The second-to-last FedExCup playoff event heads to Wilmington, Delaware, for the BMW Championship held at Wilmington Country Club this week. The course will play as a par 71, measuring 7,534 yards and will be putt on bentgrass greens.
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STRATEGY
This week will be the first time Wilmington Country Club will host a PGA TOUR event, and with it will be a new experience for the fans, the State of Delaware and the players. The field is cut down to the top 70 in the points and eligibility list and is a no-cut event. Unfortunately, Cameron Smith has withdrawn from the tournament with a hip injury, making the field less than the eligible 70 golfers.
This week, the rough should be one of the primary defenses, measuring four inches thick. Sitting over 7,500 yards, the course is long on the scorecard, with three par 4s measuring over 490 yards, three of four par 3s over 200 yards and two of the par 5s measuring over 634 yards. Long iron efficiency could play a factor along with lag putting; the greens measure 8,100 sq. feet on average. Also, consider three-putt avoidance and par 4 efficiency on holes 450 to 500 yards when determining which golfers you want in your daily fantasy lineups. Still, this could be a course where we see most shots coming in from 125 to 175 yards. The holes that aren’t mentioned above are relatively straightforward, and the pros will most likely hit driver-wedge into these greens. There are also 91 bunkers throughout this course, forcing players to play position golf and elect to hit their scoring irons rather than risk the potential big number.
With only 70 golfers left in the season and no cut this week or next, it’s imperative to roster golfers who have shown the ability to perform in similar situations. WGCs, the Olympics, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the TOUR Championship are some courses with similar formats. They should provide insight into who could play well this week. The top 5 (in descending order) in Strokes Gained: Total in no-cut events over the previous 24 rounds are: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,200), Justin Thomas ($10,100), Jon Rahm ($10,300), Rory McIlroy ($10,500) and Patrick Cantlay ($9,900).
Justin Thomas ($10,100)
Thomas fits the profile of someone who we’ve seen play well at this stage in the playoffs, with a 13th-place finish last week and most of his wins coming in no-cut events throughout his career. Over the previous 24 rounds in no-cut events, Thomas ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Total and first in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green. He also finished third in the field last week in tee to green. Wilmington CC has hosted multiple U.S. Amateur tournaments, including the 2013 Palmer Cup that Thomas was a part of for the American team. He’s also a past BMW Champion (2019) at Medinah CC, checking off many of the proverbial boxes this week.
Joaquin Niemann ($8,600)
There are many places to go in this range, but Niemann’s ability off the tee, his putting on bentgrass and his performance in no-cut events make him a cut above the rest. A runner-up (2021) and top-5 (2020) finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, sixth (2020) at the CJ Cup and a 10th in the 2020 Summer Olympics are solid finishes to go along with his strong ball-striking performance last week, gaining 5.85 with his irons and 1.41 off the tee. Niemann prefers bentgrass greens and finished third in this event (different course) in 2020. Cameron Young ($8,900) should be a popular pick this week, and rightfully so with how well he’s playing and sets up here. Still, I’d consider him in the betting market rather than daily fantasy golf if his projected roster percentage gets too high, making Niemann a potential daily fantasy golf sleeper this week if he goes under-rostered. No one is considered a sleeper this week, but Niemann could be someone that goes under-rostered.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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