Three games on tap, so open up the DK app and first peruse the injury recap. Then read my suggestions to navigate today’s DFS map and select the correct number of chaps, making sure there are no mishaps. After that, it’s a wrap.
DET and LAL are playing the first leg of a back-to-back while MIA and DAL played last night.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Cavaliers favored by five points over the Lakers with the total at 225.5. The Heat are favored by 8.5 points over the Pistons with the total at 220. In the nightcap, the Nuggets are favored by five points over the Mavericks with the total at 223. All home teams are favored tonight.
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons ($7,200) – Luka Doncic is $13K! I don’t think I can get there on today’s slate but it will depend on what value shows up later and projected ownership. As of now, I’ll pay down. That said, that could be a common path most take, so keep that in mind when constructing rosters.
Herro has exceeded points expectations 60% of the time this season. Over the last two games with Jimmy Butler ($8,600) playing, Herro has garnered a 27% usage rate and played close to 40 minutes in each contest. He went for 50.75 and 43.25 DKFP.
The Pistons are 29th in defensive rating and have boosted the FPPM to shooting guards by 13.38% above league average, with a 10.32% boost in 3-pointers.
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets ($13,000) – As mentioned in the Herro blurb, Doncic is expensive and it may be tough to click on his button tonight. That said, he averages a whopping 1.73 FP/Min, garners a usage rate near 40% and is always in play for an 80-burger, something he’s done three times this season. In two prior games against Denver this season, Doncic has gone for 71 and 46.25 DKFP.
Other Options - Darius Garland ($8,200)
Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets ($4,400) – Over the last two games, Hardaway Jr. has only played 23 and 28 minutes. That was due to the Mavericks blowing out the Suns and Knicks by 19 and 21 points respectively. He went for 43.75 DKFP in one of those contests. In the two games before that stretch, he played 40 and 32 minutes, putting up 44.25 and 32.5 DKFP. The role and playing time look to be stable after fluctuating for much of the early season. As long as he’s on the floor, he will get plenty of opportunities playing alongside Doncic. He’s attempted 12, 17, 20 and 16 shots over the last four games.
Other Options - Cory Joseph ($3,000)
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers ($10,400) – Anthony Davis ($11,200) has been playing at an MVP level and getting all the attention recently. This LeBron James guy, though, has still been pretty, pretty good. He’s playing in the mid-30s while garnering a usage rate in the mid-30s as well. He’s a threat to triple-double on any given night and he’s scored fewer than 40 DKFP only once this season, with seven games above 50 and four over 60. Oh, and the prodigal son returns to Cleveland. Narrative street!
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Lakers ($7,600) – I’m not crazy about Mobley tonight but there are some things that entice me. For starters, he will likely be matched up against Anthony Davis since Jarrett Allen ($6,300) is questionable. Usually, Mobley feasts, especially in the defensive stats when playing center, but Anthony Davis changes that calculus.
Now for the good. Allen is questionable so he could be matched up against LeBron James, which would make the matchup much, much better. In addition, the Lakers play at the fastest pace in the league, so there should be plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy goodies.
Haywood Highsmith, Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons ($3,400) – Highsmith became a significant part of the rotation nine games ago. He started one of those contests and averaged 28.1 minutes, 6.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1 steal, 0.7 blocks and 1.2 3-pointers. He went over 30 DKFP twice and finished with double-digit DKFP in all but one game. He essentially knocked Duncan Robinson out of the rotation. Highsmith only played 14 minutes on Monday but Erik Spoelstra ran his starters out a ton because Memphis was leading most of that game. The Heat play the Pistons tonight so Highsmith could see playing time somewhere in the mid-20s.
Other Options - Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,400)
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks ($11,400) – Jokic hasn’t been the Jokic of past seasons, only exceeding points expectations 40% of the time this season. That said, he’s still Jokic and is a threat to triple-double and go for 80 DKFP on any given night. Just know that the range of outcomes is wider with Jokic this season and the ceiling outcomes are not as frequent. He did not play in the two games against Dallas this season.
Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers ($11,200) – Out of Doncic, Jokic and Davis, AD has the lowest projected ownership. I get it. Cleveland plays at the slowest pace in the league and is second in defensive rating. The Cavs may be without Jarrett Allen, though.
Even if Allen plays, though, it’s tough to fade Davis. He’s exceeded points expectations 90% of the time this season. He’s scored at least 49 DKFP in 10 straight with four games over 70 and two 80-burgers during that stretch. He’s gone for 44 and 55 points in the last two games. If the SATs taught me anything, it’s that he’s dropping 66 points tonight! I kid, but as long as Davis is healthy, he’s going to put up points regardless of matchup due to his ability to stuff the stat sheet.
Other Options - Bam Adebayo ($8,000), Evan Mobley ($7,600)
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Lakers ($5,100) – I’m not enamored with many of the cheaper options at center today so Love it is, even though I know that Love often hurts. Love likely won’t play more than 22 to 24 minutes but he will grab rebounds and could post a ceiling game if he gets hot from downtown. He does have 42, 44 and 51 DKFP games on the ledger this season. This is a pace-up spot for the Cavaliers and he could get matched up against LeBron, who is no maven on defense.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.