The city of Memphis, Tennessee, has held a PGA TOUR event since 1958, but this year will be the first time it will host a FedExCup Playoff event, the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. The course will play as a par 70 measuring 7,243 yards and be putt on Champion Bermuda greens again this week.
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STRATEGY
TPC Southwind is quite hefty for a par 70. With only two par 5s, a lot of the distance comes from seven par 4s, which measure over 450 yards; the par 4, 17th hole sits at 505 yards. Par 4 scoring overall with a concentration in par 4 efficiency from 450 to 500 yards should be prerequisites to success this week. Also, according to the GCSAA website, the area has seen one of the hottest Julys on record, with more than 11 days over 100 degrees, and has been in an extreme drought with June and July down five inches of rain.
The fairways are tight, but being inaccurate with the driver isn’t going to be as penal as other tracks with similar compositions. There are 75 sand bunkers and a plethora of water hazards that come into play on 11 holes. Gaining strokes through approach is always important, especially this week with some of the smallest greens on TOUR, averaging 4,300 sq. feet. In 2020, Justin Thomas ($10,200) was second in approach and Abraham Ancer was fifth in the field gaining with his irons last season. A stat that should be more critical than approach and something we need to consider in our daily fantasy lineups this week is Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. All winners over the past six years finished inside the top 6, and four finished first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green the year they won.
Roster construction should involve golfers who’ve played well in similar circumstances, like the majors or second-tier tournaments like The Memorial, Genesis Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship. As mentioned earlier, this is the first year the tournament hosts a FedExCup playoff event. Even though it’s far from a major in legacy, it still has similar sentiment as the first leg of the playoffs.
Will Zalatoris ($9,500)
Even though he’ll be sporting a new caddie this week, Zalatoris has a similar build to golfers who’ve done well in previous years. Ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the past 24 rounds and gaining an average of 3.4 strokes with his irons over the previous five tournaments are good signs his game is where it needs to be this week. Zalatoris showed his ability to bounce back from a horrific opening round last week in Greensboro and finished 21st. He’s been runner-up in three majors in his short career on the PGA TOUR, so it’s a matter of when, not if, he wins. Sam Burns ($8,600) should also be a consideration in this range given how well he’s played this season on similar courses. Finishes of ninth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 26th at THE PLAYERS — where he was T2 heading into the final round — and a victory at the Valspar Championship should have him feeling confident this week. Burns also ranks 10th in par 4 efficiency on holes between 450 to 500 yards and 16th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the previous 24 rounds.
Mito Pereira ($7,500)
One of the better daily fantasy golf sleepers to consider this week is the young Chilean, who is coming into this week with four-straight missed cuts. TPC Southwind should play similar to Florida Swing events, and Pereira finished 30th at The Honda Classic, missed the cut at THE PLAYERS (but gained 1.8 strokes tee to green) and 27th at the Valspar Championship this season. Even though he’s missed the weekend in his last four starts, he still ranks 12th off the tee, 11th in approach and sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his past 24 rounds. He also ranks inside the top 25 over the previous 12 rounds putting on Bermuda.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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