The Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans met in Week 6 last season and Derrick Henry rumbled for 143 yards and three touchdowns as Tennessee defeated Buffalo at home by the count of 34-31. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that things will turn out a little differently this time. For starters, this game will be in Buffalo with the Bills favored by 10 points. The Bills are well-rested, having played on Thursday night in Week 1, and coming off a 31-10 beatdown of the Super Bowl champs from last season. The Titans lost 21-20 to the Giants in Week 1 and no longer have AJ Brown in the mix.
Let’s break it all down.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $200K Showdown Special [$50K to 1st] (TEN vs BUF)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Josh Allen ($18,900 CP) - He’s expensive and the ownership will likely be sky-high, so there’s always merit to fading him. That said, he is so heavily involved in the offense that the floor/ceiling combo is the best on the slate. Translation: you get what you pay for, which is a rarity in this economy. He threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns while rushing 10 times for 56 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Rams. Against the Titans in 2021, he threw 47 times for 353 yards and three touchdowns while rushing nine times for 26 yards. Last season, Allen went for at least 30 DKFP seven times with four of those over 40.
Derrick Henry ($16,500 CP) - If the Titans are competitive, then that means that Henry is having a big game because it’s highly unlikely they are getting busy through the air. The Bills were first in pass-defense DVOA last season and limited Matthew Stafford to 240 yards and three interceptions in Week 1. AJ Brown is no longer on the Titans depth chart while rookie Treylon Burks ($6,200) has essentially replaced him. That said, the ownership level should be depressed as a result and Henry does have an unbelievably high ceiling when he hits. He went for over 30 DKFP in three of seven games he played last season with a high of 50.7.
FLEX Plays
Stefon Diggs ($11,400) - Diggs is the alpha of the receiving group and the apple of Allen’s eye. Say that fast three times. He led the team in targets last week and caught nine of 11 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown in the matchup with the Titans last season. Gabe Davis ($8,800) is questionable, which could filter more targets towards Diggs.
Bills D/ST ($4,600) - There’s a chance that this game gets ugly. The Titans have a bottom-third offensive line and will likely be chasing points in this one. The Bills sacked Matthew Stafford seven times last week and picked him off three times. The Titans passing attack is predicated off play-action. If they have to just drop back and throw, there could be plenty of opportunities for sacks and turnovers.
Khalil Shakir ($200) - Shakir did not play in Week 1 but could make his NFL debut and see elevated snaps if Gabe Davis is out. Shakir impressed over the summer, is versatile, able to play in the slot or outside, and handle carries out of the backfield. At $200, the risk/reward ratio is very favorable.
Fades
Treylon Burks ($6,200) - Burks is a rookie and going up against one of the best pass defenses in the league. In addition, he only played 37% of the snaps in Week 1. He’s priced only $400 below Robert Woods ($6,600), who saw close to double the snaps in Week 1 of Burks. Granted, he did get five targets to two for Woods, but that was against a Giants secondary that was 14th in pass-defense DVOA last season. The Bills were numero uno.
THE OUTCOME
For most of the Showdown island slates this season, going contrarian has been profitable. I’m not feeling it for this one. A Bills onslaught looks to be the way.
Final Score: Buffalo 41, Tennessee 13
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $200K Showdown Special [$50K to 1st] (TEN vs BUF)
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