeks.
THE OUTCOME
We shouldn’t be surprised if this is a slow, low-scoring affair between two teams who thought they’d be in a different position in Week 3. The Broncos’ offense has been uninspiring at times, Russell Wilson (CP $16,200, $10,800) isn’t pushing the ball downfield and both teams are already banged-up this early in the season. The Broncos are down their defensive stud Justin Simmons, and Patrick Surtain II wasn’t practicing earlier this week. The Broncos will face their toughest test on defense, and Kyle Shanahan’s scheme will be too much for Nathaniel Hackett and company.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II will be active tonight vs. the 49ers.
Final Score: San Francisco 49ers 23, Denver Broncos 13
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (SF vs DEN)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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