Here are my favorite DraftKings plays for Monday’s MLB main slate.
For additional picks across all MLB games, find me on Twitter @Nick_Friar.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers ($10,700) – I generally try to pivot off the highest-priced pitcher on the slate, but this is one of those rare instances where you shouldn’t. Valdez isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but he has posted an average of one strikeout per inning in four of his last five starts. He’s also going deep into games, with his recent 6 2/3-inning outing being his shortest in almost exactly 30 days — and in this outing, he punched out 11.
The Tigers only have a 21% strikeout rate against lefties since mid-August, but Valdez has been making easy work recently of opponents who are even less strikeout-happy. Also, Detroit only has a .141 ISO against lefties during that span, and both their K rate and ISO lean more toward left-handers’ favor when focusing on Detroit’s recent home games.
Other Option - Spencer Strider ($10,100)
Value
Mike Minor, Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ($7,300) – Minor’s price tag has increased quite a bit since he last saw this Pittsburgh lineup. He has since turned a corner — or at least managed to take advantage of favorable matchups. He’s got another one of those Monday vs. the Pirates, who have a 24.1% strikeout rate and .124 ISO against lefties since August 15.
Other Option - Ryne Nelson ($6,200)
INFIELD
Stud
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ($4,300) – Marte hasn’t seen many lefties of late, but one thing he’s done across his last 56 at-bats against them is make sound contact. He has a 35.7% hard-contact rate and 57.1% fly-ball rate during that span, which led to a .283 ISO. While Tyler Anderson ($8,300) has limited damage from right-handed hitters in his last five starts, they’ve been elevating the ball a lot (44.2%). Also, Marte is 10-for-23 with five doubles and two home runs in his career against Anderson.
Stud
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants ($5,700) – Last time Riley broke a homerless streak, like he did Sunday, he went off over the next three games. That stretch wasn’t all that long ago, either. Riley continues to provide Atlanta with consistent offense night-to-night. While left-handed pitching is his preferred matchup, he has a .213 ISO against righties since mid-August.
Value
Kyle Farmer, Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates ($4,000) – Farmer had a quiet end to the Milwaukee series after initially carrying over his strong play from Cincy’s latest series vs. the Cubs. Across his last 102 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Farmer has shown bits of power while hitting .316. Taking advantage of mistakes is all Farmer needs to keep doing with Bryse Wilson ($5,700) on the mound for Pittsburgh. In his last five starts, righties have a .379 wOBA and 29.7% line-drive rate against him.
Value
Jonah Heim, Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins ($3,500) – Between some bad weather and poor matchups, Monday seems like one of the easier days to lean toward saving at catcher. Heim hasn’t had a whole lot of luck lately against lefties, but he’s still getting the ball airborne frequently (54.5% fly-ball rate) while making a solid amount of hard contact (31.8%). That should certainly lead to more than a .182 BABIP. Braxton Garrett ($7,100) can help improve that number in his return from the IL. In the five starts before his injury, right-handed hitters had a 24.6% line-drive rate.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants ($4,600) – Harris is coming off a very strong series in Seattle, and he’s logged multiple hits in six of his last eight games. With Alex Cobb ($8,000) on the mound, Harris has his preferred matchup. He’s managed to post a .300 ISO against righties in 248 plate appearances this season. Since mid-August, Harris’ ISO against righties has been .387.
Stud
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers ($5,500) – It took a second, but Alvarez appears to be back on track again, having laced an extra-base hit in each game of Houston’s latest series vs. the Angels. He obviously prefers right-handed pitchers, but he still has a whopping .259 ISO against lefties this year. Also, Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,600) has not been good against left-handed hitters in 2022. In his last four starts, they’ve posted a 27.3% line-drive rate and 45.5% hard-contact rate against him.
Value
Trey Mancini, Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers ($3,900) – Although the results haven’t been there against lefties since Houston acquired Mancini at the deadline, he’s still making a lot of good contact. Since leaving Baltimore, he has a 29.2% line-drive rate and 37.5% hard-contact rate against lefties. He has a chance to make some more quality contact against another lefty on Monday — one that he’s seen 45 times and posted a .293 average against, with two home runs and three doubles.
Value
Stone Garrett, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,600) – You’ll have to double check on Garrett’s lineup stats before the game, but he provides a nice mix of savings combined with the ability to pop off. In his limited opportunities against left-handed pitching in the bigs, Garrett has a .313 ISO. That obviously can’t maintain forever, but Anderson has been giving up a lot of fly balls to right-handed hitters lately.
Other Option - Jake Fraley ($3,000)
TEAM TO STACK
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – While Houston stands out as a stack with a lot of pop on Monday, Arizona can help save a bit of money while providing potential.
The Diamondbacks generally prefer right-handed pitchers, but Marte and Garrett have both been smoking left-handers. Christian Walker ($4,500) hasn’t been hitting for a whole lot of power against lefties of late, but he’s still put together a 50% line-drive rate against them since the start of August. Carson Kelly ($3,900) has been getting the ball airborne a lot against lefties, and Anderson has given up quite a few fly balls to righties of late — which is the big reason Arizona’s right-handed bats make for an appealing value stack. Emmanuel Rivera ($3,300) is also worth considering if you want to save at third base — he hasn’t had good results against lefties recently, but he’s getting the ball airborne and has a .218 ISO against them.
Other Options - Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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