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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 15 2022 Top High-Upside DFS Contrarian Targets

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate for Week 15. I’m going to focus purely on upside plays, stacks and strategies to help tackle the largest tournaments on the slate. GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate, and finding some relatively lower-owned diamonds in the rough will be the goal of this article.

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Game Stack: Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars

Dak Prescott ($6,200) — CeeDee Lamb ($7,300) — Christian Kirk ($6,600)

This game should be a great spot for both passing offenses to break out. The Jaguars are ranked third-to-last in defensive pass DVOA on the season and have struggled mightily against No. 1 WRs. While CeeDee Lamb’s target share has dwindled a touch over the past few games he’s still ranked fourth in the league with a 28% team target share and will be facing off against a Jaguars defense that’s allowed singular games of 10 or more receptions, and 100+ yards to Amon Ra St. Brown ($7,800), Michael Pittman and Davante Adams ($9,000) already this season.

Like Lamb, those players all have team target shares over 22% and Dak Prescott should find Lamb more open than not this week with no elite cornerbacks roaming the Jacksonville secondary. Prescott has taken a small step or two back as a passer the past couple of weeks but the last time he faced off against a defense with a below-average pressure rate — who allowed over 7.0 yards per attempt — was in Week 11 against Minnesota, which he destroyed for 276 yards and two TDs on just 25 pass attempts.

Prescott’s ownership may not be that high this week either and that likely makes him the safer play over Trevor Lawrence ($6,000), who has balled out in two of his past three games but is dealing with a toe injury. Both of these quarterbacks are viable in DFS, however, as the Cowboys' defense has also taken a step back over the past couple of games. They recorded no sacks last week against Houston and allowed 7.9 yards per pass attempt to Davis Mills, who also had a 76% completion rate in Week 14.

Mills ate up Dallas with slot man Chris Moore ($4,200) last week which makes this a great time to use Christian Kirk to complete our game stack. The Jaguars have been great at spreading their targets out based on weekly matchups and Kirk should get a boost this week against a Dallas team that has yielded eight TD catches to opposing WRs over their past six games. Kirk still leads Jacksonville with a 23% team target share and should be in a good spot to push for 10+ targets with Jacksonville currently projected as +4.0 underdogs.

Quarterback: Mac Jones, New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders ($5,000)

The Raiders' pass defense heads into this week ranked last in defensive DVOA, via Football Outsiders, and is allowing an average of 277.3 yards passing over their past three games. This is a solid matchup for Mac Jones, who is available at a paltry price this week and has shown he’s capable of big games against weaker opponents. While the Patriots worked the screen game to death last week, Jones also had a couple of deep connections with Hunter Henry ($3,300 - see below) and the duo just missed out on connecting for a long TD.

The Raiders' pressure rate this year is eighth-worst in the league and it should give Jones the kind of time he enjoyed against Minnesota (which has the ninth-worst pressure rate) when he carved up the Vikings for 382 yards and 9.8 yards per attempt in Week 11. A close point spread and an offense on the other side in Las Vegas — which has the best yards per play average in the entire league over the past three weeks (6.6) — is likely to make this a good fantasy environment for Jones, who offers low ownership and tons of salary relief in big GPPs.

Running Back

Top End: Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots ($8,100)

While he remains on the injury report this week, Josh Jacobs (quad) did practice in a limited capacity early this week, which is a great sign he’s potentially starting to get over a couple of different lower leg injuries. Jacobs has been producing one of the best seasons in history at his position despite the injury issues, so any sign he may be improving in health should be taken as just another positive reason to roster him.

The Patriots ceded 5.66 yards per carry last week to James Conner ($6,900) and with a short week, will be tough to limit Jacobs, who leads the league in rushes of 10+ yards with 36. With no bye weeks and a full slate of games on Sunday, expect more spread ownership at the RB position making this a great time to add this year’s fantasy MVP to your GPP core.

Value: Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans ($5,900)

It took about half the season, but the Chiefs’ backfield has finally gained some clarity. Isaiah Pacheco is the clear early down grinder who we can project for big carries when the team is ahead. He’s now taken over 12 carries in each of his past five games and averaged over 4.5 yards per carry in four of those starts.

Pacheco ceded some work last week to Jerick McKinnon ($5,200) — who was key in most winning GPP lineups for Week 14 — but don't be shocked if the snap count and fantasy points flip back in Pacheco's direction this week. McKinnon is 30 years old and has a long history of injury issues, so expect his work to be dialed back if and when the Chiefs get up big in the second half. Given the 31.5 implied team total on Kansas City, a multiple-TD game is certainly a possibility for Pacheco who should still carry lower ownership given the big game his backfield-mate posted last week.

Wide Receiver

Top End: Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($6,700)

Godwin continues to operate as the Buccaneers’ main target. He comes into this game with 35 targets alone over his past three games and remains somewhat undervalued just based on that standard usage stat alone. The efficiency has been lacking for Godwin, but his consistency has been impressive as he’s now posted 10.0 or more DKFP in every start since Week 4.

He’ll be going up against a Bengals secondary that has been great at limiting scores but has yielded 14.5 yards per catch to opposing WRs. Last week they allowed another athletic, well-rounded receiver in Donovan Peoples-Jones to exceed the 100-yard mark and ceded multiple big plays downfield the week prior to Marquez-Valdes Scantling. It doesn't look like a great breakout spot on paper but with the Bengals’ offense likely to keep the Bucs in a heavy pass mode late into this game there will be an opportunity for Godwin to take advantage of a somewhat average secondary. He makes for a great contrarian pay-up option given the current low sentiment around this Bucs offense.

Top Value: Drake London, Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints ($4,700)

The Falcons will be beginning the Desmond Ridder ($5,200) era this week as the team has officially placed Marcus Mariota on IR. Ridder profiles as a pocket passer who averaged 8.6 yards per attempt in his final year in college and 8.8 yards per attempt in his last preseason start this August. He should be an upgrade for fellow rookie Drake London, whose salary remains well under $5,000 this week despite the potentially drastic quarterback upgrade the Falcons are about the receive.

The Falcons had also been making a more concerted attempt the past couple of weeks to get more balls downfield to London, who accumulated 95 yards in his last game and had four of his catches come on balls that traveled more than 10 yards through the air. He comes with obvious risk but remains a solid upside value for GPPs in Week 15.

Tight End: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders ($3,300)

The Patriots could potentially be without Davante Parker (concussion - questionable), who is averaging over 18.0 yards per catch on the season. New England’s other field stretcher of late has been TE Hunter Henry, who is currently setting a career-high with 14.5 yards per catch. Henry’s target volume hasn’t been ideal as he’s only received more than five balls thrown his way in a game once this season. However, Henry would certainly benefit from a Parker absence and has been extremely efficient in fantasy of late, as he’s now scored over 10.0 DKFP in two of his last three games — despite recording just three catches in both of those outings.

The Raiders' secondary is also in shambles right now just from a performance and health perspective. They’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the TE position this year and ceded five receptions for 80 yards to another solid downfield pass-catching TE in Gerald Everett ($4,300) two weeks ago. Henry’s breakout game feels like it’s coming soon and with the Raiders’ offense likely to keep New England passing late into this game, this is a great matchup to chance that some of the big game upside he flashed in 2021 shines through.

Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles Chargers ($2,900) vs Tennessee Titans

When looking at which DSTs to consider for your GPP lineups, it’s never a bad idea to consider how the ownership on a slate is going to break down. The Chargers' passing game is going to be a popular stack this week considering the Titans have now allowed consecutive games with 350+ yards and 3 TDs to opposing quarterbacks. That will make the Los Angeles DST a solid leverage play at this position in what is shaping up to be a potentially great matchup for them as well.

The Titans’ Ryan Tannehill ($5,300) is banged up with an ankle issue but does sound like he’s likely to play. He ceded an INT and a fumble in his last start and has averaged under 6.8 yards per attempt in the last two games. The Chargers have been better at getting pressure at home, where they’ve averaged 2.5 sacks per game in six home starts. Their defense played well last week in limiting an explosive Dolphins offense and will now go up against a mediocre quarterback who is less than 100%. This is the time to deploy the unit in big fields where a defensive score could get you big leverage over lineups that are heavy on the Chargers' passing game.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.