The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1.2M Flop Shot [$300K to 1st]
The Field
This week, the field has been pared down again, as only the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup Playoffs have advanced. Notable players who WILL NOT play this week include Gary Woodland, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Cam Smith. After the BMW Championship is complete, the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings will be allowed to tee it up one more time in two weeks at East Lake for a chance at some serious cash. As of now the top five in the FedEx Cup standings are: Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler, Smith, Tony Finau and Sam Burns.
The seeding going into the last leg of the playoffs is very important given the new structure of the event, where top players start at better scores than those beneath them. Expect to see a lot of jockeying for position on the weekend in what is always a fun and exciting final round. The 70-man field this week makes this a no-cut event, so all six golfers you play here will get in four rounds, as long as they’re not disqualified or withdraw.
The Course
Wilmington Country Club — Wilmington Delaware
Par 71, 7,534 yards
After visiting a new course in Caves Valley last year, the BMW Championship will again be at a venue that is making its debut on the PGA TOUR. Wilmington Country Club is a Robert Trent Jones-designed golf course that’s set to play as a long Par 71 at well over 7,500 yards. The venue looks like a classic Trent Jones-designed venue, with longer drawn out holes, big elevated greens and several par 4s that should put an emphasis on strong off-the-tee play. It’s quite a change in scenery from Memphis, will feature bentgrass greens instead of Bermuda and should favor solid drivers of the golf ball.
As for setup, there are three par 5s on the course, but two will play at well over 600 yards. Outside of the shorter par 5, players won’t have many obvious birdie holes, although there will be a couple of easier par 4s that play under 400 yards in length. Judging by the setup, a great comparable venue will likely end up being the South course at Firestone Country Club, a venue that Trent Jones helped redesign back in the 1960’s. Firestone set up as one of the toughest driving tests on the PGA TOUR, with some extremely low driving-accuracy numbers but also higher driving-distance numbers.
Wilmington will likely be the same, as those who lay up off the tee will be forced into longer iron approaches onto what will likely be very dried out greens because of the heat. Strokes gained off the tee specialists can be given a nice bump this week, and for proximity stats, looking at longer ranges (175+) is likely a good idea. A lot will depend on setup and how fast they allow the greens to get, but with lots of roll and higher rough expected, expect higher scoring than last week with the possibility that we see a single-digits-under-par winner.
2022 weather outlook: The condensed field this week means we don't have to worry a ton about the weather for our classic lineup builds. Still, for things like first-round-leader betting and your showdown lineups on DraftKings, it can still be important. There’s not a ton of wind in store for the week, but it is worth mentioning that Friday looks like it will be much hotter in the afternoon than on Thursday. Emphasizing morning players on Friday is likely the way to go before the greens get too crusty.
Last Five Winners**
2021—Patrick Cantlay -27 (over Bryson DeChambeau playoff)
2020—Jon Rahm -4 (over Dustin Johnson playoff)
2019—Justin Thomas -25 (over Patrick Cantlay -22)
2018—Keegan Bradley -20 (over Justin Rose playoff)
2017—Marc Leishman -23 (over Rickie Fowler -18)
**This year will be the first time this event is played at Wilmington Country Club.
Winning Trends
- The past 10 winners of the BMW Championship have all had at least one top-12 finish in their last four starts on the PGA TOUR.
- None of the past 12 winners of the BMW Championship had missed the cut in their previous start.
- Of the last seven winners, only one finished worse than T12 in the FedEx St. Jude Championship (the first FedEx Cup playoff event) the week prior (Keegan Bradley T49 in 2018).
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2021 Winner (played at Caves Valley): Patrick Cantlay 27-under-par
Lead-in form (T11-T23-MC-T13-T15)
SG: OTT— +1.2
SG: APP— +1.2
SG: TTG— +1.2
SG: ATG— -1.1
SG: PUTT— +14.6
- As you can see by Cantlay’s lead-in form, he was in stellar condition heading into this playoff event. Not only had he won a couple months earlier, but he also posted a top 20 at the PGA Championship.
- Like many of the recent winners, Cantlay not only performed well at the most recent major, but also at the first playoff event (T6).
- Cantlay’s stats don’t have any crossover to this season given the course change, but his overall form is worth mentioning. The last three winners of the BMW Championship all went off at 25-1 or shorter in the betting odds.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value comparative to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Max Homa +3500 and $8,500
Comparables:
- Joaquin Niemann +4000 and $8,600
- Shane Lowry +4000 and $8,700
- Jordan Spieth +4000 and $8,800
Keith Mitchell +6500 and $7,400
Comparables:
- Davis Riley +7000 and $7,500
- Russell Henley +7000 and $7,800
- Cam Davis +6500 and $7,600
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
- Will Zalatoris ($10,000; win - T21): Zalatoris broke through last week for his first career win. He gained 7.7 strokes on approach alone and showed confidence down the stretch with his putter. He has four finishes of T5 or better in his last nine starts and will be a force in the last two playoff events.
- Tony Finau ($9,700; win - T5): Finau cooled off last week, but only a bit. His T5 finishes last week saw him gain 4.0 strokes putting, the second event in a row he’s accomplished that feat. The longer Wilmington CC should appeal to him.
- Sungjae Im ($9,100; T12-T2): Im rallied back from a poor start last week to post a T12 and secure some good playoff positioning going into this week. He’s been gaining massive strokes off the tee of late and gained over 4.0 strokes against the field OTT in Memphis alone.
- Brian Harman ($7,700; T3-T71-T6): Harman looked like he might get himself into the playoff in Memphis, but he fell just short after a late bogey killed his rally. He has three top-10 finishes in his last five starts and gained over 5.0 strokes on approach last week alone.
- Trey Mullinax ($6,200; T5-T37): Mullinax put forth a solid effort on Sunday as he went off with Zalatoris in the second-to-last group. A winner in Kentucky last month, Mullinax was one of the best in the field with his irons last week and now sets up inside the top 30 in the FedEx Cup point standings going into this week.
DraftKings DFS Strategy
Cash Games: Sungjae and Morikawa perfect for balanced builds
It’s been a down year for Collin Morikawa ($9,400) by his lofty standards, but the two-time major winner showed up last week and got himself into the FedEx Cup conversation with a T5 finish in Memphis. Morikawa was third in driving accuracy on the tighter TPC Southwind and gained over 4.0 strokes on approach on the weekend alone. He sets up as a great upper-tier value to build around. As does Sungjae Im ($9,100), who looked like he might miss the cut on Friday but rallied for 7-under par 63 on Saturday and T12 finish. Both look poised to make some noise this week and set up as great cash game plays given their recent form and affordable price tags. Other potential GPP targets this week include Joaquin Niemann ($8,600), Keith Mitchell ($7,400) and Trey Mullinax ($6,200).
Tournaments: Rahm and Thomas poised to make noise
One big trend we have always seen in the FedEx Cup playoffs is players who start off solidly in the first event then take it to the next level the week following. Both Justin Thomas ($10,100) and Jon Rahm ($10,300) had their best showing in quite some time last week in Memphis and will surely be happy to build off that momentum this week in Wilmington. I spoke about Rahm below, but Thomas is also a former winner of the BMW Championship (2019) and would have been in contention last week if not for a poor Saturday 71 that knocked him down the leaderboard. Mito Pereira ($7,100), Emiliano Grillo ($6,600) and Brendan Steele ($6,200) are all players you can look to in big field GPPs here as pivot plays for your DFS lineups.
MY PICK: Jon Rahm ($10,300)
Most people didn't care much for Rahm last week, so the fact he was able to claw his way into a T5 position on the weekend should raise some eyebrows for the second playoff start. He was his usual dominate self off the tee in Memphis, gaining 4.4 strokes there, but his putter was only neutral for the week in an event where most winners gain multiple strokes on the greens. The tables turn in Rahm’s favor somewhat in Wilmington, though. The greens will be bentgrass (more his preference), and the venue is a more expansive par 71, where the driver is likely to be a key club on many holes.
From a DFS and betting perspective, we’re still getting somewhat of a Rahm discount this week. His $10.3k salary makes him just the second-most expensive player on DraftKings (third before Cam Smith withdrew). Now a couple weeks removed from the birth of his second child — and likely in the mood to make up for what has been, by his standards, an unforgettable season — Rahm feels like a great target this week for your DFS and betting investments.
MY SLEEPER: Mito Pereira ($7,100)
Lost in the limelight of last week's thriller was the fact we finally saw Pereira return to form. It’s easy to forget, but Pereira nearly became the golden boy of the PGA TOUR back in May when he stepped onto the final hole of the PGA Championship with a one-shot lead. He doubled the hole, lost his shot at glory and proceeded to slump into the summer. He broke a four-event MC streak last week, though (T42), and with him sitting 41st in the FedEx Cup standings, he’ll need a big week in Wilmington to make it to East Lake.
Much like last year’s winner, Pereira is a special kind of talent who bears jumping on when sentiment is low. He gained well over 3.0 strokes on approach for the week at TPC Southwind (16th in the field) and hit 25 of 36 greens on the weekend in what were tougher conditions. Pereira would have finished much higher if not for an inconsistent putter, but the change in greens should also benefit him somewhat, as his last three top-six finishes (including the PGA at Southern Hills) came on bentgrass or Poa Annua greens. At just $7.1k in price, and in need of a big week, targeting Pereira big field GPPs and in the top-10 market on DraftKings Sportsbooks (+550) are both solid moves for the second playoff event of the year.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1.2M Flop Shot [$300K to 1st]
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