The Week 15 Sunday Night Football contest features a matchup between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders.
Let’s look at this game from a DraftKings NFL Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (NYG vs WAS)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
Terry McLaurin (CP $14,700)
It’s hard to not think of Terry McLaurin as a deep ball threat. With Taylor Heinicke’s propensity to fling up prayers, 50-50 balls that are more like 25-75 and not in a good way, it’s hard to trust Terry McLaurin. His 13.0 aDOT is the sixth-largest in the NFL. This does not help the narrative. Add to this, that the Giants rank eighth against deep passes (16 yards or deeper), and this pick does not make any sense.
McLaurin may not catch any deep passes on Sunday night, but he’s not solely a deep threat. He catches short passes and intermediate passes. The Giants rank 26th against short passes (16 yards or less) and 25th against WR1s. These two teams matched up two weeks ago and McLaurin caught eight passes for 105 yards and a touchdown. How did he get there? It was on routes 20 yards or shorter. Heinicke will still take his shots, but the Commanders will definitely feed McLaurin with intermediate targets against a susceptible opponent.
FLEX Plays
Brian Robinson Jr. ($8,000)
His comeback is amazing, but the narrative is more relevant for television broadcasts. What matters for DFS is his production, and he’s producing. Not only is he accumulating fantasy points on a weekly basis, but he’ll be in an advantageous position on Sunday night. Robinson faced the Giants before the Commanders’ Week 14 bye and he rushed 21 times for 96 yards in Week 13. Before that game, he rushed for 105 yards in Week 12 vs. Atlanta. Since returning to full-time status, he’s averaged 17 carries per game. That kind of volume is hard to ignore during this pass-heavy era of the NFL. It absolutely cannot be dismissed on a Showdown slate.
Saquon Barkley ($12,200)
Giants coach Brian Daboll told the media that Barkley would not have any restrictions this week. With the Giants’ offense being restricted already by the limited amount of weapons, this should mean a lot of Barkley on Sunday night. That’s been the case this season. Washington isn’t the greatest matchup, but Barkley’s potential volume in a must-win divisional game is hard to neglect on a Showdown slate.
Barkley rushed 18 times for 63 yards and a touchdown when these two teams matched up two weeks ago. He added another 18 yards on five receptions. That’s not a spectacular line, but does anyone expect spectacular lines in this game? This could be an ugly divisional showdown between two average teams. Barkley will get carries, catches and goal line work. It could be ugly, but this isn’t a beauty pageant.
Richie James ($5,200)
Super Freak has not been relevant on main slates, but Richie “Rick” James has seen his name surface on smaller slates. Following the injury of Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson, James put together a solid stat line (3 catches for 48 yards and a touchdown) replacing Robinson in garbage time. The next week, James was an intriguing value pick on the Thanksgiving Day slate. Although he wasn’t 100% healthy on the short week, he still managed to catch five passes for 41 yards and a touchdown vs. the Cowboys on the short week. He was quiet in Week 13 vs. the Commanders (three catches for 20 yards), but rebounded in Week 14 with seven catches on nine targets for 61 yards and a touchdown.
James isn’t great, but the Giants’ receiving corps is depleted and James is filling Robinson’s role in the slot. QB Daniel Jones has struggled to complete passes down field and to outside receivers. He has relied on short passing routes, and he’s heavily targeted receivers out of the slot. That was Robinson. That is now the Super Freak. This is not a pick you take home to mother, but it will never let your spirits down.
Fades
Jahan Dotson ($5,400)
It’s pretty amazing that Dotson is only $200 more expensive than Richie James. No one knew who James was a month ago and Dotson was the 16th pick overall in the 2022 draft. Dotson has battled injuries all season and has not been a consistent contributor when on the field. That makes sense given how inconsistent the Washington offense has been this season. Dotson has shown glimmers of brilliance at times in his rookie season, and those big catches will run on repeat in the frontal lobes of many DFS players as they build lineups for this Sunday Night Football Showdown Slate. Dotson is a first-round pick with a price point similar to Richie James, so Dotson will carry plenty of ownership. He does have GPP appeal because of his talent, but so far his season suggests otherwise. More often than not, he does not perform. A player that fails more than he succeeds and carries heavy ownership is the definition of a fade.
THE OUTCOME
These two teams are headed in opposite directions. It appears as though the Giants’ luck has run out and the Commanders still have plenty of wishes left. Negative regression has been brewing all season for New York. Based on the Giants’ Pythagorean Win Expectation, they are an 11 to 12 loss team. The close games and breaks have stopped going their way. The veil has been lifted, revealing an ugly sight. The true Giants are not a team that the Commanders will need to use up any of their wishes on.
Final Score: Washington 23, New York 17
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (NYG vs WAS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.