Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 16

10 games on a Saturday, which happens to be Christmas Eve. A time to reflect if you believe, but all we care about are defenses that are sieves and quarterbacks that heave so many touchdowns that they become a search query on Ask Jeeves, making opponents clutch their heads, kneel down and grieve. So, roll up those sleeves, read the tea leaves and weave a lineup of extraordinary magnitude so you achieve greatness and become as rich as Keanu Reeves.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, there are two games with a total of at least 45 points: SEA/KC (48.5) and NYG/MIN (48). Four games have a total at 40 or below: HOU/TEN (37), NO/CLE (32), ATL/BAL (37.5) and WAS/SF (39). There are no double-digit favorites but BUF is -9 over CHI while KC is -9.5 over SEA. Two games are within a field goal: DET -3 over CAR and CLE -2.5 over NO. The Bears, Panthers and Patriots are home dogs.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.

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Quarterback

Stud

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks, $8,400 — Mahomes is good and you should play him. End of analysis.

Fine, Mahomes is really, really good. Good?

FINE. The Chiefs pass at the fifth-highest rate and Mahomes has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time this season. Since Week 3, he’s scored at least 30 DKFP six times and the low was 19.82 over that span.

This game has the highest total on the slate at 48.5 as the Seahawks have the weapons on offense to force Kansas City to maintain aggression. Unfortunately for Seattle, they are 19th in pass defense DVOA.

Other Options – Josh Allen ($8,500), Justin Fields ($7,500), Kirk Cousins ($6,300)

Value

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs, $5,800 — The probability of me devouring a pie left on the counter is 100%. It is more likely that the Chiefs put up points on the Seahawks defense on Saturday than me eating leftover pie.

Smith has exceeded points expectations 70% of the time as well. While he will likely end up in the 20 DKFP range, he did go for 34.7 DKFP in Week 4 against the Lions, in a game that finished at 48-45.

The Chiefs are 25th in pass defense DVOA and they will likely have to tilt toward the air in this one. Not all is sunshine and unicorns, though, as the Chiefs are fifth in adjusted sack rate while the Seahawks are only 25th in protecting the quarterback. And the game is in Arrowhead Stadium.

That said, the Seahawks have bonafide offensive weapons and Smith has only thrown eight interceptions on the season. Seattle will likely have to be aggressive in this one and the Chiefs have allowed touchdowns on 68.75% of red zone chances, the second-highest in the NFL.

Other Options – Daniel Jones ($5,600)

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Running Back

Stud

Derrick Henry ($8,600), Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans — Henry is very expensive for a running back who isn’t heavily involved in the passing game and can get game-scripted out of games. That said, he has received 4, 5, 3, 3, 2 and 3 targets over the last six games and the chances of getting game-scripted out of this one are lowered.

The Titans are favored by 5 points at home. While the Texans have been one of the better teams prohibiting touchdowns in the red zone, they are 24th in rush defense DVOA and got eviscerated by Henry the last time these teams met. Henry carried 32 times for 219 yards and two touchdowns in that one and has exceeded 100 yards in each of the last two contests.

Other Options – Dalvin Cook ($7,200), Saquon Barkley ($7,900), Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,100), Alvin Kamara ($6,800), Kenneth Walker III ($6,400)

Value

Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks, $5,900 – McKinnon has scored over 30 DKFP in each of the last two games. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that McKinnon will be one of the higher-rostered players on the slate. If the projected ownership gets too high, then going in a different direction could make sense.

On paper, McKinnon checks many of the boxes. He gets the majority of the snaps on an explosive offense that is heavily favored at home. He is also the back that is involved in the passing game. Seattle has allowed the 8th-most receptions to running backs.

Other Options – JK Dobbins ($5,800), Isiah Pacheco ($5,700)

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Wide Receiver

Stud

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants, $9,300 — Jefferson has received fewer than 10 targets in only four games. He’s gone for over 100 yards receiving nine times with a high of 223 yards. He has a total of 7 touchdowns on the season.

The Giants are 24th in pass defense DVOA and 24th against No. 1 receivers. They blitz at the highest rate in the league yet are only 23rd in adjusted sack rate.

This game has the second-highest total on the slate so there should be plenty of opportunities for Jefferson to rack up those fantasy goodies.

Other Options – Stefon Diggs ($8,500), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800), DK Metcalf ($7,100)

Value

Marquise Goodwin, Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs, $4,300 – Tyler Lockett is out so Goodwin should see an increase in snap rate. He was at 59% last week and has been in the 50% range for much of the season, but he did have two games over 70%. Despite being third fiddle in the passing game, Goodwin still managed five red zone targets. Metcalf dominates in that area, but the Chiefs’ defense will likely shade his way, which could provide some opportunities for Goodwin. As mentioned in the Smith section, the Chiefs have allowed the second-highest touchdown rate in the red zone.

Other Options – JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800), DJ Moore ($5,500), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300), Darius Slayton ($5,200)

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Tight End

Stud

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks, $8,000 – Kelce is the only tight end priced above $5,500, so he’s technically the only stud on the slate. Kelce is essentially a wide receiver one. He’s had five games with double-digit targets and five contests over 100 yards receiving.

This game has the highest total on the slate and the Seahawks have been very generous to the position, having allowed the second-most fantasy points and third-most yards and touchdowns.

Value

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons, $5,500 – Oh, how the mighty have fallen. I feel compelled to write a poem about this particular tragedy, but then I thought about how gross the production for Andrews has been, and decided that he did not deserve it!

Over the first six games of the season, Andrews received double-digit targets in four of those contests, went over 100 yards twice and scored five touchdowns. That was good for 20-plus DKFPs in four of those games. Since then, he’s gone over 50 yards once, has not scored a touchdown and gone over 10 DKFP only twice. Example number 1234245245245 why premature victory dancing can be hazardous to your health.

Once a $7,000 player, Andrews is now the cheapest he’s been this season. And he gets a plus matchup as the Falcons have allowed the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most yards to tight ends.

Other Options – TJ Hockenson ($4,900), Noah Fant ($3,400)

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Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Ravens DST vs. Atlanta Falcons, $3,200 – The Ravens are favored by 7.5 points at home and will likely be facing a rookie in Desmond Ridder ($5,000), who will be making his second career start. Last week, he completed 50% of his passes and was sacked four times. The Ravens are sixth in adjusted sack rate.

Other Options – Titans DST ($3,600), 49ers DST ($3,900)

Value

Cowboys DST vs. Philadelphia Eagles, $2,600 – Jalen Hurts will likely not play in this contest due to an injury suffered last week. As a result, the Cowboys defense is mispriced. The unit is second in adjusted sack rate, fourth in pass defense DVOA and 10th in rush defense. They have scored double-digit DKFP seven times with three games over 20.

Other Options – Patriots DST ($2,700), Chiefs DST ($2,900)

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.